We won't be players in Free Agency

[jterrell]

Galian no offense but the reason tools like the one at OTC become useless are threads like this.

Dallas is isn't cutting 20 guys.
Half those 20 guys are legit NFL players and values.

 

[jterrell]

One of the starting right-side OL from this year will get cut. There's no way this team can afford to keep both Bernadeau and Free, especially if the team thinks it can get serviceable production elsewhere (Case in point -- if Waters comes back, the team will not keep around a backup G with a $4 million cap hit. That should be too obvious to even mention).

Also, I don't expect June 1st designations to play a big role in getting under the cap this year. Like usual, it will just be a method of putting away money to sign the rookie class and have a little bit left over for emergency or late signings. It does nothing for free agency, which this team desperately needs to participate in this year. There aren't enough draft picks in the world to find solid starters to fill these holes, unless you think another Nick Hayden is the final piece.

thankfully you live up to your moniker and are trying to share some sanity.

 

[Sandyf]

Was very good and well written article. Most of us would agree with a lot of it.

I can see us designating Austin as a June 1st cut but Jerry in no way will cut Ware, just not in his nature and frankly probably a mistake. He will restructure Ware though, IMO pretty sure on that one.

Currently if you go to the salary cap web sites and there are several, our cap number for 2014 currently is $149.6 mil and the projected cap that the owners were informed of at the winter meeting is supposed to be $126.3 mil although based on history it most likely will rise from that number slightly but wouldn't expect it to be more than $128.1 mil unless some agreement is worked out with the NFLPA who believes the cap should be around $137 mil this year.

Every year it seems we go through this time of we are in cap hell and won't be able to do anything and yet after Steven Jones gets done with restructures, cuts, carryover, money that is alloted for incentives that were not achieved, and June 1st designations, we seem to get under the cap significantly to do the things like sign a few free agents, resign/extend some contracts i.e. Smith and Bryant so I just don't get overly concerned about it until I see it not happen and frankly I don't see that ever happening.

Out of that $149.3 mil cap number for 2014, over $11.7 mil is dead money mainly from Livings and Ratliff.

I agree that we need to fix several things, mainly the D line and still would like to see the right side of the O line improved.

I could see Jason and Jerry making several moves in the off season that would not surprise me like trading for Jonathan Martin RT Miami for say Free, Costa and Bernadeau. Some will argue that Martin is either not worth it or that he is worth more but the fact is he will never play for the Dolpins again so anything for him would be a plus. I think Jerry goes to Calvin Hill and says would Martin be fine in Dallas and if he does then he makes the deal.

In free agency, I really believe we resign Waters at OG IF we don't sign Jon Asamoah OG Kansas City. I think that will be the big target. I do see us probably signing a DT possibly like Desmond Bryant but IMO we won't sign any D line guy north of 28 years old.

I know many want to revamp the secondary but IMO the secondary needs a D line to show some type of pressure in order to be effective. Did some timing issues the last 3 games and QBs averaged 4.8 seconds in the pocket to throw the ball as opposed to the Carolina and Seattle Ds only allowing the QB 2.9 seconds to throw the ball. That kills a secondary.

The draft HAS to be a win for us and mainly on the D although I will say this, if Mike Evans WR Texas A&M is there when we draft in the first round, in no way would it surprise me to see us select him. Mistake, maybe but two big WR like Bryant and Evans with Williams on the outside and our TEs makes a offense hard to stop and improves the running game.

But my draft would go something like this: based on CBSports draft rankings
1. RaShede Hageman DT Minnesota - great motor, 3 down guy, leader, tough, great size, gets a good push
2. Kony Ealy DE Missouri - great height and motor, long arms, good pursuit guy
3. Jefferson Jeffcoat DE Texas - prototypical size, good motor, will surprise, good speed, will be better than his Dad
3a. Dominque Easley DT Florida - if not for injury a 1st rd pick, not do back until Oct., leader, Sapp type guy
4. Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi St. - needs watch his weight but he dominates in the run game
4a. Daniel McCullers DT Tennessee - huge guy, needs some time but good rotation guy, will benefit of ST
5. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB/FS Nebraska - better FS than CB but Neb had CB problems, late bloomer, good size for today's WR
6. De'Anthony Thomas RB Oregon - size is the problem but ultra fast, great screen guy
7. Casey Pachall QB TCU - why him just that we need to start drafting a QB every year until we find one to eventually replace Romo

JMO

 

[jterrell]

Was very good and well written article. Most of us would agree with a lot of it.

