Trent Dilfer calls out the run-loving dinosaurs

AdamJT13

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tyke1doe;3183004 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Wasn't Team A the Patriots of 2007 and Team B the Giants of 2007?

2007 NFL INDEX STATS
Passing offense:
1. New England - 586 403 68.8 4731
21. NY Giants - 544 302 55.5 3154

Rushing offense:
4. NY Giants - 469 2148
13. New England - 451 1849

The Patriots were clearly the more superior passing team. The Giants were clearly the better rushing team. Conversely, the Patriots had an average rushing team and the Giants had a below average passing team.

Oh, and for good measure ...

The Pats had the No. 4 ranked defense overall, the Giants had the No. 7 ranked defense overall.

Remind me who won the Super Bowl again?

That's just another example of passing being the key to winning. The Patriots used the best passing offense in the league and a top-five pass defense to go 16-0 even though they had an average running game and a below-average run defense. The Giants, who were barely average in passing and a little above-average in pass defense, but top-five in rushing and rushing defense, went 10-6 and barely made the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the Giants averaged only 3.3, 3.9, 3.4 and 3.5 yards per rush. But they passed better than their opponent in EVERY playoff game, including the Super Bowl. If they hadn't shut down the Patriots' passing game AND passed better than them in that game, they wouldn't have won. Remember, the Giants were losing before Eli got lucky and went 5-for-9 for 77 yards and a last-minute touchdown. And the Giants still might not have won if they hadn't held Brady to 0-for-3 and sacked him once after that touchdown. As is almost always the case, the passing games were the difference in that game.
 

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AdamJT13;3183393 said:
That's just another example of passing being the key to winning. The Patriots used the best passing offense in the league and a top-five pass defense to go 16-0 even though they had an average running game and a below-average run defense. The Giants, who were barely average in passing and a little above-average in pass defense, but top-five in rushing and rushing defense, went 10-6 and barely made the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the Giants averaged only 3.3, 3.9, 3.4 and 3.5 yards per rush. But they passed better than their opponent in EVERY playoff game, including the Super Bowl. If they hadn't shut down the Patriots' passing game AND passed better than them in that game, they wouldn't have won. Remember, the Giants were losing before Eli got lucky and went 5-for-9 for 77 yards and a last-minute touchdown. And the Giants still might not have won if they hadn't held Brady to 0-for-3 and sacked him once after that touchdown. As is almost always the case, the passing games were the difference in that game.

In the 2007 postseason, the Giants averaged 3.5 yards per rush, which ranked in the top half (6th) among the entire field of 12 playoff teams. The Patriots averaged 4.5 yards per rush, which ranked 3rd. Additionally, the Giants and Patriots ranked 6th and 4th respectively in rushing yards per game. Both teams played in the Super Bowl.

Conversely, the Colts, Steelers, and Commanders ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th respectively in passing yards per game, and 8th, 11th, and 12th respectively in rushing yards per game. And they were one and done.

Once again, I agree with your underlying premise, which holds the passing game is more important than the running game. However, I still contend that a team is more likely to be successful if, in addition to having a good passing game, it can at least challenge with the running game.
 

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you all know this is a passing league because the NFl has made rule changed to favor the passing game. You can not so much a look at a WR the wwrong way with out getting a yellow flag
 

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Switz;3183447 said:
you all know this is a passing league because the NFl has made rule changed to favor the passing game. You can not so much a look at a WR the wwrong way with out getting a yellow flag

I think we can all agree on this point. The winning teams is generally the one that passes the most efficiently and effectively.
 

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ScipioCowboy;3183428 said:
In the 2007 postseason, the Giants averaged 3.5 yards per rush, which ranked in the top half (6th) among the entire field of 12 playoff teams. The Patriots averaged 4.5 yards per rush, which ranked 3rd. Additionally, the Giants and Patriots ranked 6th and 4th respectively in rushing yards per game. Both teams played in the Super Bowl.

Conversely, the Colts, Steelers, and Commanders ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th respectively in passing yards per game, and 8th, 11th, and 12th respectively in rushing yards per game. And they were one and done.

Yards per game isn't the relevant stat. Teams run more when they're winning and pass more when they're losing. But they're usually winning BECAUSE they were more effective passing.

The Colts were far less effective passing than the Chargers, which is why they lost. Indy averaged 8.4 YPA and threw two INTs; San Diego averaged a whopping 13.6 YPA and was intercepted only once. When you average 5.2 more YPA than your opponent, I'd venture to say you almost never lose.

