Of course, taking the BPA is always a good thing, and we've done well enough acquiring players since Parcells has been here that we can do that. Like someone already said though... you don't want to completely ignore needs when drafting BPA, either.
I keep looking at it and I keep coming back to LB in round 1 for Dallas.
Parcells has either said he isn't crazy about taking these positions in round 1 or his history says he isn't: WR, OG, C, and FB. That leaves QB, RB, OT, TE, NT, DE, OLB, ILB, CB, and S.
Of those positions, I just don't see us going QB, RB, TE, DE, CB, or S.
*I think Parcells likes the developmental QB's that we have (Romo, Henson).
*I also think Bill is happy with the combined skills of Julius Jones, Marion Barber, and Tyson Thompson at RB.
*While Parcells loves the TE position, with a young pro bowler there in Witten and a young FA acquisition there in Hannam, I can't see us going TE in round 1 unless V. Davis is sitting there at 18 somehow.
*We're set at DE with Spears, Canty, Ellis, Ratliff and Coleman.
*We're also set at CB with a top 5 pick in Newman and two very good FA pickups in Henry and Glenn. Those three might be the best top 3 CB's on any team. Plus, Parcells really likes Reeves and I think he will be a good one.
*I can't see us going S in round 1 because we have so much money already tied up in the secondary (Bill and Jerry both said that before last year's draft) and that is a position that teams usually try to fill outside of round 1. Plus, Jerry recently said that he didn't see us using either of our top two picks at S.
Those positions being out of consideration, leaves OT, NT, ILB, and OLB.
With us having signed Fabini, OT is no longer a pressing need. With Adams, Fabini, Petitti and Columbo, I think Dallas doesn't plan on using the 18th pick on an OT. If someone they have rated very highly is sitting there, I think they'd pull the trigger, but otherwise I think they go into the season with what we have. Maybe a later round developmental guy added to that list, but pretty much status quo.
At NT, with Glover gone, we definatley could use some depth... but why would a team that is by all accounts pushing for all the marbles this year, use their first round pick on a player that will be a backup? Personally, I'm not completely against that idea and if Ngata falls and Dallas loves the guy, I say take him at 18 and give him 50% of the snaps. He would help Ferguson out a lot and make the DL rotation a very, very good one. Still, it is doubtful that we'd draft depth in the first round.
That leaves OLB and ILB.
*Parcells has shown time and again throughout his career that he'll use a first round pick on a LB in a heartbeat.
*Parcells and Jerry both have talked about the importance of the LB corps in a 34 defense.
*We have a gaping hole at SOLB, with only an aging veteran coming off injury sitting there... and he never did fit the defense to begin with.
*I think both Jerry and Bill see the empty SOLB position being filled with quality as an important factor in the development of last year's first round pick, Demarcus Ware. In other words, they know that if we have a dangerous pass rusher at SOLB, Ware will be much, much more effective player than if we just have a guy at that spot. Take away the constant chipping from TE's and RB's, and all the double and triple teams that Ware saw, and he would've easily had double digit sacks and been a constant harassment for the offense. Put a player like Lawson or Wimbley opposite Ware and watch what happens. If the offense continues to pay all of the attention to Demarcus, Lawson or Wimbley would make them pay in a hurry. It would be a classic catch 22 for the offense.
*This is a very good year for OLB/tweener's. Lawson, Wimbley, Carpenter... they all represent good value for a 3-4 team in the first round. Athletically speaking, they're top ten talents. Because they play LB (Carpenter) or because they're tweener's and just too small to play full-time DE (Lawson, Wimbley), they'll slide down farther than their talents and athletic ability warrants. So by us using our first rounder on them, we get talent that is very nearly top ten talent... but we get it much farther down in the first round.
*Along those lines, the BPA for us, very likely will be at the OLB position because of their propensity to slide in the first round.
So, thinking it through logically, it's hard for me to see us using the 18th pick on anything other than OLB. I just keep coming back to that position every time I think about which way we'll go at 18.