CZ POLL What is the max per year average contract amount you would offer Dak?

[buybuydandavis]

Think about what was the driving force behind 2016. It was the offensive line. We had an aging Witten, TWill, Dez, Beasley, and of course, Zeke. Not exactly the greatest show on turf. That offensive line made everyone look good. Even kept that defense off the field.

Beasley was pretty good, and teams hadn't figured that out yet. That helped a lot. Also helped that teams *hadn't* figured out that Dez wasn't that good anymore.

Even Zeke was something of a mirage. Looked like a generational talent. Turns out it was the oline that was generational. Three All Pros. Leary looking great PFF 80. Free ok PFF 68. Once Tyron and Frederick stopped making All Pro, so did Zeke.

I think it was AKOYE Media who made a video arguing that Zeke was doing worse post 2016 because he just didn't have the same holes after 2016. That was an attempt to excuse Zeke's drop in numbers. What it shows more clearly is that 2016 was all about the oline opening the holes, not the RB running through them.

One more difference maker in 2016. Lee was All Pro. He wasn't just good for himself, he improved the rest of the defense when he was out there. He couldn't make our defense great, but he did lift the defense up enough to make a dominating offense enough to make a dominating team.

 

[Aviano90]

Beasley was pretty good, and teams hadn't figured that out yet. That helped a lot. Also helped that teams *hadn't* figured out that Dez wasn't that good anymore.

Even Zeke was something of a mirage. Looked like a generational talent. Turns out it was the oline that was generational. Three All Pros. Leary looking great PFF 80. Free ok PFF 68. Once Tyron and Frederick stopped making All Pro, so did Zeke.

I think it was AKOYE Media who made a video arguing that Zeke was doing worse post 2016 because he just didn't have the same holes after 2016. That was an attempt to excuse Zeke's drop in numbers. What it shows more clearly is that 2016 was all about the oline opening the holes, not the RB running through them.

One more difference maker in 2016. Lee was All Pro. He wasn't just good for himself, he improved the rest of the defense when he was out there. He couldn't make our defense great, but he did lift the defense up enough to make a dominating offense enough to make a dominating team.

Zeke was special in 2016. It is clear now with objective data his speed declined relative to league average and he fell more to the norm in 2017.

 

[Hoofbite]

1 bazillion isn't an option. What should I pick?

 

[buybuydandavis]

There were several factors why Dallas' postseason ended that season. Blame directed at Prescott should be at the bottom of that list. That said, there is no way of knowing for certain what could have happened if Romo had been inserted into the equation.

And for all the "Romo would have choked!" and "Romo would have ended up a quadriplegic!" critics? Fine. Romo was willing to take either risk. Jerry Jones (and Jason Garrett) could have taken a different gamble. Romo could have been yanked if any sign of choking surfaced. That is what a supposed good head coach should do. Prescott could have also stepped back in if Romo had been taken off the field on a stretcher. Injuries. Happen. In. Football. (RE: See last season).

Romo was playing at MVP level in 2014, but hadn't been healthy since. Could he still play at that level? Maybe, maybe not. But he clearly had the higher ceiling than Dak.

It's weird that people will argue "but Romo would have broke", when that would leave us exactly where they chose to be in the first place, with Dak as QB. Why not take the chance for greatness? If nothing else, give Tony a chance, and if he's not looking good, go back to Dak.

Imagine Romo plays and *doesn't* break. Looks like Romo 2014. Now we've got *two* Pro Bowl QBs. Maybe trade one and build a better team?

Raw deal for Almost Antonio. Took the abuse behind some very bad olines for years, and they won't let him off the bench with the best oline he ever had. With all of Jerry's talk about regret of not getting Tony to the SB, I was surprised he wouldn't give Tony one last chance.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Zeke was special in 2016. It is clear now with objective data his speed declined relative to league average and he fell more to the norm in 2017.

Was Zeke just able to play faster in 2016 because the holes were bigger and more certain to be there? If plays generally work as designed, you can start the sprint from the moment you get the ball. No hem hawing and ***** footing about. Just explode. And that's what Zeke often looked like in 2016. Got the ball, exploded, and a hole to explode through was often there.

What's your objective data that Zeke got slower, rather than *played* slower because the holes weren't as big or as guaranteed?

 

[Aviano90]

Was Zeke just able to play faster in 2016 because the holes were bigger and more certain to be there? If plays generally work as designed, you can start the sprint from the moment you get the ball. No hem hawing and ***** footing about. Just explode. And that's what Zeke often looked like in 2016. Got the ball, exploded, and a hole to explode through was often there.

What's your objective data that Zeke got slower, rather than *played* slower because the holes weren't as big or as guaranteed?

Did the OL fall that far from 2016 to 2017? Hell
Even Morris was able to break off a 70 yard run and he isn’t a home run hitter. He average more yards per carry that year than Zeke and played the 3 games the Oline was at its worst. He also carried the ball against a stacked box at a greater percentage of his carries than Zeke. Viewing the series All or Nothing showed a disinterested Zeke rolling into the facilities looking like he needed to sleep to cure a night of partying.

maybe you can make sense of it but feel free to play around with the numbers. Just change the filters. When you do you can see Zeke far exceeded leagues averages and a rookie and fell much closer to norm in year 2.


https://airyards.com/gamespeed.html

 

[buybuydandavis]

Did the OL fall that far from 2016 to 2017? Hell
Even Morris was able to break off a 70 yard run and he isn’t a home run hitter. He average more yards per carry that year than Zeke and played the 3 games the Oline was at its worst. He also carried the ball against a stacked box at a greater percentage of his carries than Zeke. Viewing the series All or Nothing showed a disinterested Zeke rolling into the facilities looking like he needed to sleep to cure a night of partying.

maybe you can make sense of it but feel free to play around with the numbers. Just change the filters. When you do you can see Zeke far exceeded leagues averages and a rookie and fell much closer to norm in year 2.


https://airyards.com/gamespeed.html

Thanks! I wish they had more years of data.

https://airyards.com/gamespeed.html#
from the graph, Zeke's max on field speed
2016 - almost 22 mph
2017 - around 19 mph

Huge difference. I wonder if Zeke was just roided up in college, and couldn't get away with it anymore in the pros.
He only missed one game in 2016, sitting out the season finale when we were resting guys for the playoffs. Sanchez got the majority of QB snaps. There were no injuries to account for such a big drop off.

