Turnover Differential Improvement

Crown Royal

Crown Royal

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Our turnover differential in 2013 was +10. Good enough for 6th in the NFC and 8th in the NFL. In 2012, our turnover differential was -13. We lost 5 of our 8 games where we were even or positive on turnovers.

We improved by 23 turnovers in the single most correlative statistic for winning in pro football, and came up with the same record.

That is one of the most astounding things about this team I have ever seen.
 
Crown Royal

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We were 5-1 in the NFCE and 3-7 in other divisions.

1-3 against the AFCW
1-3 against the NFCN
1-0 against the NFCW (St. Louis)
0-1 against the NFCS (NOLA)

We were at least competitive against the AFCW. The NFCN was weird, but I think the Chicago game was most indicative of our style. We basically can't play with good teams. That tells me that we over-rate our talent by a large margin, we have just enough difference makers to eek out some wins, and we matchup well within the division. Serious personnel problems.

Just an incredibly weird team.
 
Crown Royal

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I'm just going to keep updating this with a few stats I find that interest me. Check this out. The Cowboys ranked dead last in the NFL on third down attempts with 180. That's 17 less than the next team, CHicago, at 197. Those are the ONLY two teams below 200 third down attempts. The key difference between those two teams is that CHicago converted 42% of the time, while Dallas converted only 35% of the time.

I am trying to find average distance on third down comparatives. We were 26th in the league in TOP, but the margins there are not huge. Not sure if we just weren't on the field enough or if we stayed out of third down scenarios.
 
Crown Royal

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Heh - I answered my own question. The Dallas Cowboys 2013 ran fewer plays from scrimmage than ANY TEAM IN FOOTBALL. Number 32 with 957 plays. Basically, defense couldn't get off the field, offense couldn't stay on it.
 
perrykemp

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Crown Royal said:
Heh - I answered my own question. The Dallas Cowboys 2013 ran fewer plays from scrimmage than ANY TEAM IN FOOTBALL. Number 32 with 957 plays. Basically, defense couldn't get off the field, offense couldn't stay on it.
Click to expand...

That's what happens when you have a defense that gives up a ton of yards on defense and basically refuses to run it on offense.
 
percyhoward

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These stats have higher correlations to winning than turnover differential.

points per drive
offense: 2.40 (3rd)
defense 2.29 (26th)

pass rating
offense: 95.7 (7th)
defense: 96.0 (26th)

drive success rate (percentage of plays that result in 1st down or TD)
offense: 32.0% (4th)
defense: 33.2% (32nd)

win probability added
offense: 2.60 (12th)
defense: 3.46 (26th)

expected points added
offense: 96.2 (8th)
defense: 126.9 (30th)

adjusted net yards per pass attempt
offense: 6.6 (9th)
defense: 7.0 (29th)
 
TheMarathonContinues

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If there's some good to take away from this year? The improvement in special teams, turnovers and penalties. And still 8-8. Its a prime example of this team. They fix one leak and another one or two pop right back up. I remember there was a time when special teams and penalties were this teams big problem.
 
perrykemp

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rocyaice said:
If there's some good to take away from this year? The improvement in special teams, turnovers and penalties. And still 8-8. Its a prime example of this team. They fix one leak and another one or two pop right back up. I remember there was a time when special teams and penalties were this teams big problem.
Click to expand...

percyhoward said:
These stats have higher correlations to winning than turnover differential.

points per drive
offense: 2.40 (3rd)
defense 2.29 (26th)

pass rating
offense: 95.7 (7th)
defense: 96.0 (26th)

drive success rate (percentage of plays that result in 1st down or TD)
offense: 32.0% (4th)
defense: 33.2% (32nd)

win probability added
offense: 2.60 (12th)
defense: 3.46 (26th)

expected points added
offense: 96.2 (8th)
defense: 126.9 (30th)

adjusted net yards per pass attempt
offense: 6.6 (9th)
defense: 7.0 (29th)
Click to expand...

Isn't passing rating differential supposedly the holy grail of NFL team stats used to measure/project success?

The Cowboys ended up with a negative differential of -0.3.
 
Crown Royal

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percyhoward said:
These stats have higher correlations to winning than turnover differential.

points per drive
offense: 2.40 (3rd)
defense 2.29 (26th)

pass rating
offense: 95.7 (7th)
defense: 96.0 (26th)

drive success rate (percentage of plays that result in 1st down or TD)
offense: 32.0% (4th)
defense: 33.2% (32nd)

win probability added
offense: 2.60 (12th)
defense: 3.46 (26th)

expected points added
offense: 96.2 (8th)
defense: 126.9 (30th)

adjusted net yards per pass attempt
offense: 6.6 (9th)
defense: 7.0 (29th)
Click to expand...

Wow. Just, wow.

Even a middle of the road defense and we would have flown into the playoffs.
 
TheMarathonContinues

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perrykemp said:
Isn't passing rating differential supposedly the holy grail of NFL team stats used to measure/project success?

The Cowboys ended up with a negative differential of -0.3.
Click to expand...

I've actually never heard anyone use the "pass rating differential" stat.
 
TheMarathonContinues

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Crown Royal said:
Wow. Just, wow.

Even a middle of the road defense and we would have flown into the playoffs.
Click to expand...

Funny thing is, there were a few games where the D actually was middle of the road. Its that Bronco's, Aint's, Chargers games where they just looked like the worst in history.
 
perrykemp

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khiladi

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Essentially, if one goes by most yards given up we were the worst defense in history. If one goes by passing rating differential, we weren't.
 
khiladi

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percyhoward

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Crown Royal said:
Confession.

I made this thread because I wanted percyhoward to have a playground.
Click to expand...
I was waiting for Football Outsiders to post their drive stats, but I just went ahead and used the ones at Sporting Charts (whose stats will be a little different, and I'm guessing also less accurate). I've been following points per drive and two other differential stats and posting this stuff under "Bottom Line Stats."

Since 2008, there had been 37 teams that finished the season ranked among the top 12 in pass rating differential, turnover differential, and points-per-drive differential. All 37 teams made the playoffs or won at least 10 games. This year, there were six more teams that finished in the top 12 in all three categories. All six won at least 10 games and made the playoffs. 37-for-37 becomes 43-for-43.

Seattle (1st, 1st, 2nd)
Philadelphia (4th, 4th, 11th)
San Francisco (5th, 4th, 4th)
Kansas City (7th, 2nd, 5th)
Carolina (11th, 6th, 3rd)
New England (12th, 8th, 8th)

Dallas (18th, 9th, 14th)
 
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