I can see us designating Austin as a June 1st cut but Jerry in no way will cut Ware, just not in his nature and frankly probably a mistake. He will restructure Ware though, IMO pretty sure on that one.

Currently if you go to the salary cap web sites and there are several, our cap number for 2014 currently is $149.6 mil and the projected cap that the owners were informed of at the winter meeting is supposed to be $126.3 mil although based on history it most likely will rise from that number slightly but wouldn't expect it to be more than $128.1 mil unless some agreement is worked out with the NFLPA who believes the cap should be around $137 mil this year.

Every year it seems we go through this time of we are in cap hell and won't be able to do anything and yet after Steven Jones gets done with restructures, cuts, carryover, money that is alloted for incentives that were not achieved, and June 1st designations, we seem to get under the cap significantly to do the things like sign a few free agents, resign/extend some contracts i.e. Smith and Bryant so I just don't get overly concerned about it until I see it not happen and frankly I don't see that ever happening.

Out of that $149.3 mil cap number for 2014, over $11.7 mil is dead money mainly from Livings and Ratliff.

I agree that we need to fix several things, mainly the D line and still would like to see the right side of the O line improved.

I could see Jason and Jerry making several moves in the off season that would not surprise me like trading for Jonathan Martin RT Miami for say Free, Costa and Bernadeau. Some will argue that Martin is either not worth it or that he is worth more but the fact is he will never play for the Dolpins again so anything for him would be a plus. I think Jerry goes to Calvin Hill and says would Martin be fine in Dallas and if he does then he makes the deal.

In free agency, I really believe we resign Waters at OG IF we don't sign Jon Asamoah OG Kansas City. I think that will be the big target. I do see us probably signing a DT possibly like Desmond Bryant but IMO we won't sign any D line guy north of 28 years old.

I know many want to revamp the secondary but IMO the secondary needs a D line to show some type of pressure in order to be effective. Did some timing issues the last 3 games and QBs averaged 4.8 seconds in the pocket to throw the ball as opposed to the Carolina and Seattle Ds only allowing the QB 2.9 seconds to throw the ball. That kills a secondary.

The draft HAS to be a win for us and mainly on the D although I will say this, if Mike Evans WR Texas A&M is there when we draft in the first round, in no way would it surprise me to see us select him. Mistake, maybe but two big WR like Bryant and Evans with Williams on the outside and our TEs makes a offense hard to stop and improves the running game.

But my draft would go something like this: based on CBSports draft rankings
1. RaShede Hageman DT Minnesota - great motor, 3 down guy, leader, tough, great size, gets a good push
2. Kony Ealy DE Missouri - great height and motor, long arms, good pursuit guy
3. Jefferson Jeffcoat DE Texas - prototypical size, good motor, will surprise, good speed, will be better than his Dad
3a. Dominque Easley DT Florida - if not for injury a 1st rd pick, not do back until Oct., leader, Sapp type guy
4. Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi St. - needs watch his weight but he dominates in the run game
4a. Daniel McCullers DT Tennessee - huge guy, needs some time but good rotation guy, will benefit of ST
5. Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB/FS Nebraska - better FS than CB but Neb had CB problems, late bloomer, good size for today's WR
6. De'Anthony Thomas RB Oregon - size is the problem but ultra fast, great screen guy
7. Casey Pachall QB TCU - why him just that we need to start drafting a QB every year until we find one to eventually replace Romo

JMO

I like that you discuss the past and what has happened.
That really is our best guide here.
We will obviously get under the cap.
And we'll likely make one or two FA signings of non-minimum contributing caliber guys.
But no more.

As to the draft. Not gonna come close to happening.
We may well draft a DL in round 1 but we aren't spending our top 4 picks at that position.
If you'd consider Mike Evans early then you really should consider similarly built guys later in the draft instead of drafting 5 DL knowing you are likely cutting 1 or 2 of them year 1.

