What are the chances a 6th round QB becomes a starter?

Loso86 said:
I mean this question is wild considering we had an undrafted guy start for 10 years
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Facts:
  • Since 2010, 99 QBs have been drafted. Only 3 drafted between rounds 4-7 have ever gone on to be a long term starter. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
  • Since 2000, there have been over 300 undrafted QBs in !NFL training camps trying to make NFL rosters. In those 25 years, there have been 3 UFA QBs who became long term starters: Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.
My point isn’t that there is no way a guy like Joe Milton can ever be a long term starter. My point is it is an extremely long shot. Impossible? No Likely No.
 
Bobhaze said:
Facts:
  • Since 2010, 99 QBs have been drafted. Only 3 drafted between rounds 4-7 have ever gone on to be a long term starter. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
  • Since 2000, there have been over 300 undrafted QBs in !NFL training camps trying to make NFL rosters. In those 25 years, there have been 3 UFA QBs who became long term starters: Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.
My point isn’t that there is no way a guy like Joe Milton can ever be a long term starter. My point is it is an extremely long shot. Impossible? No Likely No.
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Warren Moon was kicked out of the league before coming back and being a true star...never?
 
Verdict said:
I always enjoy your posts and they usually have a pretty decent thought process behind them. This one is no exception. It’s a well thought out, well reasoned post.

I will however point out that you may be possibly painting this issue with slightly too broad of a brush. I’m not sure that people are o high on Milton that they expect him to unseat Dak because Milton is so good, but Milton has at least glimpses of belonging as a QB on an NFL roster and you may be underestimating just how negatively that Dak is viewed by this fanbase.

In my eyes Dak is a guy who is a stat padder against bad teams, and wins maybe one out of every for or five games against legitimate contenders. The problem is obviously the playoffs are full of contenders and Dak wilts far too often under pressure.

I have as negative of a view of the Cowboys as I have had of the Cowboys since our SB years except maybe the three consecutive 5 and 11 seasons.

I had mostly tuned out when we signed Dak for another term simply because I believe that it was a colossal mistake. Having said that, I have reviewed all of the moves we have made since the season was over and I must say, I am slightly intrigued by what we have done.

The Shotty hire didn’t immediately make me feel all warm and fuzzy, but I think we are seeing what might be viewed as the future sacrificial lamb by Jerry and Co morphing into something a bit more than that.

I think that you will see Shotty run the hell out of the football. His dad always had a legit running game. He’s old school with a bit more imagination. He may not be the coach that McCarthy was but he may have one advantage—-he may get the luxury of actually doing it his way, and I don’t believe that McCarthy ever had that.

I believe Jerry and Co don’t expect to win this year and plan on blaming Shotty when he doesn’t win. But that may be a blessing in disguise for Shotty in that Jerry and Co are playing this a bit more hands off than normal and that’s a good thing.

We are actually doing OK in free agency. The team just needs to stick to its board and add strength up the middle on both sides of the ball. The moves we have made are low risk, high reward moves. And we have mostly used pick swaps instead of just giving away picks. Love to see that.

Milton can run the ball. Dak can’t hit the broad side of a barn anymore in big games. So Milton may play close to Dak’s level even if he’s an overall inferior player.

My prediction is that Dak may finish out his contract but it will not be as a Cowboy.
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Good post.

Something funny: Yesterday I read your post. Today I reread, and it actually reads better from the bottom paragraph up.

I'm one of the very few who liked the Schotty hire from the start. And I agree, this FA class we're picking up is quite intriguing. Now, if they'd only fix that pesky NT spot!!!!!
 
Bobhaze said:
Facts:
  • Since 2010, 99 QBs have been drafted. Only 3 drafted between rounds 4-7 have ever gone on to be a long term starter. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
  • Since 2000, there have been over 300 undrafted QBs in !NFL training camps trying to make NFL rosters. In those 25 years, there have been 3 UFA QBs who became long term starters: Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner and Tony Romo.
My point isn’t that there is no way a guy like Joe Milton can ever be a long term starter. My point is it is an extremely long shot. Impossible? No Likely No.
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I find it mildly amusing how fans always love to back long shots. You can tell them a player won't make it(Ahem....Reggie Robinson, Eric Scott), but it doesn't matter, they just keep gushing about him. Funny stuff.
 
CCBoy said:
Warren Moon was kicked out of the league before coming back and being a true star...never?
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he specifically did not say never about Milton.
but getting this crazed about Milton shows incredible homer tendencies
 
The point should be to everyone including unbelievable homers is that Milton is a long shot to stay on the team any length of time; and even longer shot to be good; and a lottery win if he ever becomes a good starter
 
Bobhaze said:
Hope is a good thing for a fan when you are in the off-season. Hope is what keeps us Cowboys fans from looking at the last three decades and saying, “Here we go again”. This off-season is still in progress and with the draft looming I’m hoping we get lucky and add some meaningful talent.

