Update on Point Differential and Prediction of SB Teams

[Aviano90]

Great info. I think it will be difficult to fall out of the top 5 at this point.

 

[Praxit]

It will be an interesting test in the upcoming game against the Cards. They have been struggling lately but are still salty. They have a +90 pd which is still top ten. The hated eagles are +80 btw, 30 pts more ahead of the pack in pd.

..yep, this game will be defensive challenge. Since they run a 3 player backfield. Will see what Quinn dials up.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Here’s 2 other stats that I bet would also favor us:

Playoff results of teams that were also top in the league in both Points AND Turnover differential. Willing to bet that if you’re top 3 in those all year, almost guarantees a final spot.

Going back to your Denver exception, and going further back in recent SB games, I’m willing to bet you’d find exceptions for teams like the NY NASCAR, Tampa last year, Denver, etc where if they didn’t finish with that formula, it was an end-of-year dominant defense that got them to the Super Bowl.

 

[Diehardblues]

I’m going to take both #1 seeds.

It’s a definite unfair advantage in current format.

While interesting data using point differential is just another stat to support an opinion after the fact.

 

[Diehardblues]

Another great post Hazey! Very interesting stats and indicators on who might play in the conference championship games. We are more than overdue and it’s time our number comes up for our ticket to the NFC championship game!

I can’t wait to see what our excuses will be if we come up short again . Not sure fans will accept there are simply greater QB’s , defenses and teams than ours. And for the most part why we have come up short this era.

Does it look like we’ve closed the gap? Sure but we shall see in playoffs. We’ve had a couple games against these Elite QB’s and teams ( Tampa & KC) and came up short . And what I’d expect again.

 

[Diehardblues]

Another great post Hazey! Very interesting stats and indicators on who might play in the conference championship games. We are more than overdue and it’s time our number comes up for our ticket to the NFC championship game!

I’ll have more confidence moving forward if we continue this mode consistently for a few years.

You can’t just make the playoffs every 3 or 4 years and expect us to surpass more proven playoff teams. There’s a reason why the Chiefs, Rams and Packers and even Tampa with Brady are more proven. They have been there.

We haven’t been with any consistency and why it’s difficult for me to pick us ahead of these more proven Playoff teams.

 

[ArtClink]

I’ll have more confidence moving forward if we continue this mode consistently for a few years.

You can’t just make the playoffs every 3 or 4 years and expect us to surpass more proven playoff teams. There’s a reason why the Chiefs, Rams and Packers and even Tampa with Brady are more proven. They have been there.

We haven’t been with any consistency and why it’s difficult for me to pick us ahead of these more proven Playoff teams.

Agreed.

 

[Established1971]

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:

1. Buffalo +163
2. DALLAS +150
3. Tampa Bay +130
4. Rams +130
5. NE +128
6. KC +115

So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.

ha! its funny I remember that post and was thinking about it yesterday when I noticed they were second in point diff

 

[doomsday9084]

Good thread. Its kind of a misnomer that good teams win close games. In the long term, it ends up being a coin flip as one missed call or player mistake decides the game. Good teams win in blowouts.

Side note: Dallas' point differential is actually understated. Earlier this year they smoked several teams and let the score get closer playing prevent defense in the second half. The differential could be +20 more had the team kept their foots on opponents' throats.

 

[ChuckA1]

Excellent post BobHaze. Great info. Go Cowboys

 

[Jake]

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:

1. Buffalo +163
2. DALLAS +150
3. Tampa Bay +130
4. Rams +130
5. NE +128
6. KC +115

So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.

Nice work.

The potential is there, but we haven't seen the Cowboys succeed under the bright lights of the playoffs for so long it is hard to trust them.

We'll see soon enough.

 

[shabazz]

I love those stats but I’m also aware that they can become meaningless if the wrong officiating crew is assigned to our playoff games…..won’t be surprised if our playoff games are officiated by the top 5 crews ranked with the most flags in games……cant be any close games to let the outcome be decided by “outside influences”

 

[john van brocklin]

Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:

1. Buffalo +163
2. DALLAS +150
3. Tampa Bay +130
4. Rams +130
5. NE +128
6. KC +115

So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON

1. Ravens +165
2. Saints +145
3. Pack +140
4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
5. Bills +126
6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)

2019 SEASON

1. Ravens +249
2. Pats +195
3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
5. Saints +117

2018 SEASON

1. Saints +151
2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
3. Chiefs +144
4. Bears +138
5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)

2017 SEASON

1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
3. Jaguars +149
4. Rams +148
5. Vikings +130

2016 SEASON

1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
3. Cowboys +115
4. Chiefs +78
5. Steelers +72

Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.

Thanks Bob, enjoy these tidbits of information!

 

[Jstopper]

I’ll have more confidence moving forward if we continue this mode consistently for a few years.

You can’t just make the playoffs every 3 or 4 years and expect us to surpass more proven playoff teams. There’s a reason why the Chiefs, Rams and Packers and even Tampa with Brady are more proven. They have been there.

We haven’t been with any consistency and why it’s difficult for me to pick us ahead of these more proven Playoff teams.

You just contradicted the hell out of yourself. "cant make playoffs every 3 or 4 years and expect us to surpass more proven playoff teams", Then proceeds to name the Bucs who hadn't been the in the playoffs since 2002 until last season. Even the rams just started making playoffs recently 3 out of last 4 years, and were on a humungous drought themselves before this. Some of you guys are so eager to give every other team credit besides your own that its baffling

 

[zeroburrito]

why is it top 6 for one, but the others are all top 5?


all these stats mean is we are 1 of 6 teams that can make the sb. only 14 make the playoffs...we have a slightly higher than average chance to make it. sweet.

 

[VaqueroTD]

I love those stats but I’m also aware that they can become meaningless if the wrong officiating crew is assigned to our playoff games…..won’t be surprised if our playoff games are officiated by the top 5 crews ranked with the most flags in games……cant be any close games to let the outcome be decided by “outside influences”

No joke. Bad zebra crews are like a fricking virus for our team. Start with the guy they're singling out, and spread to the whole team until our momentum is shot.

 

[Diehardblues]

You just contradicted the hell out of yourself. "cant make playoffs every 3 or 4 years and expect us to surpass more proven playoff teams", Then proceeds to name the Bucs who hadn't been the in the playoffs since 2002 until last season. Even the rams just started making playoffs recently 3 out of last 4 years, and were on a humungous drought themselves before this. Some of you guys are so eager to give every other team credit besides your own that its baffling

First of all I mentioned Brady with Tampa because of this very reason as he’s a veteran in the playoffs and Tampa winning it all is proven and the Rams have been in playoffs 4 of last 5 years including one SB appearance.

The Cowboys simply don’t fit any criteria of a consistent or proven playoff team in recent years.

 

[Bobhaze]

why is it top 6 for one, but the others are all top 5?


all these stats mean is we are 1 of 6 teams that can make the sb. only 14 make the playoffs...we have a slightly higher than average chance to make it. sweet.

From the OP:
“Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.”