 

[xwalker]

Free Agency
At least not in March. Which is really unfortunate as we desperately need help via free agency on the defensive line. The one positive note is that if Brian Waters returns next year, we'll probably be signing him late into the offseason.

Off Season Moves
The first major moves involve restructuring Romo, Witten, and Lee. Followed by potential cuts to Bernadeau, Parnell, Costa, Durant, Irvin, Hayden, Brown, Moore, Johnson, Nevis, Clutts, Wilson, Webb, Lemon, Olson, and Heath.

Salary Cap Management
That would put us at about 8.1 million under the cap (assuming the cap is what is being currently projected), except that we're going to have to do something about Jones and Bailey. Giving Bailey a 2nd round tender would bring us down to 5.5 million. I think more likely they'll want to sign him longer term and get that 2014 cap hit lower.

Regardless that 5.5 million doesn't give us much freedom in free agency. I'd still like to see us sign one if not two defensive linemen with that, and backload their salaries.

If we are unable to sign any free agent linemen that will tell me that this defense probably won't be much better next year. Unless we can really hit it big in the draft, and something falls into our laps in free agency after June 1st cuts.

June 1st
We're allowed to designate two june 1st cuts. I'm guessing those will be Ware and Austin, at least to suck up some of the free agency dollars out there. That will give us another 18.3 million dollars in June, and will really let us work around things like extending Smith and Bryant, and perhaps even work some trades or at the very least go after that 2nd free agency market pretty aggressively. It'll certainly allow us to resign Waters if he doesn't retire.

Being able to resign Waters will be a huge factor in this team's success next year, I hope he can commit to return before the draft. Either way we still need to draft a guard. Worst case, they replace Waters, best case they compete with/replace Leary.

I don't see how we can manage to replace Free this year, but next year will be his last year in Dallas unless he becomes a beast in 2014.

Problems/Solutions
Biggest issue on offense will be the running back position. I don't envision we can invest in Murray, but fixing this defense takes priority of replacing him as a starter. Running back is going to be a pretty big issue for us next year, it'll be interesting to see how we address the problem. Hail mary idea, but with the money we save by cutting Ware/Austin, we'd probably be able to put money into a trade for AP. And before naysayers suggest that is a Madden move, his contract would be fairly affordable for his production. 4 years 55 million. Equivalent of signing a player like AP to a 4 year deal with a 44 million dollar contract with a 10.845 million dollar signing bonus. He would cost 3.566 million in year one. In this case I would try to package Murray and 2015 1st or 2nd round draft pick. Worst case scenario we would get 2 years out of him on the somewhat cheap, by restructuring his 2nd year, and releasing him his 3rd year (where the dead money from other players would be less of a factor). To me the real question would come down to compensation to Minnesota.

On defense we're going to need 4 new starters on the defensive line (3 if you count selvie or not, 2 if you count Ben Bass). This means at minimum you'd want 1 free agent and 1 high round draft pick, but likely two high round draft picks on the defensive line. A lot of people will see what a new world opens up without DeMarcus Ware and Miles Austin.

Development
I think if we can keep the improvements coming to the offensive line, have Williams/Beasley continue to develop, have Escobar continue to develop, and then we address the running back position and the defensive line, you'll see this team turn the corner pretty quickly. All of which I think is not only possible but easy to do.

And you still have players that you would bring back and see if they can finally contribute like Wilcox and Johnson.

Conclusion
The two single players holding this franchise back the most are Miles Austin and DeMarcus Ware. We currently have 147 million of which Austin and Ware represent 24.2 million or 16%. They are 1/6th of our entire salary, and we're getting little to no production from them. You think back to this year and add Spencer and Ratliff to them... and it's actually surprising that we made it to 7-6. It's really a credit to how well Romo has been playing.

I don't think the future is necessarily dim for us, but it really depends on whether or not the front office makes some in my opinion quite obvious moves, the two biggest being parting ways with Austin and Ware. If Ware is given another year here, expect another poor defense.

