What the Bucs Offensive Stats Tell Us

[LonnieElam]

This is not really true. He has a ton of mediocre/bad games in the playoffs. His career playoff rating is barely 90. He's had a lot of very good teams that helped win in the playoffs, but he hasn't had a lot of great games.

With the Pats, Brady had a top 10 scoring defense every year of his career. That gets overlooked just like the Cowboys having the #1 defense in 1992.

 

[Redline360]

Didn't they double their run average for the season against us the first game? Guarantee they plan to run the ball no matter what against us.

Plus Brady is probably going to turn it up several notches

 

[TWOK11]

The only stat missing is Brady's tendancy to turn things up several notches once the playoffs start.

This is a myth, Brady is worse statistically in every way in the playoffs vs the regular season. In his entire career he’s had two postseasons where his QBR was higher than the regular season. Most years it’s MUCH lower.

Now that’s the case for everyone as you’re playing better teams more consistently in the playoffs, but he doesn’t “get better” in the playoffs.

 

[Motorola]

The GOAT- the mighty Tom Brady led an offense ranked 17th this season. In fact, looking at the Bucs offensive stats in both wins and losses, it’s amazing they won 8 games.

First, look at how the Buccaneer offense ranks in the 2022 season:

• Total offense- Ranked 17th
• Rushing offense- Ranked 32nd- dead last.
• Passing offense- Ranked #2
• Scoring offense- Ranked #25 (only averaged 18 pts per game)

So how did the Bucs offense perform in wins vs losses?
WINS VS Losses

• Rushing- avg 95 yds per game in wins/ 55 yds in losses
• Passing- avg 268 yds per game in wins/291 yds in losses

So it’s obvious that if they can run the ball even a little, their chances of winning are greatly increased. The Bucs were second only to the chiefs in passing yards, mostly because they were behind so often.

Other interesting tidbits:

• At the half- in the 8 games the Bucs won, they led at half in 5 of them. In the 9 games they lost, they trailed at half in 7 of them. So you could argue if we are leading at halftime, chances are much greater for a win.
• The Bucs only scored 28 offensive TDs, compared to 52 offensive TDs for the Cowboys. That 28 TD number is incredibly anemic TD total for an NFL offense.

On paper and statistically speaking, the Cowboys are clearly the better team. That does not always translate in the playoffs. But- to me it’s clear, if the Cowboys bring their A game on both sides of the ball, we should win. But again, that’s why the games are played on the field, not on paper.

I'll add to your quality statistical analysis of Tampa Bay's offense a review of their season.
Despite starting out 2-0 in Dallas and in New Oreans, the Buccaneers have struggled throughtout 2022.
○ They have only had a winning record ONE TIME - 3 months ago (October 9th) when they defeated Atlanta at home to go 3-2
○ Tampa Bay's longest win streak was a paltry two games, done twice - first 2 Sundays in November, then again on Xmas and New Year's Day - and both times it just got them back to .500.
○ 5-4 at home, 3-5 on the road.
○ 4-2 in the division (but they were leading the Falcons in the season finale at the half before pullng the starters for rhe rest of the game)
○ 8-4 in the NFC, but were winless against the other conference__going 0-4'versus the AFC North, plus losing to KC.

 

[catskillthunder]

I get it, stats are nice thing to look at to try and measure team A vs team B, but throw all of that statistical data out in the playoffs. Its Brady...he'll throw for like 500 and 5 TD

 

[Cowboy_svt]

The GOAT- the mighty Tom Brady led an offense ranked 17th this season. In fact, looking at the Bucs offensive stats in both wins and losses, it’s amazing they won 8 games.

First, look at how the Buccaneer offense ranks in the 2022 season:

• Total offense- Ranked 17th
• Rushing offense- Ranked 32nd- dead last. Ranked 1st against us apparently
• Passing offense- Ranked #2
• Scoring offense- Ranked #25 (only averaged 18 pts per game)

Still unbelievable Lenny ran all over us and then couldnt run at all during the season, that legitimately scares me and now were much much weaker in the secondary.

 

[catskillthunder]

This is a myth, Brady is worse statistically in every way in the playoffs vs the regular season. In his entire career he’s had two postseasons where his QBR was higher than the regular season. Most years it’s MUCH lower.

