I've got Diaz by lopsided decision, or by a late stoppage.
John Hackleman broke down this fight, and I was in complete agreement with what he said - this fight will play out alot like Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone.
I think Diaz will pressure Condit, stay inside, and live off of putting his jab in Carlos' face constantly. Carlos tends to stay upright, and his head on a level plain, even when he is getting punched. Dan Hardy had the right idea on how to take advantage by countering Condit with hooks, but Hardy tried to live off those hooks without using his jab more frequently.
In Diaz's fight with Cerrone, Nate lived off of using his jab and counter hooks to absolutely work over Cerrone. Condit is a VERY similar striker to Cerrone, although Condit may have slightly better movement. However, their striking defense, namely their head movement, leaves alot to be desired.
Diaz will his jab and counter hook to dismantle Condit. I believe Carlos will hang in, because he is simply one tough *you know what*, and may be able to ride out a decision loss.
Two other fights I'm excited to see ..
Jorgensen vs Barao - Should be a WAR. Jorgensen is always a game fighter, and one of the strongest P4P fighters in the world. His submission of Chad George a while back was laughable. Barao is the phenom, the next big thing, with a 20+ fight win streak. Incredible striker and submission artist. Love the fight.
The other fight is Stephen Thompson vs Dan Stittgen. I cannot wait to see how a fighter with the background of Thompson adapts to the UFC. He's 5-0 in MMA, but he is 56-0 as a kickboxer with 40 KOs. Usually fighters like Thompson struggle with the UFC due to the lack of a ground game, but Thompson has a slight advantage over most considering that his brother-in-law is BJJ legend Carlos Machado.
Thompson has been training at TriStar with Firas Zahabi for this fight. I'm expecting a HUGE debut from this guy.
Highlight vid ..
[youtube]QqJ0nIV34fM[/youtube]