What if the Cowboys had waited? And another what if

[Bobhaze]

It’s certainly not the end-all-be-all, but if I’m paying top coin for a RB, Line #1: he’s got to be a dynamic runner above anything.

Four (4) career runs of 40+ yards in 1,319 career carries ain’t gonna do it.

It would be like paying $40M per year for a dink-and-dunk QB, and then overstating the importance of how he commands the huddle or stands tall in the pocket. That’s all great, but I’m paying that guy to be special game changer as a passer.

In the end, to me that’s what is the most surprising about Zeke. After his great rookie year, he’s not had very many big splash plays. Any honest Cowboys fan would have to admit he’s no longer a threat to “take it to the house on any given play.”

If you pay a RB top of the market money, and they are no longer a big play threat, what’s the point of the big paycheck?

 

[visionary]

Yes, he did. The reason why he was second guessed so much is because he cost us games with bad clock management repeatedly, and couldn't adjust a belt.

When it went good? We won with the talent we had, not with scheming. I don't care how much of a Garrett homer anyone is, that can't be denied. Our whole philosophy was line up and beat the guy in front of you. Sometimes we did.

I'm not saying i think McCarthy will be a good coach...I didn't even want him here. But that doesn't mean Jerry's Golden Boy should still be here.

You know you’re talking to Garrett’s mother? Right? She’s never gonna admit he was and still is a piece of crap HC. Don’t waste your time

 

[buybuydandavis]

not the craziest thing.
following a great rookie season by Calvin Hill...Coach Landry drafted Duane Thomas.
i'm not saying they should have drafted Cook.
the pick should have been tj watt.

im just saying IF they had stuck to their board and taken Dalvin...1 of 2 things happen.
either the Zeke hold-out never happens or the Cowboys don't give in with Cook in the stables.
it's an interesting what-if to consider.

Playing the What If game, we would have also had a quality back during Zeke's suspension, could have traded Zeke at any time, and all it would have cost us is Taco.

 

[Diehardblues]

We are mess with him and a mess without him.

We are obviously a bigger mess without him. Or at least a backup closer to his ability.

 

[CouchCoach]

The most interesting part of that Elliott saga was what did he know about himself and when did he find out?

No player had ever held out two years prior to the end of the contract, why do that? I think he knew he wasn't the same back and if he waited even a year, the price could fall dramatically.

He didn't lose it after that contract, he did before it got negotiated and he knew the time to sell high on himself would never be better. He has not been the same explosive runner, the same pop when he hits the line and his fumbling issue is connected to an overall decline.

I don't know if he just blew his own tires because of all the contact or there is another health issue with him but he is not the same back as he was those first 3 seasons.

Now, some would be pissed at him but that's ridiculous. The team got a bargain off him the first 3 years because he was the offense. Think the team or QB is as good without his contribution? He forced DC's to do what they seldom had to do, focus on the RB.

With regards to his contract and Prescott's as well, look at it over the life of their time with the team, not going forward from the 2nd contract or tag.

 

[Ranched]

​

 

[starfan1]

The most interesting part of that Elliott saga was what did he know about himself and when did he find out?

No player had ever held out two years prior to the end of the contract, why do that? I think he knew he wasn't the same back and if he waited even a year, the price could fall dramatically.

He didn't lose it after that contract, he did before it got negotiated and he knew the time to sell high on himself would never be better. He has not been the same explosive runner, the same pop when he hits the line and his fumbling issue is connected to an overall decline.

I don't know if he just blew his own tires because of all the contact or there is another health issue with him but he is not the same back as he was those first 3 seasons.

Now, some would be pissed at him but that's ridiculous. The team got a bargain off him the first 3 years because he was the offense. Think the team or QB is as good without his contribution? He forced DC's to do what they seldom had to do, focus on the RB.

With regards to his contract and Prescott's as well, look at it over the life of their time with the team, not going forward from the 2nd contract or tag.

I respectfully disagree the oil that ran the machine known as the cowboy offense was the o-line as they began to get worse so did the running game. Zekes body is a shell of what it once was and part of that could be Garrett and Linehans running approach. They wanted so bad to recreate the 90's dynasty and he took a punishment to his body. He wasnt emmitt Dak wasnt troy and Dez wasnt michael.

 

[Future]

No, I wasn’t. That’s dawning slowly on everybody, too.

If your position is that JG was a good coach, then anything else you say is right only by luck.