I'm at the point where I think this season is basically over, and if Garrett and Kiffin are definitely going to be here next year, it's probably best to start playing younger players who are going to be vital next year.

Amendment:

If they really plan on keeping Carr (which I think is a mistake), you can restructure him and save an additional 5 million against the cap next year. Which would certainly help us make some moves earlier in free agency. And if we can use that money to get a better defensive line, that would probably make Carr more valuable.

Sorry, but I find this to be a terrible plan.

There is no point cutting these players before training camp:
Bernadeau, Parnell, Costa, Durant, Irvin, Hayden, Brown, Moore, Johnson, Nevis, Clutts, Wilson, Webb, Lemon, and Heath.

FYI - Olson is not on the roster. That appears to be a mistake on Spotrac and Over-the-Cap.com.

Cutting Parnell and Bernadeau is a terrible idea. They already have zero depth at Guard and Bernadeau can play both Center and Guard. Parnell is a solid backup OT that probably would have challenged Free in training camp if not for an injury.

Your cap is doomed if you give up draft picks and pay big money for the same player. Adrian Peterson's salaries:
2014 11,750,000
2015 12,750,000
2016 14,750,000
2017 15,750,000

AP will be 29 before next season and he has a lot of mileage. You want to give up a 1st round pick and Murray and pay a RB huge money?

 

[black label]

You must have missed the offseasons we've sat out because of our cap situation.

I haven't missed a thing since 1974

 

[Risen Star]

I haven't missed a thing since 1974

Then you realize the Cowboys have been spectators in numerous free agency periods despite having a roster littered with holes.

Salary cap room kind of sort of matters.

 

[Galian Beast]

Sorry, but I find this to be a terrible plan.

There is no point cutting these players before training camp:
Bernadeau, Parnell, Costa, Durant, Irvin, Hayden, Brown, Moore, Johnson, Nevis, Clutts, Wilson, Webb, Lemon, and Heath.

FYI - Olson is not on the roster. That appears to be a mistake on Spotrac and Over-the-Cap.com.

Cutting Parnell and Bernadeau is a terrible idea. They already have zero depth at Guard and Bernadeau can play both Center and Guard. Parnell is a solid backup OT that probably would have challenged Free in training camp if not for an injury.

Your cap is doomed if you give up draft picks and pay big money for the same player. Adrian Peterson's salaries:
2014 11,750,000
2015 12,750,000
2016 14,750,000
2017 15,750,000

AP will be 29 before next season and he has a lot of mileage. You want to give up a 1st round pick and Murray and pay a RB huge money?

Do you see how much Bernadeau is slotted to be paid next year? There is no chance that he is still here. Parnell and Costa are expensive depth, and while I'm not guaranteeing they will still be here, I wouldn't be surprised if they were cut. The majority of other players were merely brought in because of injuries, and the idea that their pre camp roster spots are somehow likely makes no sense. Players with no salary ramifications and higher than camp body salaries certainly face being released in order to get under the cap.

I've suggested giving up 1 draft pick to get AP, something we'd have to do regardless to get a new running back after Murray, who I don't see us resigning in the future. Also see the breakdown I gave off AP's contract. And value for the first couple years. He has a 4 year deal, I'm not suggesting signing him to a 7 year deal.

Galian no offense but the reason tools like the one at OTC become useless are threads like this.

Dallas is isn't cutting 20 guys.
Half those 20 guys are legit NFL players and values.

No they aren't.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

We don't have to worry about it in March, I didn't think, because didn't they change the format this year? I thought they were doing FA after the draft this year so it won't happen until May. Either way Dallas won't have money but I don't think it's in March anymore anyway.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I guess the good thing is, we can probably get by without making any moves on the offensive side. Sure, we could use some OGs, but Frederick and Tyron will be better, Free will probably still be okay, Leary might be more serviceable with a year of experience, and we could still probably get Waters.

So that means we can dedicate the entire draft and free agency to defense. We need A LOT of work there. I don't even know where to begin. I think we go best defensive player available with our first pick. I'd be upset if we spent any of our first 4 picks on offense.

