Turnover Differential Improvement

[JBS]

Turnovers seemed to be way down the last 6 weeks or so.

But even when the turnovers were high-our win % was about the same...

 

[Crown Royal]

Percy can hind anything on average distance to third down and benchmarks league wide for that?

 

[percyhoward]

Percy can hind anything on average distance to third down and benchmarks league wide for that?

Average to-go distance on 3rd down in the NFL this year was 7.18 yards.

Cowboys' average was 7.52 yards to go, which was 7th-longest.

 

[Crown Royal]

Average to-go distance on 3rd down in the NFL this year was 7.18 yards.

Cowboys' average was 7.52 yards to go, which was 7th-longest.

Just saw this on Bob's blog.

...it is interesting to note that on 1st Down, the Cowboys ranked #2 in the entire league for efficiency. This means, that on 1st Downs, they had what are called "successful plays" (4 yards or more) over 53% of the time. Only New Orleans (53.6%) was slightly better and the rest of the league was worse. The league averaged 46% and playoff teams for 2013 averaged 48%. 1st Down - a down which we would argue is easily the Cowboys most balanced (which might be arguing the tallest dwarf) - is a down they were quite successful at, even more so than Denver.

On 2nd down, you might be surprised to learn that the Cowboys are again ranked #2 in the entire NFL. This time, the Denver Broncos were the one team in all of football that ranked higher, as Peyton Manning's offense converted 2nd downs into new 1st downs on 41.2% of occasions. The Cowboys were right there, though, with 36.7, where a league average is 31.2% and a team like the Baltimore Ravens sits 32nd at a pitiful 23%.

So, let's think about this for a moment. In a season where the Cowboys were 2nd in the entire NFL on 1st down and 2nd in the entire NFL on 2nd Downs, they still were near the bottom of the league in 10-play drives (29th), plays per scoring drive (29th), rushes + completions (29th), and maybe most notably, finished below league average in yards per game with just 341 yards per contest (the league averages 348 and playoff teams are at 377). How can this make sense? How can they do so well in early downs and distances, and yet underperform as an offense overall?

This offense is weird.

 

[percyhoward]

...it is interesting to note that on 1st Down, the Cowboys ranked #2 in the entire league for efficiency. This means, that on 1st Downs, they had what are called "successful plays" (4 yards or more) over 53% of the time. Only New Orleans (53.6%) was slightly better and the rest of the league was worse. The league averaged 46% and playoff teams for 2013 averaged 48%. 1st Down - a down which we would argue is easily the Cowboys most balanced (which might be arguing the tallest dwarf) - is a down they were quite successful at, even more so than Denver.

On 2nd down, you might be surprised to learn that the Cowboys are again ranked #2 in the entire NFL. This time, the Denver Broncos were the one team in all of football that ranked higher, as Peyton Manning's offense converted 2nd downs into new 1st downs on 41.2% of occasions. The Cowboys were right there, though, with 36.7, where a league average is 31.2% and a team like the Baltimore Ravens sits 32nd at a pitiful 23%.

This was first brought up on this forum three weeks ago. (Jeez, keep up, Bob)

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/bottom-line-stats-12-games.276459/

How can they do so well in early downs and distances, and yet underperform as an offense overall?

That should read "underperformed on 3rd downs," which only made up 18.8% of the offense's plays this year. When he says the offense underperformed "overall," Sturm is ignoring what happened on the other 81.2% of the plays. But there's nothing wrong with his logic that if we can be that good on 1st and 2nd, then we should be a lot better on 3rd.

 

[DallasJ7]

It takes a special kind of futility to have the massive improvement we had in turnover differential and red zone efficiency (#3 in the NFL), and not improve your record by one game in a division that was even worse than last year. I know it's hard to win with such a poor pass defense, but jeez.

 

[Future]

I dont think the change in turnovers is nearly as night and day as people make it out to be.

The Giants game was an anomaly, and they were +4 against Detroit. If those are even, this team is just +3 and middle of the road, which makes a lot more sense.

And the turnover margin doesn't mean diddly poo if you don't get points out of them and you don't play any defense.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

It takes a special kind of futility to have the massive improvement we had in turnover differential and red zone efficiency (#3 in the NFL), and not improve your record by one game in a division that was even worse than last year. I know it's hard to win with such a poor pass defense, but jeez.

The poor pass defense was a big part of it.

But keep in mind the team was equally horrendous vs the run. 6th worst in the NFL in rushing yards given up and 3rd worst in the NFL in yards given up per carry at 4.7

The great turnover differential was undermined by a horrible defensive performance across the board.

 

[dragon_mikal]

Wow. Just, wow.

Even a middle of the road defense and we would have flown into the playoffs.

Been saying that for weeks.

 

[percyhoward]

It takes a special kind of futility to have the massive improvement we had in turnover differential and red zone efficiency (#3 in the NFL), and not improve your record by one game in a division that was even worse than last year. I know it's hard to win with such a poor pass defense, but jeez.

That #3 in the red zone is for the offense only. Defense ranked 27th in the red zone.

Filter out all the opponents' possessions that ended with a turnover. Defense ranked 31st in touchdown percentage.
163 drives 50 TD (31%) 31st in NFL

 

[DallasJ7]

That #3 in the red zone is for the offense only. Defense ranked 27th in the red zone.

Filter out all the opponents' possessions that ended with a turnover. Defense ranked 31st in touchdown percentage.
163 drives 50 TD (31%) 31st in NFL

Yeah, I was only talking about offensive red zone efficiency because that and turnover differential were two areas where fans were really looking for this team to improve. And they did - significantly.

As poor as our defense was last year, you'd have hoped that such a great improvement in those categories would make a difference, even if you anticipated a poor defense again this year. But in came the very special Cowboys 2013 defense. Defensive RZE does look like one of the categories where the drop-off from last year was the greatest.

 

[AdamJT13]

When he says the offense underperformed "overall," Sturm is ignoring what happened on the other 81.2% of the plays.

He's also using the wrong measurements if he thinks the offense underperformed. (Yes, you can claim any offense "should have" done better, but compared with the rest of the league, our offense did not underperform at all.) We finished fourth in points per possession and eighth in fewest turnovers per possession. Only two other offenses finished in the top eight in those stats (New Orleans and Philadelphia). What are the main goals of an offense? Scoring points and not turning the ball over. We did both of those things every well.