Two Weeks Later - Grading the Draft

jazzcat22 said:
Don’t even go there pal, I am not butt hurt and I am not over reacting. I am only telling the truth. Hide behind your stats and analysis all you want if that make you feel better or makes you feel right or justifies a poor draft.
Don’t come in here telling me how I feel or anything like that. Just becasue I disagreed. You do not know me.
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Well, maybe I'm projecting my own butt hurt that I experienced right after the draft was over. I was ticked off because I wanted a quality defensive draft, and didn't get it.
 
I think the Cowboys viewed RDE as more of a need than you might think. The need is not necessary to add bodies to the position but to increase the pass rush production. All of the RDE’s on the roster have questions or limitations, so I think they are getting as many candidates in as they can to try to find an answer.

RDE is a premium position in this defense. If the Cowboys had a top 5 pick this year, Bradley Chubb would have been the pick.
 
jazzcat22 said:
Again, fans are overrating our draft. It was not that great. Maybe the players were good value where we picked them, but not all will help the team. When he had other needs. And you can’t say there were not good players available when we picked over who they picked.
Day 1 A
Day 2 B+
Day 3 C- but I really want to give it a D, until I see them on the field.

Just becasue we selected them, some fans fool themselves into thinking these players are better than what they are.
I hope I a, wrong, but they need to prove it to me.
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Man you've really switched gears this off-season.
 
Jumbo075 said:
Actually, we do know. Stephen Jones said the Cowboys had Covington ranked as a 5th round prospect. I just disagree with that assessment. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time.

But the reality is the OLB quality in this draft was really, really low. I can see how a team could rank a player higher in a very poor quality talent pool. But it wouldn't shock me to see one of the undrafted LB's beat out Covington.

For the record, I have Covington as the 397th best prospect in the draft.
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Missed Jones saying that. I won't necessary be surprised on Covington, but not much surprises me about the draft. Analysts, teams and fans have been overrating and underrating players since its beginnings.
 
I don't see what difference waiting 2 weeks makes. The next time we're going to have enough information to change our opinion on anything is after their first year.
 
beware_d-ware said:
I don't see what difference waiting 2 weeks makes. The next time we're going to have enough information to change our opinion on anything is after their first year.
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I thought I explained the two weeks. I needed to get over being pissed off that they didn't do what I wanted them to do in order to make a fair assessment of the players. If that's a negative on me, oh well...
 
Jumbo075 said:
One of the big traps you can fall into is grading each team's draft prematurely. For example, Sports Illustrated recently updated the grade for the Cowboys 2014 draft from being the 4th worst to the 2nd best in the NFL. This shows one of the fallacies of immediate draft grades.

Another more immediate trap that premature grades fall into is that you evaluate a draft based on what a team DIDN'T do, rather than what they DID do. Particularly for invested and involved fans, the immediate frustration over the lack of progress at some key positions can emotionally poison a fair and dispassionate evaluation of the quality of the players actually selected.

Like many fans, I really believed the top Cowboys needs were LB, OG, FS, & DT. I was also very frustrated with the whole idea that the Cowboys needed to change their WR corps, and the fact the Cowboys spent so much offseason energy on the position seemed tedious and counterproductive to me. I was NOT a supporter of getting rid of Dez Bryant, and bringing in 4 new WR's. Well, the Cowboys and I agreed about the top 2 positions of need, and did excellent jobs with selecting Vander Esch and Williams in the first two rounds. But they sharply disagreed with me on the importance of the WR position, and failed to address both the FS and DT positions in the draft.

So, my immediate emotional response to the draft was to be a little pissed off. As such, if you asked my immediate grade on April 29th, it wouldn't be good. My good feeling after the 2nd round turned sour. And instead of focusing on how the players the Cowboys drafted can help the team, I was focused on my own disappointment.

The same emotional reaction goes into the media grades given out. You see it in how pundits are down-grading the Giants draft - knocking them down for failing to draft a QB, rather than dispassionately judging them on the quality of the Saquon Barkley selection. You also see it in the less than stellar grades the Browns are getting - mainly because of who they passed on, rather than how the players they actually selected will help them build a competitive team.

