What are the odds that the big 3 at QB are ....

[Verdict]

What are the odds that ALL of the Big 3 at QB are outplayed by a lesser drafted QB who has a better career than the Big 3? Personally, I think it is 40 percent.

If the question is what are the odds of someone outside the Big 3 having a better career than at least one or more of the Big 3 I think the odds are 80 percent or higher. Now guessing WHO busts and who comes out of nowhere to set the world on fire would be the crap shoot.

I also put the odds of at least one of the Big 3 busting at 80 percent , and at least 60 percent that two or more of the Big 3 bust.

Thoughts?

 

[CCBoy]

The best laid plans of men and mice, often go asunder.

 

[erod]

My guess is that there is probably one star quarterback in the draft, and we have really no clue right now who that will be.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

I think Lynch. ....sitting 2-3 years. ...will be the best QB in the class

 

[erod]

I think Lynch. ....sitting 2-3 years. ...will be the best QB in the class

Very well could be. Could be Cook. Or the Penn State kid. Or Dak Prescott.

Or....and this is very possible....none of them.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

History has generally answered this question: we will see one solid starter to star, maybe a decent clipboard holder or two, and a whole lot of busts. There are a lot of people who seem to think that Lynch, Goff and Wentz will all be 10-15 year franchise quarterbacks; I can only conclude they started following the NFL last week.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Very well could be. Could be Cook. Or the Penn State kid. Or Dak Prescott.

Or....and this is very possible....none of them.

Those are all possible could be my boy from UNC Williams we don't know. That was just my opinion on Lynch. I feel like this is a weak class for QBs

 

[Howboutdemcowboys31]

I think Goff is going to be a star qb, Wentz will be pretty good, Lynch and Cook will bust . Just my .02

 

[tyke1doe]

I don't know who will be good. It all depends on who drafts them, the style of offense they're drafted into, how soon they play and who are their teachers and mentors.

I'm convinced whoever goes to Cleveland is going to have a harder time than if he goes to another club.

But we shall see.

 

[erod]

Those are all possible could be my boy from UNC Williams we don't know. That was just my opinion on Lynch. I feel like this is a weak class for QBs

Nobody expected Aaron Rodgers to be what he is. Same for Flacco, Carr, Wilson, and others.

There could be a diamond in that rough. But they'd better feel dadgum good about it if they draft one at #4.

 

[Bullflop]

QB is likely the toughest position in the NFL in which to predict the success or failure of. The number of variables that combine to determine their futures are staggering.

 

[texbumthelife]

Nobody expected Aaron Rodgers to be what he is. Same for Flacco, Carr, Wilson, and others.

There could be a diamond in that rough. But they'd better feel dadgum good about it if they draft one at #4.

Im pretty sure lots of people expected Flacco and Carr to be good. They were taken #18 and and #36 respectively. Wilson definitely came from nowhere, but Peter Carroll seems to be pretty good at that.

 

[MikeT22]

Very well could be. Could be Cook. Or the Penn State kid. Or Dak Prescott.

Or....and this is very possible....none of them.

True, but I wouldn't put any money on Hackenberg or Dak.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

Nobody expected Aaron Rodgers to be what he is. Same for Flacco, Carr, Wilson, and others.

There could be a diamond in that rough. But they'd better feel dadgum good about it if they draft one at #4.

And where did those QBs get drafted? None was top 5. Rodgers was great value in the late 20s. Wilson was 3rd round pick

 

[MrPhil]

There are a lot of people who seem to think that Lynch, Goff and Wentz will all be 10-15 year franchise quarterbacks; I can only conclude they started following the NFL last week.

My guess is that this is optimism talking. You are correct in that history has shown all three being successful is unlikely but certainly not impossible. For example, in 2004 Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Big Ben were taken in the first 11 picks and I would say that they all are franchise QBs. Again unlikely but not impossible.

As to your last thought, my initial reaction is to counter by saying that those fans that think we can just ride out the remainder of Romo's career without any legitimate effort to find an heir and easily grab a replacement QB in the draft after Romo retires also must have started following the NFL last week.

 

[Stash]

What are the odds that ALL of the Big 3 at QB are outplayed by a lesser drafted QB who has a better career than the Big 3? Personally, I think it is 40 percent.

If the question is what are the odds of someone outside the Big 3 having a better career than at least one or more of the Big 3 I think the odds are 80 percent or higher. Now guessing WHO busts and who comes out of nowhere to set the world on fire would be the crap shoot.

I also put the odds of at least one of the Big 3 busting at 80 percent , and at least 60 percent that two or more of the Big 3 bust.

Thoughts?

No factual basis for any of the 'numbers' being thrown around here.

My thoughts are that this is throwing something against a wall and seeing what sticks.

 

[erod]

And where did those QBs get drafted? None was top 5. Rodgers was great value in the late 20s. Wilson was 3rd round pick

The point is, if teams knew Rodgers would be this good, he would have been the No. 1 overall pick. Wilson would have been a top 5. Romo would have been, too.

Quarterbacks are usually crapshoots. All of them this year seem to be. There might be a good one or two, or they might all be Brandon Weeden, who was a first-round pick, too.

 

[Super_Kazuya]

My guess is that this is optimism talking. You are correct in that history has shown all three being successful is unlikely but certainly not impossible. For example, in 2004 Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Big Ben were taken in the first 11 picks and I would say that they all are franchise QBs. Again unlikely but not impossible.

As to your last thought, my initial reaction is to counter by saying that those fans that think we can just ride out the remainder of Romo's career without any legitimate effort to find an heir and easily grab a replacement QB in the draft after Romo retires also must have started following the NFL last week.

Not at all... just because you and a few other dimwits on this board believe in the myth of Aaron Rodgers doesn't mean that's how it's done in the real world. The overwhelming majority of successful QBs in the league are drafted when needed and play immediately. Nobody drafts players they don't have any intention to play right away or very close to it. Only Madden playing idiots think that's a good idea.

 

[DFWJC]

Nobody expected Aaron Rodgers to be what he is. Same for Flacco, Carr, Wilson, and others.

There could be a diamond in that rough. But they'd better feel dadgum good about it if they draft one at #4.

That Rodgers draft was just weird. It was almost a flip of the coin who would be taken 1st overall, then he ends up taken late in the 1st round.

At least as far as Scout Inc rates them, Rodgers was one of the 2-3 highest rated QBs coming out in the last 10-12 years. I think they had him at a 98 or 99 rating.
Luck had a 99.
Ryan had a 98 and
Winston was a 97.
Bradford a 96. Stafford and Cutler also a 96.
Tannehill a 94. etc
btw...Goff and Wentz are 91s.

just have to remember they also had Russell as a 98 and Sanchez as a 95...so they have missed a few time too.

 

[erod]

That Rodgers draft was just weird. It was almost a flip of the coin who would be taken 1st overall, then he ends up taken late in the 1st round.

At least as far as Scout Inc rates them, Rodgers was one of the 2-3 highest rated QBs coming out in the last 10-12 years. I think they had him at a 98 or 99 rating.
Luck had a 99.
Ryan had a 98 and
Winston was a 97.
Bradford a 96. Stafford and Cutler also a 96.
Tannehill a 94. etc
btw...Goff and Wentz are 91s.

That says perfectly that QB scouting is still in the Dark Ages.

Romo, Brady, and Brees are vastly better than all of them, and they represent an undrafted free agent, a 6th round pick, and a 2nd-rounder.