Update on Point Differential and Prediction of SB Teams

Bobhaze

Bobhaze

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Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:
  1. Buffalo +163
  2. DALLAS +150
  3. Tampa Bay +130
  4. Rams +130
  5. NE +128
  6. KC +115
So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.
 
CowboyFrog said:
Great info! I also think if you looked up teams scoring from every unit we would be up there and it probably shows similar Data, I feel like I have not seen points comming from the ST and D like this since the 90's
Click to expand...
Great point. I don’t have the particulars but I heard the other night that the Cowboys have had more different players scoring a TD than any year in franchise history.
 
Very cool. However, even though I enjoy stats like this. I've already been informed by another poster here that the Packers and there +59 is the only team capable of winning a SB this year. :(
 
Dallasfann said:
Very cool. However, even though I enjoy stats like this. I've already been informed by another poster here that the Packers and there +59 is the only team capable of winning a SB this year. :(
Click to expand...
Ha! I certainly respect the pack- they are a tough team. But we shouldn’t fear them. I’m actually hoping for a face off with them in the playoffs!
 
Bobhaze said:
Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:
  1. Buffalo +163
  2. DALLAS +150
  3. Tampa Bay +130
  4. Rams +130
  5. NE +128
  6. KC +115
So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.
Click to expand...

I love this. I've seen a previous post or two from you about this and don't know if I took the time to tell you that I appreciate the effort. It really is a very telling statistic.
 
Bobhaze said:
Ha! I certainly respect the pack- they are a tough team. But we shouldn’t fear them. I’m actually hoping for a face off with them in the playoffs!
Click to expand...

Agreed - I hope we get a rematch with Brady as well. I really think our front 7 could win that game for us. Anything can happen once you get into the tournament, but going to Green Bay and beating Rodgers to get to the SB would almost be the icing on the cake that this fan base deserves.
 
Dallasfann said:
Agreed - I hope we get a rematch with Brady as well. I really think our front 7 could win that game for us. Anything can happen once you get into the tournament, but going to Green Bay and beating Rodgers to get to the SB would almost be the icing on the cake that this fan base deserves.
Click to expand...


We going to have to beat at least one of them I would think
 
Bobhaze said:
Great point. I don’t have the particulars but I heard the other night that the Cowboys have had more different players scoring a TD than any year in franchise history.
Click to expand...
Yep. I think the previous high was 16 players. 19 (so far) this year.
 
I’m good with going to GB or Tampa coming here for the title game. Would love to crush either QB. And as Dak said the after the first game, “we will see you in January Tom”.
 
sweet, now I want to see how top defensive teams fair in recent Super Bowls. Top turn over teams, top points allowed teams etc, etc...
 
CowboyFrog said:
Great info! I also think if you looked up teams scoring from every unit we would be up there and it probably shows similar Data, I feel like I have not seen points comming from the ST and D like this since the 90's
Click to expand...
CowboyFrog said:
I heard the same, like 19 players I think thats crazy...
Click to expand...
There's some kind of +60 rule about plays like sacks, INTs & fumbles I've seen on here that I wish I could remember that kind of follows Bob's treatise.

It's amazing how everybody is getting in on the action & not just the marquis "skilled position" players
 
Bobhaze said:
Last October, I shared some info about how to reliably predict who will play in a SB.

Here it’s: Since 2000, approximately 85% of teams playing in the conference championship and Super Bowls were in the top 10 in point differential. Last year, Tampa Bay was #1 in point differential and KC was 6th.

Lately, this is even more predictive of SB teams. The last 5 seasons, the teams in the top 1-6 of point differential are the ones consistently making the super bowl. In fact, 2015 was the last year a team not in the top six of PD won the SB, and it was that great Denver defense that won it that year.

HERE IS THE CURRENT TOP 6 IN POINT DIFFERENTIAL AFTER 15 GAMES:
  1. Buffalo +163
  2. DALLAS +150
  3. Tampa Bay +130
  4. Rams +130
  5. NE +128
  6. KC +115
So….as a reminder- If we can stay in that top 5-6, history puts us in a great spot. Here’s the evidence of the importance of point differential from the las 5 seasons:

2020 SEASON
  1. Ravens +165
  2. Saints +145
  3. Pack +140
  4. Bucs +137 (SB CHAMPS)
  5. Bills +126
  6. Chiefs +111 (AFC champs)
2019 SEASON
  1. Ravens +249
  2. Pats +195
  3. Niners +169 (NFC Champs)
  4. Chiefs +143 (SB CHAMP)
  5. Saints +117
2018 SEASON
  1. Saints +151
  2. Rams +143 (NFC Champs)
  3. Chiefs +144
  4. Bears +138
  5. Pats +111 (SB CHAMPS)
2017 SEASON
  1. Eagles +162 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Pats +162 (AFC champs)
  3. Jaguars +149
  4. Rams +148
  5. Vikings +130
2016 SEASON
  1. Pats +191 (SB CHAMPS)
  2. Falcons +134 (NFC Champs)
  3. Cowboys +115
  4. Chiefs +78
  5. Steelers +72
Obviously there are no guarantees and we have a lot of football left to play. But the Dallas Cowboys are looking a lot like a SB team based on recent history.
Click to expand...

Since your original post I have been following the point differential to see if Dallas maintained a top 5 differential. FWIW I have been a big believer in point differential for a long time but never tracked it the way you have.
 
Techsass said:
There's some kind of +60 rule about plays like sacks, INTs & fumbles I've seen on here that I wish I could remember that kind of follows Bob's treatise.

It's amazing how everybody is getting in on the action & not just the marquis "skilled position" players
Click to expand...
Yes, that +60 rule you mentioned refers to a combo of sacks and TO’s from the defense. Teams with +60 are always the ones in contention for SBs.

RIGHT NOW…THE COWBOYS ARE +70! We have 33 TOs (#1 in NFL) and 37 sacks (#11).
 
Another great post Hazey! Very interesting stats and indicators on who might play in the conference championship games. We are more than overdue and it’s time our number comes up for our ticket to the NFC championship game!
 
It will be an interesting test in the upcoming game against the Cards. They have been struggling lately but are still salty. They have a +90 pd which is still top ten. The hated eagles are +80 btw, 30 pts more ahead of the pack in pd.
 
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