The Commanders were less effective passing than the Seahawks and lost.

The Steelers were slightly more effective passing than the Jaguars, but Jacksonville scored a defensive touchdown and won on a last-minute field goal. When the team that passes better loses, that's often the case -- the winning team scored a defensive or special teams touchdown, or barely won, or both.

That Steelers-Jaguars game was the only game of the 2007 postseason when the team that passed the ball more effectively lost -- and you could argue that an interception return for a touchdown was the difference in that game.


Once again, I agree with your underlying premise, which holds the passing game is more important than the running game. However, I still contend that a team is more likely to be successful if, in addition to having a good passing game, it can at least challenge with the running game.

So how do you explain the Colts and Chargers being a combined 26-4, with winning streaks this season of 14 and 10 games, respectively? They're two of the three worst rushing teams. The second-worst also has a winning record.

All of these theories about needing to run and stop the run sound great, but there's no evidence to support them. All of the evidence shows that running and stopping the run have very low correlation to winning in the NFL. And it shows that passing and stopping the pass have a very high correlation. Arguing anything else is simply ignoring the proven facts.
 

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AdamJT13;3182947 said:
It has very little correlation to winning in the NFL.

There is an imbalance in today's game - passing efficiency is now significantly more important than rushing efficiency.

I am curious, though, Adam, if you have tried to identify the conditions under which rushing game efficiency is most important (relative to the overall marginal importance of the running game). Said another way, if you had a cousin who was a running game coordinator, which facets of the run game would you tell him were especially important (relative to other aspects of the run game)?

For example, I would imagine that the ability to successfully run on 3rd or 4th down in short yardage situations would be more important than average yards per rush on 1st down.
 

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AdamJT13;3183525 said:
The Colts were far less effective passing than the Chargers, which is why they lost. Indy averaged 8.4 YPA and threw two INTs; San Diego averaged a whopping 13.6 YPA and was intercepted only once. When you average 5.2 more YPA than your opponent, I'd venture to say you almost never lose.

How many times has it been said or written that Romo is as good as he is because of his yards-per-attempt?

Many that I know of.

It's not yards per game or completion percentage, but yards per attempt.

I'd like to see the "Run the ball and stop the run" proponents give more teeth to their argument... If there is "teeth" to be had. :)
 

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AdamJT13;3181195 said:
Nope. If you can pass and stop the pass, it barely matters how well you can run or stop the run.

I mostly agree with this. Big plays seem to drive offenses these days. Long drives inevitably seem to suffer a penalty or some other type of negative play and result in passing situations.

That said, big plays in the run game work every bit as well as big plays in the passing game so defenses have to be able to stop big running plays from developing. "3 yards and cloud of dust" does not work in today's NFL. 9-15 yard running plays work quite well. Now if we could only tell in advance which ones were going to work that way.....;)
 

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AdamJT13;3182707 said:
No. There's very little, if any, correlation.

Really? You are saying that a team that has very little threat to run can't be much more easily defended against the pass? This what your stats don't show. A team that CAN run the ball doesn't need to put up gawdy running stats because they can get more mileage from the passing game. Why? Because the opposition HAS to play to stop the run as well as the pass because the threat is there.




If they used that strategy, that's probably why they're losers.

Well..... this really doesn't address my point at all. The point is, a team that does both effectively is much harder to defend then a one dimensional team. You have to stop the other team, period. If that other team can only hurt you one way then they are much easier to stop. This is not rocket surgery here.



It's absolutely true, if the Pro Bowl QB and receivers are clearly better than the QB and receivers on the "balanced" team.

Would you rather have Peyton Manning, Andre Johnson and Troy Hambrick, or have Donovan McNabb, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Adrian Peterson?

I'll take Manning's squad and beat you the majority of the time.

We'd have to see about that. How about PM, AJ and Peterson? Wouldn't the addition of Peterson instantly free up things even more for PM and AJ to do their magic. Is th opposition going to pay anywhere near as much attention to the play fake to Hambrick as it will to Peterson?




If the cap wasn't a factor and we could trade Barber for a quality starting receiver, I'd do it today. Jones and Choice are still on their rookie contracts, so there's no reason to get rid of them.


Nice sidestep. This discussion is not about the cap. It is about running vs passing in today's NFL.

The fact that you would hold on to what some might say are our best two backs instead of giving them up to improve our passing game tells the story.



I agree that you have to pass to win today. I don't agree that you can get to and win a championship without a solid running game. That doesn't mean that the running game will put up huge numbers in the SB or Championship game but if teams don't respect your running game then you done win squat.