That is a big introduction to say this: now that the initial negative emotional reaction has worn off, I think I have a better perspective to offer an initial grade on the Cowboys draft. I should also add that given that about 75-80% of regular starters in the NFL come from the first 3 rounds of the draft, I think you have to give more weight to the overall grade of the draft to how well the team drafts in the first 3 rounds.

  1. MLB Leighton Vander Esch - 93% - A - Clearly one of the top 4 LB's in the draft. While I would have been preferred to select Vander Esch with a lower pick than pick #19. It is clear that other teams were willing to trade up ahead of the Cowboys if they tried to trade back. In fact, it came out after the draft that the Titans were targeting Vander Esch with the 25th pick, and when the Cowboys selected him, they traded up to #22 to take Rashaan Evans. So the Cowboys wisely took a highly talented player with a tremendous upside that addressed their top position of need.
  2. OG Connor Williams - 99% A+ - If Williams had the same performance in his injury filled junior season as he had in his healthy sophomore year at Texas, He likely would have been the 2nd Offensive lineman drafted after Nelson, and likely the selection of the Raiders at pick #9. The Cowboys got him at #50 in the draft. This is a fantastic pick, no matter how you look at it. And not only can Williams step in as the new starting Left Guard for the Cowboys; he has the talent to play Left Tackle if necessitated by an injury to Tyron Smith.
  3. WR Michael Gallup - 87% B+ - In a draft where a lot of WR talent was bundled together near the end of the 1st round to the end of the 2nd round, Gallup fell to the Cowboys at #81. While he doesn't have elite measurable physical traits, Gallup's fall to the 3rd round is simply a matter of team preferences. He was highly productive in College, and projects to be a better #2 WR than Terrance Williams, and with his savvy and intelligence, could develop into a good #1 receiver.
  4. DE Dorance Armstrong - 73% - C - The Cowboys are obviously very high on Armstrong, and it's wise to take a moment before automatically panning this pick. With the impending return of Gregory, the recent addition of Charlton, and players like Tapper, Ealy, T.Crawford, and D.Jones - all top 101 picks already on the team, it makes some sense to doubt the wisdom of using a 4th round pick on yet another DE. Also, Armstrong's final year in college isn't a strong case for drafting him. But I'm willing to be wrong.
  5. TE Dalton Schultz - 82% B- - For a running team, getting a player who can block and catch the pass is important. Schultz fits the mold of what the Cowboys want to do. I don't have high expectations for his rookie season, because he comes in needing to gain 15-25 lbs to effectively play the role the Cowboys need him to play. He needs a year to bulk up, and a couple of offseasons, but he could become the best tight end on the roster by the beginning of 2019. That's not a bad career projection for a mid-round pick. Just don't judge him too quickly for not being able to immediately replace Jason Witten.
  6. QB Mike White - 95% A - Among the top 5 QB's selected in the draft, only Baker Mayfield checks all of Bill Parcells' 7 criteria to judge a QB in the draft.The rest of the 1st round QB's fail to measure up. Mike White checks all the boxes, and could be a steal in the 5th round. If Dak Prescott stumbles, White could even get an opportunity to show if he's better than Prescott. Some professional draft analysts believe that White was the 6th rated QB in the draft and should have been a 2nd round pick. At the very least, the Cowboys drafted a good young backup QB to Dak, if Dak bounces back and has a great 3rd season, which we should all be hoping for.
  7. OLB Chris Covington - 65% D - This was a really poor class for outside LB prospects, and so if you think there were better LB's still on the board when the Cowboys selected Covington, you'd be correct. But the better LB's available were all inside LB prospects, and by this time in the draft, the Cowboys already owned the rights to 4 LB's who can man the middle: Lee, Jaylon, Thomas and Vander Esch. They needed OLB help. So they reached for the best player they had left at the OLB position. Covington will likely be a career special teams player, but the Cowboys need someone to replace Kyle Wilbur so that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Just don't expect Covington to beat out Damien Wilson, who is a part-time starting caliber LB when he plays well.
  8. WR Cedrick Wilson - 82% B- - Wilson has the size and speed to become a very good #2 receiver in the NFL. But he struggles against press coverage, so right now he's simply a deep threat. He doesn't have the strength of Noah Brown, or the speed of Deonte Thompson, the two players he will likely be competing with for the final spot on the roster. Nevertheless, he shows the raw ability to learn to beat press coverage, and has some good traits and production as a receiver in college. He could make the team if the Cowboys keep 6 WR's, or they could stash him for development on the Practice Squad for a year, and promote him next year when the contracts of Beasley and Thompson expire.
  9. RB Bo Scarbrough - 95% A - Scarbrough is a great value in the 7th round. But the red flags on his health are real, so it will bear watching if he can reach his potential. When healthy, he'll add to a talented stable of RB's on a team that wants to run the ball more than any other in the NFL behind their top offensive line.
Scoring the draft
  • Grade x Weight = Pick Score
  • 1st round - 93% x 40 points = 37.2
  • 2nd round - 99% x 25 points = 24.8
  • 3rd round - 87% x 15 points = 13.0
Cowboys scored 75 of a possible 80 points on the first two days of the draft - 93.8% A
  • 4th round - 73% x 10 points = 7.3
  • 4th round - 82% x 10 points = 8.2
  • 5th round - 95% x 5 points = 4.8
  • 6th round - 65% x 3 points = 1.9
  • 6th round - 82% x 3 points = 2.6
  • 7th round - 95% x 2 points = 1.9
Cowboys scored 26.7 of a possible 33 points on Day 3 of the draft - 80.9% B-
  • Total Draft Grade 101.2 points of 113 possible points = 90.0% A-
Of course the Cowboys had an extra pick in the 4th and 6th rounds, and that is where they had their lowest grades for two players selected. If you drop out Armstrong and Covington, the Cowboys grade on a 100 point scale is 92.5% - a solid A grade. Throw in the potential added value of Armstrong and Covington, and the Cowboys have a score over 100. Very, very good overall use of the draft to improve the team.

