What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

[Bobhaze]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

 

[gimmesix]

I think the idea for most of us is that it's better than nothing.

The reality is that for the next couple of years, Dallas was not going to spend more than a late-round pick on a QB. They did that with Milton, who briefly showed last year that he may outplay his 2024 draft position.

Again, I don't get fans' need to make this either more or less than it is. The team saw some potential and traded for it.

 

[GMO415]

BULLET!!!
Bruh, Romo went undrafted and Dak was a 4th rounder. In DAL, this cat has all the makings of our next starter.

 

[jazzcat22]

NE lasted draft some QB in the 6th round, many years ago. So is it safe to say, NE has a knack for finding QB steals in the 6th round.
History may repeat itself, only it moves from NE's find, to Dallas this time. We may have lucked out.
Props to Jerry.

 

[blueblood70]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

TOM BRADY Romo UDFA , Brock Purdy MR Irrelevant more recent 7th rounder It CAN happen.

I know it's a little different but why is the other positions that can be undrafted or going low rounds, it turned to be starters or hall of farmers.... A big deal seems to be made around here Cowboys trading away ward, who was undrafted act like it was huge mistake. Just maybe NE just made that same mistake..;p

 

[jazzcat22]

When it is all said and done, after 6 SB wins by Milton. This will go down as the "Jerry Heist" better than the Walker trade.

 

[ChronicCowboy]

Is Milton better than a late round QB in this upcoming draft? I’d say that’s questionable. Will Howard or Dillon Gabriel may drop to the 5th round and that would have been a better prospect.

 

[Zman5]

Mr. Irrelevant in SF is still playing and doing OK.

 

[CATCH17]

Hello, Cowboy fan here..

Look up the story of Dak Prescott and Tony Romo.

2 QBs that are not nearly as talented as Milton.

Thanks..

 

[jazzcat22]

Is Milton better than a late round QB in this upcoming draft? I’d say that’s questionable. Will Howard or Dillon Gabriel may drop to the 5th round and that would have been a better prospect.

They could still draft a QB.

 

[ChronicCowboy]

Hello, Cowboy fan here..

Look up the story of Dak Prescott and Tony Romo.

2 QBs that are not nearly as talented as Milton.

Thanks..

What? Both of those guys were way better than Milton in college.

 

[cowboyec]

we missed out on one joe.....montana.
hopefully history just threw us a redux with this joe.
i hope he wears 16.

 

[Coogiguy03]

Anything could happen especially with Dak's health issues!

 

[75boyz]

Other than the outlier of all statistical outliers, the GOAT Brady, the likelihood is slim to none.

Throw in the rarest of rare UDFAs like Warner or to a much lesser successful type in Romo even and you'll rarely, if ever, find effective starters outside of their projected scouting reports.
Not saying it never happens but the instances that it does are very, very rare.

Its why you roll the draft dice and stick with pedigree and draft QBs high.
It's why I am always one of the first ones to show up here once the masses start calling for surrounding a busdriver with talent vice going with an elite franchise guy. This team does not know how to surround a bus driver in order to win a trophy.


Besides, historical numbers support the elite franchise guy every single time.
In both SB appearances and victories.
Period.

 

[Bobhaze]

Mr. Irrelevant in SF is still playing and doing OK.

In the OP I mentioned every Day 3 drafted QB that has become a long term starter.

• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

 

[gtb1943]

Lottery win is what you call a late rd pick that starts and excels.

Warner and Romo are the only UDFA's I know of that made pro bowl. Might be others maybe.

The trade cost us little and so I have no problem with it

BUT anyone claiming this is some kind of master stroke by the Big and Little Enos Circus Circle Jerk is an IDIOT

And anyone thinking this guy will become a top QB is a total dreamer

 

[fivetwos]

The odds are certainly low but I can’t see it that way. Everyone is a different case.

He has talent and a huge upside that needs to be refined with coaching and actual reps. I’m not confident he gets either one here.

My question is if they see him as a legit backup for now, or as an eventual Dak successor (his contract expires before Daks). Maybe both, but this is the same ‘braintrust’ that played Rush over Lance last year….and they paid more to get Lance.

There’s no way the latter works without a Dak injury and being willing to live with the growing pains instead of trying to win meaningless games in a lost season like last year. Who knows with who is running this team. All over the map with everything because they are in way over their heads, yet swear no one could do it better. What does that tell any of us?

 

[speedkilz88]

Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA

 

[KJJ]

At least one fan here is pegging Milton as the next Tom Brady who was also a 6th round pick. Read some of the comments that have been posted since the trade. lol

 

[rambo2]

Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?

• According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
• Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
• Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
• Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.

Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:

• 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
• 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
• 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
• 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
• 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
• 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
• 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
• 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)

That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”

Click heals 3 times. There's no place like Brady.