 

[McKDaddy]

how bout you don't extend anyone with multiple years left on their deal.

ok, that's a little oversimplified but whole reason you like rookie deals is because they are cheap. definitely should have held his ground with Zeke. Zeke had no leverage. Now team has no leverage.

 

[McKDaddy]

The most interesting part of that Elliott saga was what did he know about himself and when did he find out?

I have wondered this as well. Even if there wasn't anything specific, I think he or his agent realized that he might not make it to an extension or big free agent contract and took their shot before it could happen.

 

[gjkoeppen]

What if Jerry had the courage to stonewall Zeke in his holdout in the summer of 2019? (Like the Steelers wisely did with LaVeon Bell) What if Zeke would have been told they weren’t going to negotiate with him two years early? What if indeed...

In the summer of 2016, the Dallas Cowboys signed Ezekiel Elliott, the 4th pick of the 2016 NFL draft, to a 4 year contract with a 5th year extension option. After 3 very productive seasons (one partially interrupted by a suspension) the Cowboys announced in April 2019 that they would be exercising Zeke’s 5th year option. In fact they announced it before he started his 4th year.

Later in the summer of 2019, Zeke famously headed to Cabo to try and twist Jerry’s arm early in a training camp holdout. Not going into his last year of a contract. After three years. We all know Jerry caved like a cheap suit and made Zeke the highest paid RB in league history.

Fast forward to now. If Jerry hadn’t caved, and we had stayed the course, Zeke’s rookie deal 5th year would be expiring in a few months. Or he could have turned into LaVeon Bell and left. And It’s safe to say had we waited, these things might have happened:

• Zeke would either be receiving a significantly different contract for his future from Dallas, or perhaps even from somewhere besides Dallas.
• Without the albatross of the Zeke deal, our roster flexibility would be much rosier.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20. But paying RBs a king’s ransom in today’s NFL is just foolish. We should have known that before 2019. It’s why the only two other teams that made the same mistake by signing big RB deals with LaVeon Bell (the jets) and Todd Gurley (Rams) both got out of those fat contracts early and cut their losses.

And since Zeke signed his big deal, his performance has fallen off the table. Starting last year when we still had T-Fred and the rest or our once great line. Want evidence?

• Since 2019, Zeke is tied for 25th in the league with just five 20-yard runs in 25 games.
• Compare that to Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, who both have eighteen 20 yard runs during that same 25 game stretch.
• Since 2018, he has dropped from 4.7 ypc to 4.5 in 2019 to 3.7 this year.

So here’s the real question Dallas radio sports man Bob Sturm recently posed:

“If Zeke is no longer breaking big plays — and there are very few cases of players actually getting more explosive with age and wear and tear — should the Cowboys seriously consider turning down his March 2021 activator and playing with $24 million in dead money (split into two seasons) to get out of another doubling-down of his contract in 2022?”​

Count me in on that plan. Maybe we could learn from our mistake and move on as the jets and Rams did.

Here's my thinking on this. We know the cap is going to be smaller next season and after doing a little checking if Elliott is designated as a post June 1 cut the cap hit (dead money) would be the exact same as paying Elliott to play so the savings would be zero. That being said I've said repeatedly that since Elliott's rookie season his production has drop. 2016 he had 1631, 2017 suspension season he had 983, 2018 he had 1434 which is less than 2016, and 2019 he had 1357 which is less than 2018 and at the present rate he won't pass last years amount. Soooooo, yes cut him after the season.
.
.

 

[CWR]

100% correct, no correlation between the two. Also, I willing to give MM more than half a season (a strange one at that) before I declare him as terrible.

Agreed. In hindsight I wish we had gone a different direction, but to be fair MM was put in a very tough spot due to covid and injuries.

 

[Verdict]

I am not touting the Zeke contract as some sort of bargain, but I don’t think that contract is what is holding us back. Whether it was a foolish contract or not, that’s past history.

if you cut Zeke, you are going to eat the remainder of the prorated signing bonus. That’s a factor. How he is playing is also a factor.

Does the fact that Zeke is playing behind a junior varsity line factor into his production? I think you have to consider that, as well.

 

[jnday]

I know I didn’t. Never pick a RB 4. Plain stupid.

If the the offense is based on a smash mouth running game and the whole offense is built around a great offensive line , a great RB and controlling the football, there is nothing wrong with drafting a RB with the 4th pick. Emmitt would have been worth the first pick considering his value to the offense. Problems came from Zeke’s big decline after signing his contract and the OL falling apart. Precontract Zeke was worth the 4th pick, but post-contract Zeke was barely worth a 4th round pick.