Now that’s the case for everyone as you’re playing better teams more consistently in the playoffs, but he doesn’t “get better” in the playoffs.

Statistics are not the only metric that determined the outcomes of games.

 

[Direwolf63]

All I see the the left CB position and how Brady will take full advantage of it. They have good receivers.

Bucs may not be a good running offense but they will run it against this defense. Fournette is hopeless against everybody else, but will have a very good night running the ball

I think if the Cowboys win, it will be an upset. I don't see an upset Monday night

 

[Bobhaze]

The Bucs are also #1 in pass attempts per game at more than 44. Clearly the rely on Brady. The Bucs passing offense is going to stress the Cowboys pass defense because Brady will get the ball to all his receivers. The Cowboys cannot hide their LCB. I think Demarcus Lawrence needs to have a big game this week. Coming from the left side (Brady's right) he needs to get in Brady's face every time he looks to throw in that direction.

He is going to complete some passes but the Cowboys just have to make sure he does not do to them what he did to Carolina.

The Panthers are not a good pass defense and don't have the Cowboys pass rush so I expect they can limit the damage of having incapable LCBs.

I am more concerned about the Cowboys offense coming off the dismal performance against the Commanders. If Dak plays like that again, it is not going to matter what the defense does.

Another key for Cowboys defense will be open field tackling. Brady likes to get the ball out quickly. If a back or receiver breaks the first tackle it’s a problem. Our secondary and LBs must make the tackle on the spot at least 90% of the time or it will be a very long night.

Agree with you that Dak must be way better than he’s been lately. I think he’s pressing too much. in the first 5-6 years of his career he had one of the lowest INT ratios in the league. His bad habit of forcing throws is a crazy new phenomenon this year. He’s just been awful at times. Some of that also is how easy our route trees are to cover. Tons of curls, slants, comebacks, etc. with very few crossing “rub routes” that scheme people open. Dak also needs to be more decisive to just run when his receivers are covered. He’s obviously not what he used to be as a runner but he can still make some plays on occasion.

Whatever happens in these playoffs, I want to see a better offensive scheme installed here. This is still such a simple offense to defend because of its lack of scheme creativity.

 

[john van brocklin]

The GOAT- the mighty Tom Brady led an offense ranked 17th this season. In fact, looking at the Bucs offensive stats in both wins and losses, it’s amazing they won 8 games.

First, look at how the Buccaneer offense ranks in the 2022 season:

• Total offense- Ranked 17th
• Rushing offense- Ranked 32nd- dead last.
• Passing offense- Ranked #2
• Scoring offense- Ranked #25 (only averaged 18 pts per game)

So how did the Bucs offense perform in wins vs losses?
WINS VS Losses

• Rushing- avg 95 yds per game in wins/ 55 yds in losses
• Passing- avg 268 yds per game in wins/291 yds in losses

So it’s obvious that if they can run the ball even a little, their chances of winning are greatly increased. The Bucs were second only to the chiefs in passing yards, mostly because they were behind so often.

Other interesting tidbits:

• At the half- in the 8 games the Bucs won, they led at half in 5 of them. In the 9 games they lost, they trailed at half in 7 of them. So you could argue if we are leading at halftime, chances are much greater for a win.
• The Bucs only scored 28 offensive TDs, compared to 52 offensive TDs for the Cowboys. That 28 TD number is incredibly anemic TD total for an NFL offense.

On paper and statistically speaking, the Cowboys are clearly the better team. That does not always translate in the playoffs. But- to me it’s clear, if the Cowboys bring their A game on both sides of the ball, we should win. But again, that’s why the games are played on the field, not on paper.

Yep, depends on which Dak and Cowboys team shows up..
Our QB and team are soooo inconsistent...

 

[Parademon]

This is not really true. He has a ton of mediocre/bad games in the playoffs. His career playoff rating is barely 90. He's had a lot of very good teams that helped win in the playoffs, but he hasn't had a lot of great games.

35-12 in the playoffs, oh yeah, ton of bad/ mediocre games in the playoffs

 

[Kevinicus]

35-12 in the playoffs, oh yeah, ton of bad/ mediocre games in the playoffs

Way to not understand what I said.

W/L is the team, not QB. First thing you have to understand about football.