 

[Risen Star]

We don't have to worry about it in March, I didn't think, because didn't they change the format this year? I thought they were doing FA after the draft this year so it won't happen until May. Either way Dallas won't have money but I don't think it's in March anymore anyway.

They moved the draft to May. It's going to move around for the next few years I believe but should remain in May long term.

I'm not sure if FA has also been pushed back or not but it's not after the draft. I wish it was. It doesn't make sense in the order they have it now.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

They moved the draft to May. It's going to move around for the next few years I believe but should remain in May long term.

I'm not sure if FA has also been pushed back or not but it's not after the draft. I wish it was. It doesn't make sense in the order they have it now.

Ahhh ok. That must be what I saw then. For some reason I thought I read where they moved FA to after the draft.

 

[xwalker]

One of the starting right-side OL from this year will get cut. There's no way this team can afford to keep both Bernadeau and Free, especially if the team thinks it can get serviceable production elsewhere (Case in point -- if Waters comes back, the team will not keep around a backup G with a $4 million cap hit. That should be too obvious to even mention).

Also, I don't expect June 1st designations to play a big role in getting under the cap this year. Like usual, it will just be a method of putting away money to sign the rookie class and have a little bit left over for emergency or late signings. It does nothing for free agency, which this team desperately needs to participate in this year. There aren't enough draft picks in the world to find solid starters to fill these holes, unless you think another Nick Hayden is the final piece.

Bernadeau has played well recently. His salary is 2.75M for 2014. They have Zero depth at Guard. Bernadeau can play Center which increases his value. They can't make decisions based on Waters coming back after training camp. He is a good option if they have injures in training camp, but counting on Waters is a bad plan.

Free's salary is 3.5M for 2014. If he gets cut, I don't think it would happen until after training camp. Parnell would need to win the job (which I think he can). They would also have to be convinced that they have a backup if Parnell is the starter. Weems appears to have the physical ability, but was raw in his technique/awareness in the 2013 training camp.

OL is a bad area to try to go cheap because it can get the QB killed.

I think Bernadeau will stay even if they draft a Guard in the 1st round. Costa might be gone if Bernadeau becomes the backup Guard/Center.

Leary is playing well, but has has knee problems. His right knee is a defect that could blow at any time; although, Jonathan Vilma had the same condition and never had a problem with it. Leary also had a problem with the left knee in training camp. They really need depth at this position.

 

[coult44]

Cap hell? I don't buy it.
Every year its the same thing for one team or another. There is always something that can be done to make room.

After seeing the skins get out of there's years ago its all bull crap to me
OOOOOOOOOOOOH Cap hell is coming!! Run for the hills I'm scared

18 years of cap greatness?

 

[Oh_Canada]

No way do they trade for AP.

Some of those cuts are unrealistic.

If all they get out of FA is Henry Melton and Linval Joseph they will have accomplished quite a bit.

I am hoping DWare and Austin are both cut, but in the end it will be a restrcuture (pay cut) to Ware and only Austin will see the door.

 

[lane]

free agency ruined the nfl

another thing that has ruined the nfl is that pos goodell.

commercials have also indeed ruined my enjoyment of the game..

dvr pause feature is a friend of mine.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Ware and Austin counting 1/6 of our cap is laughable.....................Austin watches more games from the hot tub than he does from the sideline and Ware is done, was b-slapped all night by freaking Bushrod........both need to go.

 

[TrailBlazer]

Ware may be restructured but will not be gone. He can still be a situational pass rusher and there is no one to replace him right now or next year. HOF players don't grow on trees.

This team has so many holes it will not be able to address them all.

He's not performing up to his contract. Is he worth 2 mil per sack roughly? Paycut or gone

 

[Hoofbite]

You don't restructure Lee. Doesn't even make that much room and 2014 will be the highest cap charge for him for the contract. Take the charge and enjoy $4.5M and $5M charges for 2015 and 2016. Well, enjoy it assuming he's playing.

Having good players takes cap space. How many years can anyone honestly expect to have guys playing on minimum salaries with contracts of $50M or more?

 

[Bungarian]

He's not performing up to his contract. Is he worth 2 mil per sack roughly? Paycut or gone

There is going to be a lot of disappointed fans this offseason