TWill's catchable targets

[percyhoward]

Look who ranks 5th in catchable targets among the league's 50 most-targeted wide receivers.

1 Amendola 61 of 73 83.6%
2 Humphreys TB 58 of 72 80.6%
3 Tate DET 88 of 110 80.0%
4 Cobb GB 64 of 80 80.0%
5 Williams DAL 56 of 72 77.8%
6 Hill KC 79 of 102 77.4%
7 Kupp LAR 69 of 90 76.7%
8 Thomas NO 100 of 131 76.3%
9 Allen SD 103 of 135 76.3%
10 Crowder WAS 69 of 91 75.8%

And most of these guys' average depth of target is shorter (or shallower) than TWill's 9.2 yards. Only Hill's is considerably deeper.

In case you were wondering, Williams' drop rate ranks 40th.

 

[Alexander]

Wait, hold on here Percy.

Boil it down for the simple folk.

So Williams is not the real problem here?

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Does the ranking get higher or lower as the drop rate increases?

 

[percyhoward]

Wait, hold on here Percy.

Boil it down for the simple folk.

There are probably more factors that determine "catchability" besides just the pass.

 

[percyhoward]

Does the ranking get higher or lower as the drop rate increases?

Lower. Of the 40 WR with the most catchable targets, T-Dub is 32nd and Dez is 39th in drop rate.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

Lower. Of the 40 WR with the most catchable targets, T-Dub is 32nd and Dez is 39th in drop rate.

That confirms what the eyeballs are seeing.

 

[iamliko22]

So u mean most of dez targets are garbage? Who knew...

 

[percyhoward]

Prescott's targets of 20+ yards only. The league average is 40% catchable on these throws.

to Bryant 6 of 18 (33%)
to others 13 of 22 (59%)

His catchable rate on throws of less than 20 yards (WR and TE only)

to Bryant 71 of 100 (71%)
to others 171 of 223 (77%)

 

[DuceizBak]

is Williams a better route runner than Dez? Seriously I don't know, and can someone rank out route runners from best to worst. I'd Imagine Beasley, Witten, Williams, Dez/Butler..

 

[Bleu Star]

Prescott's targets of 20+ yards only. The league average is 40% catchable on these throws.

to Bryant 6 of 18 (33%)
to others 13 of 22 (59%)

His catchable rate on throws of less than 20 yards (WR and TE only)

to Bryant 71 of 100 (71%)
to others 171 of 223 (77%)

So, like I said, remove Dez the crybaby cancer and all is well. Heck, without him last year they excelled. Imagine not having him on the field and instead having a stud #1 WR that just caught balls and didn't destroy the environment around him (ala my former Gamecock Alshon)..... Wow. Just close your eyes and imagine that.

Stellar research as always. Much appreciated.

 

[BobSacamano]

is Williams a better route runner than Dez? Seriously I don't know, and can someone rank out route runners from best to worst. I'd Imagine Beasley, Witten, Williams, Dez/Butler..

Good route runner, average pass catcher. Great blocker though.

 

[SHAMSzy]

I will always have a soft spot for T-Will after he came thru in the Detroit wildcard game, we do NOT win that playoff game without T-Will -- him & Dez are clearly both suffering from losing Romo

Look at the regression from the loss of Romo & addition of Dak, especially in TDs & avg

 

[Bleu Star]

I will always have a soft spot for T-Will after he came thru in the Detroit wildcard game, we do NOT win that playoff game without T-Will -- him & Dez are clearly both suffering from losing Romo

Look at the regression from the loss of Romo & addition of Dak, especially in TDs & avg

Reach. I didnt realize your arms were so long.

 

[visionary]

Look who ranks 5th in catchable targets among the league's 50 most-targeted wide receivers.

1 Amendola 61 of 73 83.6%
2 Humphreys TB 58 of 72 80.6%
3 Tate DET 88 of 110 80.0%
4 Cobb GB 64 of 80 80.0%
5 Williams DAL 56 of 72 77.8%
6 Hill KC 79 of 102 77.4%
7 Kupp LAR 69 of 90 76.7%
8 Thomas NO 100 of 131 76.3%
9 Allen SD 103 of 135 76.3%
10 Crowder WAS 69 of 91 75.8%

And most of these guys' average depth of target is shorter (or shallower) than TWill's 9.2 yards. Only Hill's is considerably deeper.

In case you were wondering, Williams' drop rate ranks 40th.

This can't possibly be true Percy
Williams is a no good "body catcher" and Dez just snatched the ball out of the air and had a huge catch radius

 

[Bleu Star]

This can't possibly be true Percy
Williams is a no good "body catcher" and Dez just snatched the ball out of the air and had a huge catch radius

Lol... I have to admit that I have clowned TWill in the past for being TRex...

But he has clearly proven me wrong. Dude is one of (if not the) most reliable receiving options on the team outside of Witten.

 

[sean10mm]

Prescott's targets of 20+ yards only. The league average is 40% catchable on these throws.

to Bryant 6 of 18 (33%)
to others 13 of 22 (59%)

His catchable rate on throws of less than 20 yards (WR and TE only)

to Bryant 71 of 100 (71%)
to others 171 of 223 (77%)

Dez is the guy you're supposed to make low % throws to, on the assumption that he can make plays even when he's covered. That was what Romo did through 2014, just get the ball in his area and let him make a play on it. That was always his core strength as a receiver. Peak Dez was a guy who was always open even when he wasn't.

Problem is, he can't do that anymore. He's not winning contested catches anymore, but Dak keeps attempting them anyway and it keeps failing. Dak doesn't have Romo's touch... but Romo didn't have Dez getting out-muscled, out-leaped, fumbling, and popping up balls that hit Dez square on the hands for picks, either.

Dak isn't Romo, but Dez isn't Dez anymore, either.

 

[percyhoward]

is Williams a better route runner than Dez?

Although depth of target explains some of it, the disparity in the catchable rate (Dez's is 65%) between the two suggests that Williams is open more often than Bryant. That may be because he's a better route runner, or because he (presumably) draws the inferior defender in coverage, but it's probably a little of both.

 

[mahoneybill]

That confirms what the eyeballs are seeing.

Frustrating to see others snatch the ball out of the air even at not Best angles and we have off the hands and body bounces

 

[Cmac]

Good route runner, average pass catcher. Great blocker though.

Huh??

 

[jwooten15]

nice research, OP!

I really think we'd be in a better position, as a team, if we just release Dez and sign a reliable WR to replace him. Maybe a guy with speed who can stretch the field since Cole and Witten obviously aren't going to.

With Dak's dink&dunk, overly-conservative style, Dez doesn't fit here. Add in how much Dez has regressed and we are basically wasting that $$ on him.

Williams has made a few bone headed plays, but overall, he's serviceable. And he seems to have a good rapport with Dak.

Cut Dez. Spend half of that cap savings on another WR, and stash the rest back for Martin or Tank.