What are the real world chances of finding a QB after round one?

You want draft ramifications? (Said in my best Jack Nicholson voice)

One: Wallow in QB hell and not even try to find a QB. Bad choice. This usually leads to failure.

Two: If a QB the team believes can be the future is in the draft, get him whether the rest of the team is ready to win or not. This requires a coaching staff/owner to be willing to let said QB go through growing pains as the rest of the pieces are assembled for a team not ready to compete. This is not a bad option if one believes the GM can get the right players and the coaching staff is good enough to get the team on the right track. The Commanders with Jayden Daniels is a good example of this, as is Bo Nix. Dan Snyder selling the team helped a lot!

Three: Assemble the pieces first, than get the QB. Having a ready-made team for a QB is ideal, but risky. First, the QB talent may suddenly not be there to draft. Secondly, the team may not be bad enough to get a top pick, so draft capital would have to be expended to move up and take "The Guy." But if the team is ready, may very well be worth the risk. Windows are short for most teams in this league given contract lengths.

Four: Try to do everything at the same time with team building and QB. This is very difficult, but KC and Philly have pulled this off in recent years. Detroit and Baltimore are trying to do the same. Teams that pull this off successfully or at least are in the game for years are teams that have strong ownership, seasoned GM's with some degree of freedom, and experienced coaches. KC had the framework of a great team in the making when Reid pulled the trade up for Mahomes. Philly was going through a bit of turmoil with the eventual dumping of Wentz, but let Hurts grow into the role with a team that had a bucket full of vet leadership (Kelce, Johnson, Cox, Graham). Both KC and Philly have the GM's to get the job done. I believe Detroit and Baltimore are knocking on the Super Bowl door.

Five: I suppose one could just stay the course and hope for the best. Most likely that's also a failure.
No one is offering how many years in a row you should throw picks away chasing a qb?

Every year? For how many years?


If you do it once every two or three years and fail...your 5+ years down the road without a good QB.

I'm stacking my team with 1st through 4th round non-QB picks and looking for a vet journeyman QB who seems decent enough to busdrive and the game has slowed down for them.

I'm not wasting valuable picks on crapshoot QBs who are highly susceptible to failure.

Let's say you traded up 3 years in a row....that's 9 picks you probably wasted chasing a low percentage player.

Way too much talk about chasing QBs you don't want to pay on this site. Just stack your team, have a heavy running game and find a vet QB.

Spending years and draft capital on the QB chase is old and kinda stupid.
 
No one is offering how many years in a row you should throw picks away chasing a qb?

Every year? For how many years?


If you do it once every two or three years and fail...your 5+ years down the road without a good QB.

I'm stacking my team with 1st through 4th round non-QB picks and looking for a vet journeyman QB who seems decent enough to busdrive and the game has slowed down for them.

I'm not wasting valuable picks on crapshoot QBs who are highly susceptible to failure.

Let's say you traded up 3 years in a row....that's 9 picks you probably wasted chasing a low percentage player.

Way too much talk about chasing QBs you don't want to pay on this site. Just stack your team, have a heavy running game and find a vet QB.

Spending years and draft capital on the QB chase is old and kinda stupid.
Andy Reid disagrees with you. If you pick the right QB, you don't have to chase a QB later. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Would it work for us? Based on Jerry's track record, most likely not.

I am close to 70 and will probably die before I see another Cowboy Super Bowl.
 
Andy Reid disagrees with you. If you pick the right QB, you don't have to chase a QB later. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Would it work for us? Based on Jerry's track record, most likely not.

I am close to 70 and will probably die before I see another Cowboy Super Bowl.
I don't care what Reid thinks.

You haven't answered the question on how long you hemorrhage valuable picks looking for a Golden Boy
 
I don't care what Reid thinks.

You haven't answered the question on how long you hemorrhage valuable picks looking for a Golden Boy
I do care what Reid thinks. He wins. I want us to win. And if I think another Mahomes is in the draft, I spend those picks. If it takes three drafts, I'm spending the picks. If no Mahomes is there, I always go trenches first every year.
 
Nope. Just very realistic.
With other positions in the first round you can get by with a player who becomes a decent player but not at QB if your goal is winning a championship. The odds are much better hitting on a great player at a position other than QB. It’s very difficult hitting on a championship caliber QB. If you don’t have one you’ll keep coming up short. Buffalo has a championship caliber QB and even he keeps coming up short because the team hasn’t been good enough when it matters most.
 
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There's only one question, were they put into a system that fit their skills or where they crammed into a system that fit the coach.
It can make a huge difference.
 
I do care what Reid thinks. He wins. I want us to win. And if I think another Mahomes is in the draft, I spend those picks. If it takes three drafts, I'm spending the picks. If no Mahomes is there, I always go trenches first every year.
Reid works for an organization that isn't being sacrificed for money, though

It's not apples to apples

I personally belief the Jones' would forgo picking a Michael Jordan at QB if they had first overall pick and a the top QB recruit ever....i think they trade out to gaslight the fans and make money.

They don't want Mahomes at QB...they want early playoff exits.