 

[Bobhaze]

If the the offense is based on a smash mouth running game and the whole offense is built around a great offensive line , a great RB and controlling the football, there is nothing wrong with drafting a RB with the 4th pick. Emmitt would have been worth the first pick considering his value to the offense. Problems came from Zeke’s big decline after signing his contract and the OL falling apart. Precontract Zeke was worth the 4th pick, but post-contract Zeke was barely worth a 4th round pick.

You make a really good point about how this FO tends to see its talent. If a guy (like Zeke) has a great year like 2016, somehow Jerry automatically assumes that means we’re going to get at least 5-7 more years like that. He desperately wants to believe that.

One of Jerry’s fundamental flaws as a GM is he thinks like a fan. Like most fans, he sees a Cowboys player and makes positive assumptions because that’s how fans think. We WANT our players to be great. Whereas serious and effective GMs look at their talent with a wary eye. They look at a player differently than a fan. They must look beyond best case, pie in the sky visions of the player and become more skeptical. And good GMs don’t wait until after a player is in decline before taking action.

This is reason number 1,000 why having your insecure billionaire owner, who’s looking desperately for recognition and “credit” as a football “genius”, makes a very poor GM. He wants the player he took with the 4th pick in 2016 to be great so he acts accordingly. He wants the WR he gave up a first round pick to acquire to be the guy who is critical to our success. He wants the seriously injured LB he reaches for in the 2nd round in 2016 to be seen as a “brilliant risk”, so he signs those guys to big deals. It’s almost psychotic.

 

[Redball Express]

What if Jerry had the courage to stonewall Zeke in his holdout in the summer of 2019? (Like the Steelers wisely did with LaVeon Bell) What if Zeke would have been told they weren’t going to negotiate with him two years early? What if indeed...

In the summer of 2016, the Dallas Cowboys signed Ezekiel Elliott, the 4th pick of the 2016 NFL draft, to a 4 year contract with a 5th year extension option. After 3 very productive seasons (one partially interrupted by a suspension) the Cowboys announced in April 2019 that they would be exercising Zeke’s 5th year option. In fact they announced it before he started his 4th year.

Later in the summer of 2019, Zeke famously headed to Cabo to try and twist Jerry’s arm early in a training camp holdout. Not going into his last year of a contract. After three years. We all know Jerry caved like a cheap suit and made Zeke the highest paid RB in league history.

Fast forward to now. If Jerry hadn’t caved, and we had stayed the course, Zeke’s rookie deal 5th year would be expiring in a few months. Or he could have turned into LaVeon Bell and left. And It’s safe to say had we waited, these things might have happened:

• Zeke would either be receiving a significantly different contract for his future from Dallas, or perhaps even from somewhere besides Dallas.
• Without the albatross of the Zeke deal, our roster flexibility would be much rosier.

Sure, hindsight is 20/20. But paying RBs a king’s ransom in today’s NFL is just foolish. We should have known that before 2019. It’s why the only two other teams that made the same mistake by signing big RB deals with LaVeon Bell (the jets) and Todd Gurley (Rams) both got out of those fat contracts early and cut their losses.

And since Zeke signed his big deal, his performance has fallen off the table. Starting last year when we still had T-Fred and the rest or our once great line. Want evidence?

• Since 2019, Zeke is tied for 25th in the league with just five 20-yard runs in 25 games.
• Compare that to Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, who both have eighteen 20 yard runs during that same 25 game stretch.
• Since 2018, he has dropped from 4.7 ypc to 4.5 in 2019 to 3.7 this year.

So here’s the real question Dallas radio sports man Bob Sturm recently posed:

“If Zeke is no longer breaking big plays — and there are very few cases of players actually getting more explosive with age and wear and tear — should the Cowboys seriously consider turning down his March 2021 activator and playing with $24 million in dead money (split into two seasons) to get out of another doubling-down of his contract in 2022?”​

Count me in on that plan. Maybe we could learn from our mistake and move on as the jets and Rams did.

You mean count me in as another revisionist history buff.

This is so stupid.

What if Hitler had defeated England in WWII.?

Would we all be speaking German now?

They had all the nuclear scientists and missiles to deliver enough H bombs to kill us all.

There would have never been NFL football..just the Germanic Soccer League.

This sort of endless remaining stuff is so useless and never proves anything.