This is what the stats don't say.
 

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Vtwin;3184004 said:
I agree that you have to pass to win today. I don't agree that you can get to and win a championship without a solid running game. That doesn't mean that the running game will put up huge numbers in the SB or Championship game but if teams don't respect your running game then you done win squat.

This is what the stats don't say.

I understand what you're saying Vtwin and there is some merit there...

But what do you mean "solid running game"?

See that's part of the argument the pro-running game folks are making but are not defining.

The term "solid running game" can mean a 100 different things to a 100 different fans.

Translate that into numbers and give examples over the last few seasons.

I think that would be most helpful in defending your stance.
 

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MichaelWinicki;3184141 said:
I understand what you're saying Vtwin and there is some merit there...

But what do you mean "solid running game"?

See that's part of the argument the pro-running game folks are making but are not defining.

The term "solid running game" can mean a 100 different things to a 100 different fans.

Translate that into numbers and give examples over the last few seasons.

I think that would be most helpful in defending your stance.


I don't have quick and easy access to those numbers nor the time to do the research right now.

Some have made the statement that the ability to run or to be able to stop the run means very little. They base their arguments on the stats.

The point I am trying to make is that it often can't be translated into numbers. Say a very good running and good passing team comes to town. The home team is wary of the running game and plans to take that away. (like the Giants did to us a few weeks ago) What are you going to do as the O coordinator? Are you going to keep pounding the ball or are you going to take what the D is giving you and use your passing game?

I'll assume you are going to take what the D is giving you and pass the ball. Since you have a decent passing game it is likely that you will win. Now the stats for that game will show you as being a very good passing team and a poor running team but it is mostly because the D chose to not let you use your strength, the running game. It's only because you run so well that the passing game is effective. That is what the stats don't tell you.

Does anyone think Eli and the passing game was the strength of the 07 Giants? I bet most every team they faced during that run focused on stopping the Giants running game and forcing Eli to win the game. He made some plays and got some breaks and voila, the Giants are suddenly a passing team.

Again I'll agree that you absolutely have to be able to pass the ball to win consistently but you have to be able to run to keep defenses honest and to kill the clock when you have the lead. If you try to accomplish these things with the pass only you might get away with against the bottm feeders but quality defenses wil make you pay for going to that well to often.

A solid running game might be defined as a running game that forces the opposition to fear it a bit.
 

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ZeroClub;3183610 said:
There is an imbalance in today's game - passing efficiency is now significantly more important than rushing efficiency.

I am curious, though, Adam, if you have tried to identify the conditions under which rushing game efficiency is most important (relative to the overall marginal importance of the running game). Said another way, if you had a cousin who was a running game coordinator, which facets of the run game would you tell him were especially important (relative to other aspects of the run game)?

For example, I would imagine that the ability to successfully run on 3rd or 4th down in short yardage situations would be more important than average yards per rush on 1st down.

That's when running and stopping the run is important -- in short-yardage situations. If you can gain 1 or 2 yards to pick up a first down on a run, that extends your possession.

If you can convert on short-yardage runs and not consistently lose yardage on your other carries, that's usually about as well as you need to run to be successful. Anything more than that is secondary to being able to pass the ball well.
 

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Vtwin;3184004 said:
Really? You are saying that a team that has very little threat to run can't be much more easily defended against the pass? This what your stats don't show. A team that CAN run the ball doesn't need to put up gawdy running stats because they can get more mileage from the passing game. Why? Because the opposition HAS to play to stop the run as well as the pass because the threat is there.

Well..... this really doesn't address my point at all. The point is, a team that does both effectively is much harder to defend then a one dimensional team. You have to stop the other team, period. If that other team can only hurt you one way then they are much easier to stop. This is not rocket surgery here.

Like I said, it's a nice theory, but the stats show that there's not much correlation. Indy, San Diego and Houston are the three worst rushing teams this season -- so why aren't their passing games easy to stop?


We'd have to see about that. How about PM, AJ and Peterson? Wouldn't the addition of Peterson instantly free up things even more for PM and AJ to do their magic. Is th opposition going to pay anywhere near as much attention to the play fake to Hambrick as it will to Peterson?

As I've said, being better at running the ball is better than being worse, but the difference is marginal compared to being even better at passing. For example, if my team was good at passing and good at running, and I had the opportunity to improve one of those areas to "great" and reduce the other to "lousy," I'd improve my passing game in a heartbeat. I'd do it even if I had the option of keeping both at "good." Being great at passing and lousy at running is better than being merely good at passing, even if you're great at running. If I can't possibly be better at passing, then of course I'd want to be better at running.