Kinda weird data though. Tyreek Hill followed the same pattern. Give me pause on trusting this data.

Maybe the data is ok. Not an artifact of differences between 2016 and 2017 generally. Tevin Coleman keeps his speed in 2017.

 

[Aviano90]

Thanks! I wish they had more years of data.

https://airyards.com/gamespeed.html#
from the graph, Zeke's max on field speed
2016 - almost 22 mph
2017 - around 19 mph

Huge difference. I wonder if Zeke was just roided up in college, and couldn't get away with it anymore in the pros.
He only missed one game in 2016, sitting out the season finale when we were resting guys for the playoffs. Sanchez got the majority of QB snaps. There were no injuries to account for such a big drop off.

Kinda weird data though. Tyreek Hill followed the same pattern. Give me pause on trusting this data.

Maybe the data is ok. Not an artifact of differences between 2016 and 2017 generally. Tevin Coleman keeps his speed in 2017.

They track it. I wish they kept it going too. One thing we do know is Zeke can’t get on the leaderboard after 2018 on top speed. It took me a few weeks to realize Zeke had slowed down in 2017. As a matter of fact, I had argued AGAINST people claiming it were the case (so I can’t take credit for it) until a RB burst through the hole for a nice gain and it turned out to be Morris instead of Zeke to my surprise. It opened my eyes and I dropped my predisposed stance to defend Zeke.

 

[buybuydandavis]

They track it. I wish they kept it going too. One thing we do know is Zeke can’t get on the leaderboard after 2018 on top speed. It took me a few weeks to realize Zeke had slower down in 2017. As a matter of fact, I had argued AGAINST people claiming it were the case (so I can’t take credit for it) until a RB burst through the hole for a nice gain and it turned out to be Morris instead of Zeke to my surprise. It opened my eyes and I dropped my predisposed stance to defend Zeke.

By eyeball Zeke just wasn't as fast after 2016. But I wondered if that was just the nature of the opportunities.
These top speed graphs help a lot. You still get some bias from the true breakaways giving the RB time to max his speed out, but at least it focuses on the max instead of average.
Acceleration plots would be extra cool.

 

[Aviano90]

By eyeball Zeke just wasn't as fast after 2016. But I wondered if that was just the nature of the opportunities.
These top speed graphs help a lot. You still get some bias from the true breakaways giving the RB time to max his speed out, but at least it focuses on the max instead of average.
Acceleration plots would be extra cool.

My breaking like was his longest run against the Cardinals. I think it was 31 yards (maybe a few more but no less). The safety that tracked him down was no speedster. Zeke just didn’t have it in the tank.


BTW, live chatting with you. Though we often disagree we just converse instead of argue. Appreciate it.

 

[jaythecowboy]

They track it. I wish they kept it going too. One thing we do know is Zeke can’t get on the leaderboard after 2018 on top speed. It took me a few weeks to realize Zeke had slowed down in 2017. As a matter of fact, I had argued AGAINST people claiming it were the case (so I can’t take credit for it) until a RB burst through the hole for a nice gain and it turned out to be Morris instead of Zeke to my surprise. It opened my eyes and I dropped my predisposed stance to defend Zeke.

I actually didn't notice till 2018. Zeke has gotten to the point where he seeks out the contact as opposed to running past someone or making them miss. 2016 Zeke could do both. That play vs the Steelers his rookie year where he split the safeties and scored a long td to win the game wouldn't happen now.

 

[buybuydandavis]

My breaking like was his longest run against the Cardinals. I think it was 31 yards (maybe a few more but no less). The safety that tracked him down was no speedster. Zeke just didn’t have it in the tank.

BTW, live chatting with you. Though we often disagree we just converse instead of argue. Appreciate it.

I remember McFadden having some breakaway opportunity and thinking "we're gonna see that speed now!", and then, not. Some plays like that with Dez too, where it was less speed and more expecting him to make a guy miss. And then, not.

Zeke started to just push plays into the middle instead of breaking them wide. He seemed to know he wasn't going to take the edge better than we knew it. Also sad.

Nice talking to you too. Though we don't always agree, I recognize you as someone who can make a point and follow mine. Someone who is *capable* of playing the arguing game.
In this case, your position had better facts than mine, and you produced them. You win this round of the argument game. I think I win the arguing by accepting facts that contradicted my opinion. Too many people seem incapable of that. Their arguments are just rationalizations for positions committed to, and it's all cognitive dissonance rage and sputtering when they are confronted with facts that don't fit their Narrative. I'm getting more liberal with my *plonks* on such people. They can't play the arguing game by rules that make it fun. All too tiresome.

 

[noshame]

My hope is tag and 2 #1s
Please Lord

 

[Flamma]

My hope is tag and 2 #1s
Please Lord

Yes, invoke the Lord. He's often called upon for fantastical requests.

 

[noshame]

Yes, invoke the Lord. He's often called upon for fantastical requests.

Yeah, but for me he usually comes through

 

[Flamma]

Yeah, but for me he usually comes through

Well, even the Lord can't change the rules of the Transition tag. You have to change your request to the non exclusive franchise tag.