Zeke has been completely loyal to the Cowboys. He wanted more money becuz he had won 2 rushing titles and was cheated out of the 3rd with a trumped up suspension.

Now he has been run in the ground with sore hammies trying to hold up Kellen Moore's ridiculous offensive gameplans that never win.

Where do you invent these threads? In the bathroom?

I used to like reading some of your threads but lately..you are just doing wild threads of fancy getting clicks.

What is going on?

 

[CouchCoach]

I respectfully disagree the oil that ran the machine known as the cowboy offense was the o-line as they began to get worse so did the running game. Zekes body is a shell of what it once was and part of that could be Garrett and Linehans running approach. They wanted so bad to recreate the 90's dynasty and he took a punishment to his body. He wasnt emmitt Dak wasnt troy and Dez wasnt michael.

As much as that was the case in the 90's with Emmitt, I agree. Most team's OL establish them.

Emmitt wasn't the best RB I ever saw but he was the smartest at avoiding those career shortening hits. If you watched Murray run the year after he left the Cowboys, he wasn't close to what he had been, too many body shots.

Elliott is like a nickel cadmium battery, the more you charge them, the less they come back to full power. And he took a lot of hits in his first two seasons plus the blocking. Emmitt was a great blocker but he didn't sacrifice himself doing it.

 

[CouchCoach]

You mean count me in as another revisionist history buff.

This is so stupid.

What if Hitler had defeated England in WWII.?

Would we all be speaking German now?

They had all the nuclear scientists and missiles to deliver enough H bombs to kill us all.

There would have never been NFL football..just the Germanic Soccer League.

This sort of endless remaining stuff is so useless and never proves anything.

Zeke has been completely loyal to the Cowboys. He wanted more money becuz he had won 2 rushing titles and was cheated out of the 3rd with a trumped up suspension.

Now he has been run in the ground with sore hammies trying to hold up Kellen Moore's ridiculous offensive gameplans that never win.

Where do you invent these threads? In the bathroom?

I used to like reading some of your threads but lately..you are just doing wild threads of fancy getting clicks.

What is going on?

Speaking of wild threads of fancy. Trumped up suspension? Sure it was, all because he's a Cowboy and you're a fan.

 

[Bobhaze]

You mean count me in as another revisionist history buff.

This is so stupid.

What if Hitler had defeated England in WWII.?

Would we all be speaking German now?

They had all the nuclear scientists and missiles to deliver enough H bombs to kill us all.

There would have never been NFL football..just the Germanic Soccer League.

This sort of endless remaining stuff is so useless and never proves anything.

Zeke has been completely loyal to the Cowboys. He wanted more money becuz he had won 2 rushing titles and was cheated out of the 3rd with a trumped up suspension.

Now he has been run in the ground with sore hammies trying to hold up Kellen Moore's ridiculous offensive gameplans that never win.

Where do you invent these threads? In the bathroom?

I used to like reading some of your threads but lately..you are just doing wild threads of fancy getting clicks.

What is going on?

What’s going on? Not much, how bout you? , lol.
No worries. Your opinion on this thread is welcome. The only assurance I can give you today Red is - trust me on this...I never write anything in the bathroom.

 

[Bobhaze]

The most interesting part of that Elliott saga was what did he know about himself and when did he find out?

No player had ever held out two years prior to the end of the contract, why do that? I think he knew he wasn't the same back and if he waited even a year, the price could fall dramatically.

He didn't lose it after that contract, he did before it got negotiated and he knew the time to sell high on himself would never be better. He has not been the same explosive runner, the same pop when he hits the line and his fumbling issue is connected to an overall decline.

I don't know if he just blew his own tires because of all the contact or there is another health issue with him but he is not the same back as he was those first 3 seasons.

Now, some would be pissed at him but that's ridiculous. The team got a bargain off him the first 3 years because he was the offense. Think the team or QB is as good without his contribution? He forced DC's to do what they seldom had to do, focus on the RB.

With regards to his contract and Prescott's as well, look at it over the life of their time with the team, not going forward from the 2nd contract or tag.

This is a very interesting take on holding out early.

I noticed last week when looking at the top RBs statistically after 8 games, the average age of the top 10 RBs is 23.9. Seven of those of those top ten RBs are still on their rookie deals. Zeke starts next year at 26, and is statistically showing obvious decline. Can a RB after 5 years show signs of major improvement? I can’t think of any recent example.