Also, if you add in the use of the Cowboys second 5th round pick, #173 to trade for both FB Jamize Olawale, and RB Tavon Austin, plus the trade of Switzer for Ward in the immediate aftermath of the draft, then the Cowboys really used the picks and players they had to improve the overall talent of the team.

Bottom line. Even if the team did not improve in every area (FS), they did a great job using the draft resources they had to improve the overall talent level of the team. Just looking at the players they acquired, this was an excellent, excellent draft for the Cowboys. The Cowboys better hope that the 2017 draft class of Charlton, Awuzie and Lewis, along with Vander Esch improves the defense dramatically in 2018, because outside of Vander Esch in the 1st round, this was an offensively focused draft for the Cowboys.
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Love your post. Disagree on a couple of minor things things, but well done. Do not sleep on Armstrong. The kid is a player. Watched most of his games and not many can say that. It's Kansas football after all. I thought a 3-4 team would make him an OLB, but he has a chance to be successful in Dallas.
 
Good post Jumbo. What folk have to remember is this is Jumbo's assessment and opinion . Instead of putting it down, post your own grades for the draft based on your assessment and opinion. We all know...time will tell. Jumbo if you haven't already done so, please post your assessment of the 2014 draft verses the projection of the players at that that time. Who surprised? Who flopped ?
 
fansince68 said:
Good post Jumbo. What folk have to remember is this is Jumbo's assessment and opinion . Instead of putting it down, post your own grades for the draft based on your assessment and opinion. We all know...time will tell. Jumbo if you haven't already done so, please post your assessment of the 2014 draft verses the projection of the players at that that time. Who surprised? Who flopped ?
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  • I really liked Zack Martin. But I was also very interested in drafting a safety with the 1st round pick.
  • I really didn't like the Lawrence pick. I would have preferred a combination of Kony Ealy and Trai Turner. Those are the two players the Cowboys would have picked at #47 & #78 if they had not traded up for Lawrence.
  • Hitchens wasn't on my radar, and he proved to be a valuable player for the Cowboys. The irony is they'll likely get a 4th round compensatory pick for him, so it's a wash on the picks, and they got 4 good years out of him.
  • I didn't much care for their picks in rounds 5-7, but those are low probability picks anyway.
The Cowboys could have had
  • OG - Zack Martin (2014 - 2017 4x Pro Bowl, 2x first team All-Pro, 2x second team All-Pro)
  • DE - Kony Ealy
  • OG - Trai Turner (2015-2017 3x Pro Bowl)
Yes, the Cowboys got a great player in Martin, but Turner has been really good at guard also.