So...this whole board is kind if a waste of time playing make believe as if the Cowboys arentrying to win. They are trying to milk....hence 'cow' boys..the 'milky way'
 
Reid works for an organization that isn't being sacrificed for money, though

It's not apples to apples

I personally belief the Jones' would forgo picking a Michael Jordan at QB if they had first overall pick and a the top QB recruit ever....i think they trade out to gaslight the fans and make money.

They don't want Mahomes at QB...they want early playoff exits.

So...this whole board is kind if a waste of time playing make believe as if the Cowboys arentrying to win. They are trying to milk....hence 'cow' boys..the 'milky way'
I hope you are wrong but my head says you are right.
 
Reid works for an organization that isn't being sacrificed for money, though

It's not apples to apples

I personally belief the Jones' would forgo picking a Michael Jordan at QB if they had first overall pick and a the top QB recruit ever....i think they trade out to gaslight the fans and make money.

They don't want Mahomes at QB...they want early playoff exits.

So...this whole board is kind if a waste of time playing make believe as if the Cowboys arentrying to win. They are trying to milk....hence 'cow' boys..the 'milky way'
Well, Jethro does like shiny toys so he might pick a Michael Jordan
or a John Elway sort of shining star
 
Just my take, but I'm now convinced this applies to EVERY NFL QB. Obviously, some QBs need a stronger supporting cast than others but the Chiefs lost to the Eagles convinced me EVEN Mahomes ( with the league's best HC and OC ) can't do it alone.
Players don’t win Sb, teams do. Eagles were the better team
 
Many posters would like to start drafting QB's every other year or so. And we should do so. There should always be a healthy competition to keep the position fresh, just like all other positions. A team will probably find a decent backup in a later round, or even get lucky and find a starter. How likely is this scenario?

Here are all the QB's selected on Day Two of the draft since 2016 (Dak's draft year):

Day 2 QB's
2023: Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
2022: Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corrall
2021: Kyle Trask, Kellen Mond, Davis Mills
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock, Will Grier
2018: Mason Rudolph
2017: Desone Kizer, Davis Webb, CJ Beathard
2016: Christian Hackenberg, Jacoby Brissett, Cody Kessler

A rather sobering list. The Eagles obviously hit big with Hurts. Every other QB is a JAG, backup or out of the league. Hit rate for starter? 1 out of 18.

What happened in the 3rd and 4th round since 2016? Other than Dak and Purdy, nothing but JAG's and players out of the league. 50 QB's, two starters.

Adding this up, that means since 2016, only three QB's out of 68 drafted after the first round became solid starters: Dak, Purdy, and Hurts. Two have been to a Super Bowl, and only one has won the big game. You might get lucky and find a UDFA (Romo). If you want to include 1999 for UDFA, add Warner.

Going back to 2000, Brady, Brad Johnson, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Jalen Hurts are the only non-1st round QB's to win a Super Bowl. The 1st rounders that did win are Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Flacco, Mahomes, and Stafford.

It's hard to find a QB in this league. If you're not signing a FA or trading for a QB, a team must draft and take their shot probably no less than once every two years.
Waste of time and resources trying to find a new QB. The team is committed to Dak. Get over it.
 
Waste of time and resources trying to find a new QB. The team is committed to Dak. Get over it.
They can be committed to Dak and still trying to find viable QBs. Backup QB is a crucial need for teams and its a need that is much higher in Dallas than it is for other teams given how much time Dak has missed the last 5 years.
 
I would argue that eagles didn't hit it big with Hurts. Hurts can't carry the team and that was obvious in 2023. he needs a strong supporting cast. but he has shown he is capable of getting the team over the top when given those resources. you can many other QBs on the eagles and they see the same success. they have top 3 WR group. one of the top 5 TEs. the best OL in the league. a 2000 yard back. a top 3 defense. and the tush push, which makes every series into a 1st and 9 essentially.

and to your point, that's a very sobering list of QBs. which only goes to show that you have to take a QB on day 1, high in the draft or you have better odds buying a lottery ticket.
Every QB needs a strong supporting cast. Obviously few (Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Mahomes, etc ... ) can get by with less, but if they are the definition for hitting big with a QB then we have on had 4-5 that have hit big over the last 25 years. Reality is Hurts isn't just very good for a 2nd day pick, he is good for a 1st round pick. Not elite for a 1stround pick, but better than most.

I think a fallacy of the OP is the notion that drafting a QB every few years is to make sure there is always competition for the job. Reality is in far and away most cases if a team drafts a QB later than 1st round or early 2nd round it isn't expecting competition, it is hoping to get a productive 2nd teamer and hope he has the ability to develop into more.
 
Every QB needs a strong supporting cast. Obviously few (Brady, Rodgers, Peyton, Mahomes, etc ... ) can get by with less, but if they are the definition for hitting big with a QB then we have on had 4-5 that have hit big over the last 25 years. Reality is Hurts isn't just very good for a 2nd day pick, he is good for a 1st round pick. Not elite for a 1stround pick, but better than most.

I think a fallacy of the OP is the notion that drafting a QB every few years is to make sure there is always competition for the job. Reality is in far and away most cases if a team drafts a QB later than 1st round or early 2nd round it isn't expecting competition, it is hoping to get a productive 2nd teamer and hope he has the ability to develop into more.
Andrew Luck

Never forget
 

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