When the Cowboys acquired backup QB Joe Milton, I was amazed at how many Cowboys fans on this site saw this trade as our future at QB. Joe Milton is certainly athletic with a rocket arm but with a whopping one NFL start under his belt, he has miles and miles to go before he becomes a serious candidate to replace our current QB. The odds he becomes a long term answer here are extremely low.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m past ready to see a different QB under center in Big D. But I’m not so hungry for change that I suddenly become blind.

What is the likelihood that a 6th round QB ever becomes a starter in the NFL?
  • According to Pro Football Focus, the percentage chance of a 6th round QB becoming a long term starter in the NFL is slightly less than 2%. (A long term starter is defined as having at least 10 starts for more than one season)
  • Since 2010, there have been 99 QBs drafted.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 1 meaning first round picks, approximately 46% ever become long term starters.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 2 (rounds 2 and 3) approximately 12% ever become long term starters, and of those guys most are only starting a year or two.
  • Of the QBs drafted on Day 3 (rounds 4-7) less than 3% ever become long term starters.
  • Since 2010, there have been 3 QBs drafted on Day 3 that have become long term starters for multiple seasons. They are Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy. That’s it.
Here are the names of all the QBs taken in round 6 in the last decade. Find the ones that are still playing:
  • 2016: Nate Sudfeld (Wash), Jake Rudock (lions), Brandon Allen (jags), Jeff Driskel (SF)
  • 2017: Brad Kaaya (lions)
  • 2018: Luke Falk (titans) Tanner Lee (jags)
  • 2019: Garner Minschew (jags), Trace McSorley (ravens)
  • 2020: Jake Luton (jags)
  • 2021: Sam Ehrlinger (colts)
  • 2023: Tanner McKee (egirls)
  • 2024: Joe Milton (pats), Devin Leary (ravens)
That’s 14 QBs taken in round 6 the last decade. Maybe Garner Minschew is the best of the group? And he’s been a good backup and spot starter.

What are the chances former 6th round pick Joe Milton is a future starter here in Big D? Answer very low. In the immortal words of Jim Carrey in “Dumb and Dumber”…”So you’re saying there’s a chance?”
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Great post. Appreciate the research.

The thing about QBs picked after round 2 is that there is usually a flaw that limits the QBs game: Inability to run, lack of experience under center, weak arm, slow processing...whatever...there's a big red flag or an unknown that is too risky despite the other good skills. With Tom Brady it was # of games (he was always fighting for playing time at Michigan), lack of mobility and athleticism ...things which he obviously mitigated and overcame. But why? Because Belichick gave him basically 1st round investment. He kept 4 QBs, gave him more and more playing time and then gave him the damn keys to the car in his 2nd year. Most 6th rounders never get the sun/water they need to flower and grow. I think that is changing based on the carousel at the QB position...so while these are undeniably long shot odds...I would say they are slightly better than the previous history of 6th round QBs.
 
Good post, Bob. It won't change the minds of the Dak haters, but it is spot on. Two things are true. What you posted about 6th round draft picks, and also that most QBs drafted in the first round do not live up to their 1st round status. The fact is, there are 32 teams and a small number of them have top QBs. To rational thinkers, the odds of Joe Milton being a franchise QB are very small. But there are some people who will cling to anything if it means Dak is no longer the starting QB.

And of course, pointing out these facts just makes you a "Dak fan".
 
CCBoy said:
Warren Moon was kicked out of the league before coming back and being a true star...never?
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No, what he's saying is that Kirk, Dak and Brock all went to good teams and the teams decided to give the keys to the 4th/7th rounder...that is rare...even if the player might be good...most teams are not handing their franchise over to a lower round pick. The optics, the risk, etc...it just doesn't happen often.
 
kskboys said:
I find it mildly amusing how fans always love to back long shots. You can tell them a player won't make it(Ahem....Reggie Robinson, Eric Scott), but it doesn't matter, they just keep gushing about him. Funny stuff.
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Rico Gathers
 
Aside from the fact that first round QBs may be better choices overall, the reason I suspect that they play more is due to the sunken cost fallacy. A team has invested so much in that player that it's hard to give up on a first rounder, so they often get more chances to succeed and fail than a lower round draft choice.
 
mote said:
Aside from the fact that first round QBs may be better choices overall, the reason I suspect that they play more is due to the sunken cost fallacy. A team has invested so much in that player that it's hard to give up on a first rounder, so they often get more chances to succeed and fail than a lower round draft choice.
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I agree. The only exception to this I can think of was Trey Lance. The 49ers washed their hands of him at the first opportunity.
 
speedkilz88 said:
Tom Brady 6
Roger Staubach 10
Bart Starr 17
Joe Theismann 4
Mark Rypien 6
Matt Hasselbeck 6
Brad Johnson 9
Rich Gannon 4
Mark Brunell 5
Marc Bulger 6
Kurt Warner FA
Tony Romo FA
Dak Prescott 4
Brock Purdy 7
Johnny Unitas 9
Warren Moon FA
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Roger in the 10th man what a steal...thats a little misleading to say the least.
 
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