 

[Motorola]

This is a myth, Brady is worse statistically in every way in the playoffs vs the regular season. In his entire career he’s had two postseasons where his QBR was higher than the regular season. Most years it’s MUCH lower.

Now that’s the case for everyone as you’re playing better teams more consistently in the playoffs, but he doesn’t “get better” in the playoffs.

Preach.
And - kudos to you 'TWOK11' - to post an opinion that CZers can reserch to determine the validity.

 

[Carson]

Their 3 corners ARE ELITE

Safeties are allowing over 100 ratings in coverage. They also do not cover the TE well

Focus on Schultz, Fergy and Pollard out of the backfield

 

[Verdict]

The GOAT- the mighty Tom Brady led an offense ranked 17th this season. In fact, looking at the Bucs offensive stats in both wins and losses, it’s amazing they won 8 games.

First, look at how the Buccaneer offense ranks in the 2022 season:

• Total offense- Ranked 17th
• Rushing offense- Ranked 32nd- dead last.
• Passing offense- Ranked #2
• Scoring offense- Ranked #25 (only averaged 18 pts per game)

So how did the Bucs offense perform in wins vs losses?
WINS VS Losses

• Rushing- avg 95 yds per game in wins/ 55 yds in losses
• Passing- avg 268 yds per game in wins/291 yds in losses

So it’s obvious that if they can run the ball even a little, their chances of winning are greatly increased. The Bucs were second only to the chiefs in passing yards, mostly because they were behind so often.

Other interesting tidbits:

• At the half- in the 8 games the Bucs won, they led at half in 5 of them. In the 9 games they lost, they trailed at half in 7 of them. So you could argue if we are leading at halftime, chances are much greater for a win.
• The Bucs only scored 28 offensive TDs, compared to 52 offensive TDs for the Cowboys. That 28 TD number is incredibly anemic TD total for an NFL offense.

On paper and statistically speaking, the Cowboys are clearly the better team. That does not always translate in the playoffs. But- to me it’s clear, if the Cowboys bring their A game on both sides of the ball, we should win. But again, that’s why the games are played on the field, not on paper.

If you look at the Bucs you can argue that we will win or lose based on perspective. If you look at the stats set forth above, there is a pretty good case to be made that we should beat the Bucs pretty handily.

But the NFL is a game of matchups. The Bucs were really bad for a stretch in mid season, but Mike Evans “went off” a week or so ago. We are not facing mid season Bucs, we are facing a team that is “coming around.”

Similarly, the Bucs are not facing the mid season Cowboys who were lighting up the scoreboard and having an elite defensive run.

I’m expecting the Bucs to be a really tough “out” for us unless we get up on them early and we don’t turn the ball over. If that happens we have a pretty decent shot to beat them.

Our run defense should be a little better than it has been with Hankins back, and LVE back.

I’m not gonna lie, I think the game is going to turn on how our corners hold up and I think that’s pretty dicey.

I think Dak is going to have a hard time against the Bucs’ defensive front. Dak seems to be a deer in the headlights against the better defensive teams.

 

[TheHerd]

The only stat missing is Brady's tendancy to turn things up several notches once the playoffs start.

100% this. If anyone thinks the Brady playing for these stats is the Brady we'll see Monday night hasn't been paying attention. Monday night we get the goat version. Not saying we can't or shouldn't win, but we need to bring our A+ game on defense to not get shredded.

 

[Carson]

100% this. If anyone thinks the Brady playing for these stats is the Brady we'll see Monday night hasn't been paying attention. Monday night we get the goat version. Not saying we can't or shouldn't win, but we need to bring our A+ game on defense to not get shredded.

You know when he’s on the bench with his head down we are in trouble

 

[lwehlers]

Dak better have a 2 TD lead with under 5 min left with a running game that's working. Absent that, I think we know how this movie ends.

i think that this game will be like last year against the 49ers. behind 20-7 at the end of the third quarter then a furious comeback that will come up short to make it look like it was a close game.

 

[JayFord]

Heres the thing

somehow force brady to hold the ball, their oline is banged up and i think all they starters or most are on ir.....

if that happens we win 31-7

 

[Cowboys5217]

Way to not understand what I said.

W/L is the team, not QB. First thing you have to understand about football.

Nope, the first thing you have to understand about football is that the QB is by far the most important position.