Nice sidestep. This discussion is not about the cap. It is about running vs passing in today's NFL.

The fact that you would hold on to what some might say are our best two backs instead of giving them up to improve our passing game tells the story.

I didn't sidestep. If you wanted to put certain limitations and conditions on my opinion, you should have said that when you asked for it.


I agree that you have to pass to win today. I don't agree that you can get to and win a championship without a solid running game. That doesn't mean that the running game will put up huge numbers in the SB or Championship game but if teams don't respect your running game then you done win squat.

So I guess that means your definition of "a solid running game" is any running game ranked in the top 31? Like, say, 29th or 31st, which is what last year's Super Bowl participants ranked?
 

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T-RO;3180999 said:
To sum up Dilfer said that some people needed to get their heads out of the 80's. It's a passing league.

He said the Vikings better know what they are: a passing team and it's on Brett Favre's shoulders.

Dilfer says you create air in the defense when you open it up. The pass sets up the run but you've got to forget about traditional notions of run/pass balance. Throw the rock.

Let's see: Cowher says it's a passing league now. Dungee too. Bilichick, Aikman. Dilfer. I guess the dinos can jump on the bus with Brad Childress.

You evolve or die. I support the Cowboy Air Force and Garrett's desire to spread the field and open the offense. Conservatism = Fear = Death (I am ONLY talking football here guys)

Go Cowboys!

It's a passing league but if you can't run the ball in the 4th quarter good luck winning games.
 

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T-RO;3180999 said:
To sum up Dilfer said that some people needed to get their heads out of the 80's. It's a passing league.

He said the Vikings better know what they are: a passing team and it's on Brett Favre's shoulders.

Dilfer says you create air in the defense when you open it up. The pass sets up the run but you've got to forget about traditional notions of run/pass balance. Throw the rock.

Let's see: Cowher says it's a passing league now. Dungee too. Bilichick, Aikman. Dilfer. I guess the dinos can jump on the bus with Brad Childress.

You evolve or die. I support the Cowboy Air Force and Garrett's desire to spread the field and open the offense. Conservatism = Fear = Death (I am ONLY talking football here guys)

Go Cowboys!
the only problem with that philosophy...is a mangled qb laying on the ground, after getting hit for the 28th time.

there's nothing wrong with a balanced attack...it's a good thing.

my real problem with garrett?...not NEAR enough short passes, slants, 3 step drops, etc.
 

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AdamJT13;3183393 said:
That's just another example of passing being the key to winning. The Patriots used the best passing offense in the league and a top-five pass defense to go 16-0 even though they had an average running game and a below-average run defense. The Giants, who were barely average in passing and a little above-average in pass defense, but top-five in rushing and rushing defense, went 10-6 and barely made the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the Giants averaged only 3.3, 3.9, 3.4 and 3.5 yards per rush. But they passed better than their opponent in EVERY playoff game, including the Super Bowl. If they hadn't shut down the Patriots' passing game AND passed better than them in that game, they wouldn't have won. Remember, the Giants were losing before Eli got lucky and went 5-for-9 for 77 yards and a last-minute touchdown. And the Giants still might not have won if they hadn't held Brady to 0-for-3 and sacked him once after that touchdown. As is almost always the case, the passing games were the difference in that game.

First, I didn't say the passing game isn't important. I think our point is that the ability for a team to run and have success in the run opens up the passing game.

Second, actually, the Giants didn't pass better than the Patriots in that game.
The Patriots had 266 yards passing compared to 255 yards by the Giants.
The Giants, however, doubled the Patriot's rushing yards 91 to 45.

Third, I would argue it's the Giants' ability to run that opened up its passing game. Whereas it was the Patriots inability to run that hurt them when their passing game wasn't working. This appears pretty evident when a team with as prolific a passing game as the Patriots couldn't score more than 14 points against the Giants.

Fourth, I find it interesting that you say that the Giants were losing before Eli got lucky. Uh, the Patriots were averaging double digit leads during the season and had a virtual cake walk through the playoffs.
And yet with their vaunted passing game they only had a four point lead versus the Giants.
The Giants played it right. Its defense kept the game close (a defense ranked lower than the Patriots, I might add), used its running game to open up its passing game and won the Super Bowl.