Obviously, Lawrence just had a break-out year. I'm still waiting to see if he can put together back to back good seasons. And the Cowboys now have Kony Ealy anyway, so there's that. All in all, the Cowboys still did very well in the the 2014 draft. But I'd still take Turner's 3 Pro Bowl seasons and 4 years of Ealy over Lawrence and his 1 Pro Bowl season at this point. I was pleasantly surprised by Lawrence this last season.
 
JBond said:
Love your post. Disagree on a couple of minor things things, but well done. Do not sleep on Armstrong. The kid is a player. Watched most of his games and not many can say that. It's Kansas football after all. I thought a 3-4 team would make him an OLB, but he has a chance to be successful in Dallas.
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I did another post on the Defensive Ends. I'm trying to find a reason to like the Armstrong pick, but I still wonder how he gets a legit chance, with 6-7 guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
 
One of the big traps you can fall into is grading each team's draft prematurely and grading a draft two weeks later is still premature and.......

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The grades are still based purely on perceived potential and not actual production, one day or two weeks hasn't changed that and still premature.
It sounds more like you went through the 5 stages of grief, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and you've finally gotten to acceptance.
 
Roadtrip635 said:
One of the big traps you can fall into is grading each team's draft prematurely and grading a draft two weeks later is still premature and.......

giphy.gif


The grades are still based purely on perceived potential and not actual production, one day or two weeks hasn't changed that and still premature.
It sounds more like you went through the 5 stages of grief, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and you've finally gotten to acceptance.
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Heh Heh.

I don't think the 5 stages of grief apply. I was never in denial, bargaining or depression. And I have not yet gotten to acceptance. I was marginally ticked off and disappointed with the Cowboys priorities. As such, I knew I should give it some time to make an initial evaluation of my thoughts on the draft.

If you really want to get down to it, even a year from now could be considered "too soon." If you're afraid of being wrong, then by all means, don't take a risk, and "wait and see." I waited until I was able to evaluate the players picked with an un-jaundiced eye, based on current information. I reserve the right to change my opinions when new information becomes available - like in 1 year, 2 years, or 3 years.

For now, I think the Cowboys did a nice job improving their team - even if I would have preferred them to concentrate on other areas than what they concentrated on.
 
JBond said:
OLB. He better kill it on Special Teams. We have a bunch of inside guys. VDE is starting if not injured.
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I thought about whether the Cowboys would try to convert him to OLB. I haven't heard that from them, but it is a possibility.
 
Jumbo075 said:
Heh Heh.

I don't think the 5 stages of grief apply. I was never in denial, bargaining or depression. And I have not yet gotten to acceptance. I was marginally ticked off and disappointed with the Cowboys priorities. As such, I knew I should give it some time to make an initial evaluation of my thoughts on the draft.

If you really want to get down to it, even a year from now could be considered "too soon." If you're afraid of being wrong, then by all means, don't take a risk, and "wait and see." I waited until I was able to evaluate the players picked with an un-jaundiced eye, based on current information. I reserve the right to change my opinions when new information becomes available - like in 1 year, 2 years, or 3 years.

For now, I think the Cowboys did a nice job improving their team - even if I would have preferred them to concentrate on other areas than what they concentrated on.
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Sounds like you're still in the bargaining phase then........lol
I was just ribbing ya a little bit, I think it's more about us trying to put a grade on anything this early because really, at this stage it's all just a matter of opinion. Overall I liked this draft, some picks I liked, some I would have liked to see in a different direction, I would have liked to see us make some other moves with picks or trades. If anything trying to assign a draft grade is more about trying to assess our own level of confidence about how we think they did versus how the picks actually will perform. Grades are usually given after the test not before.
 
i wouldn't go as far as to say the cowboys didn't agree with you on wr, and dez and the draft as much as i'd say they don't seek your advice nor do they care what you think. same goes for the sites resident self proclaimed capology expert. imo, everything said about players this time of year is mere hype. it is not until they put on the pads and start hitting someone that any true judgments can be made. last year ryan switzer tore it up when not in pads. now he's already gone. vamos a ver. que sera, sera.
 
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