In short, in the game where it mattered most, the team with the better rushing stats won over the team with the better passing stats. Beyond the game itself, the team with the better rushing stats did better than the team with the better passing stats.

Yes, if you have a strong running game it opens up the passing game. But having a better passing game and not a necessarily strong running game doesn't exactly result in ultimate victory. We have the Giants vs. Patriots Super Bowl results as proof.
And, remember, the Patriots had a better ranked defense than the Giants but a superior passing offense than the Giants and yet that passing offense didn't do squat.
 

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tyke1doe;3185550 said:
First, I didn't say the passing game isn't important. I think our point is that the ability for a team to run and have success in the run opens up the passing game.

Second, actually, the Giants didn't pass better than the Patriots in that game.
The Patriots had 266 yards passing compared to 255 yards by the Giants.
The Giants, however, doubled the Patriot's rushing yards 91 to 45.

The Giants were much more efficient. The Patriots only averaged 4.3 yards per passing play. The Giants were almost 2 1/2 yards better... at 6.7 yards per passing play.

That's a big difference.

Was it the Giants 26 rushes for 91 yards that won them the game or was it their vastly more efficient passing attack?
 

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If you can run for 4+ yards a carry consistently, you completely DOMINATE the game. This is why running is so dangerous, because of its potential.
 

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tyke1doe;3185550 said:
Second, actually, the Giants didn't pass better than the Patriots in that game.
The Patriots had 266 yards passing compared to 255 yards by the Giants.
The Giants, however, doubled the Patriot's rushing yards 91 to 45.
You're confusing total yards with effectiveness. The Giants had only 35 pass plays. The Patriots had 51 pass plays. That's 16 more pass plays to gain 11 more yards. The Giants were more effective passing. Even when adjusted for the interception Eli threw, they still were more effective.


Third, I would argue it's the Giants' ability to run that opened up its passing game. Whereas it was the Patriots inability to run that hurt them when their passing game wasn't working. This appears pretty evident when a team with as prolific a passing game as the Patriots couldn't score more than 14 points against the Giants.

Again, that's a nice theory, but it's not backed up by facts. Look at the last game of the regular season, in which the Patriots' offense scored 38 points. The Patriots rushed for 1.7 yards per attempt (44 total yards), but they averaged 8.0 yards per attempt as Brady went 32-for-42 for 356 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Patriots actually rushed better in the Super Bowl (2.8 YPC) but were far less effective passing. Obviously, that had nothing to do with their running game.

In the Patriots' two worst rushing games of the regular season that year, against Pittsburgh and Dallas, they averaged 2.4 and 2.6 yards per carry, but they averaged 8.7 and 7.6 yards per pass attempt, put up 34 and 48 offensive points, and Brady passed for 399 and 388 yards, respectively.

Fourth, I find it interesting that you say that the Giants were losing before Eli got lucky. Uh, the Patriots were averaging double digit leads during the season and had a virtual cake walk through the playoffs.
And yet with their vaunted passing game they only had a four point lead versus the Giants.
The Giants played it right. Its defense kept the game close (a defense ranked lower than the Patriots, I might add), used its running game to open up its passing game and won the Super Bowl.

In short, in the game where it mattered most, the team with the better rushing stats won over the team with the better passing stats. Beyond the game itself, the team with the better rushing stats did better than the team with the better passing stats.

Yes, if you have a strong running game it opens up the passing game. But having a better passing game and not a necessarily strong running game doesn't exactly result in ultimate victory. We have the Giants vs. Patriots Super Bowl results as proof.
And, remember, the Patriots had a better ranked defense than the Giants but a superior passing offense than the Giants and yet that passing offense didn't do squat.

Like I said, when the Patriots' passing attack worked as usual, it produced a 16-0 record. The Giants' strong running game produced a 10-6 record in the regular season.

In the Super Bowl, the Patriots' passing game didn't work -- but it had nothing to do their running game working or not working. And the unusual success of the Giants' passing game had nothing to do with their running game working or not working. Before the drive on which the Giants took the lead, the Patriots had been the more effective team passing (although not great, they still had passed better than the Giants, which is why they held the lead). However, from that point on, the Giants averaged 7.6 yards per pass play, and the Patriots averaged minus-2.5. None of that had to do with the running games, because both defenses knew every play would be a pass except one 2-yard carry by Brandon Jacobs in short yardage.

Because they passed successfully, the Giants were able to score the go-ahead touchdown. And because they couldn't pass successfully, the Patriots went backward when they had their chance to tie or win. And as a result of that drive, the Giants finished as the more effective passing team.
 
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