What will make this team a SB Champion?

[Bob Sacamano]

Stat trivia.

As far as teams playing in the last five Super Bowls, not one averaged over 5.0 per rush:

2001 - Rams (4.9), Patriots (3.8)
2002 - Raiders (4.3), Buccaneers (3.8)
2003 - Panthers (4.0), Patriots (3.4)
2004 - Patriots (4.1), Eagles (4.4)
2005 - Seahawks (4.7), Steelers (4.0)

Only two playoff teams have done so during that span:

2003 - Packers (5.0)
2004 - Falcons (5.1)

Sacks ranged between 40 - 50:

2001 - Rams (45), Patriots (41)
2002 - Raiders (43), Buccaneers (43)
2003 - Panthers (40), Patriots (41)
2004 - Patriots (45), Eagles (47)
2005 - Seahawks (50), Steelers (47)

There were only a few 50+ sack clubs in the playoffs:

2001 - Steelers (55), Packers (52)
2002 - Eagles (56), Steelers (50)

great research

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Note: I would say and play better than the other team in the Superbowl but that didn't work for the Seahawks in the last one.

 

[dwmyers]

Just for grins I started thinking about what things would need to happen in order for this team to win the next Super Bowl...

For some of you it may be a certain numbers the team needs to achieve or certain stats particular players needs to reach. For others it may be an issue of total team health. I don't think there are any bad answers. Here are mine:

The defense gives up less than 4.0 yards per rush.
The offense averages 4.0 yards or better per rush.
Drew Bledsoe has a TD/Int ratio of 1.7 to 1.
Mike V has a successful FG % of 80%.
The defense gets 40 sacks or more.
Bledsoe, Ware, Adams, TO, Newman, Roy, Ferguson, Witten can not miss time due to injury.

Those are my keys... what are yours?

Let me be a little more specific about Parcell's goals on offense. His offense is largely a time of possession offense. Obviously he can't do that if his offensive line sucks or his running backs are no good. YPC doesn't mean anything in this context. You don't have to believe me; look it up on http://pro-football-reference.com

For example, his NY Giants team of 1990 averaged 3.79 ypc. He was second in attempts, 8th in yards, 24th in ypc, and 8th in touchdowns. His 1996 New England team averaged 3.44 yards per carry and generally was a poor rushing team. It could pass like nobody's business, however. His 1998 New York Jets team averaged 3.76 ypc. It was 5th in attempts, 13th in total rushing yards, and 4th in overall offense. The only exceptions to this rule among his good playoff teams would be the 1985 New York Giants (4.22 ypc) and the World Champion 1986 New York Giants (4.02 ypc). That was before Parcells managed to ruin Joe Morris.

But the keys to me will be:

* A consistent ball control offense with a top 5 ranking in TOP. Note that ball control can be through short passes or by running. I don't think Parcells is averse to either.
* Very efficient passing game with superb play "in the clutch." We need that to offset YPC issues in the running game.
* A top 5 defense. Whether we get it with a great pass rush or suffocating secondary play is immaterial to me. DeMarcus Ware is a great talent but he isn't Lawrence Taylor just yet. We'll have to play our assignments better than that 1980s NYG team did to be in the running. But note that his SB wins came with a defense ranked #4 and a defense ranked #2.

David.

 

[TheEnigma]

I have three keys to winning the super bowl.

• a defense at the point of starvation cause they are so hungry
• an o-line out to prove their worth
• an attitude that TAKES wins from other teams as opposed to just earning them

We have the players and talent, we just need the attitude.

 

[Big D]

Just for grins I started thinking about what things would need to happen in order for this team to win the next Super Bowl...

For some of you it may be a certain numbers the team needs to achieve or certain stats particular players needs to reach. For others it may be an issue of total team health. I don't think there are any bad answers. Here are mine:

The defense gives up less than 4.0 yards per rush.
The offense averages 4.0 yards or better per rush.
Drew Bledsoe has a TD/Int ratio of 1.7 to 1.
Mike V has a successful FG % of 80%.
The defense gets 40 sacks or more.
Bledsoe, Ware, Adams, TO, Newman, Roy, Ferguson, Witten can not miss time due to injury.

Those are my keys... what are yours?

We must be dominant in 2 of these 3 categories:

offense - defense - special teams.

My personal thought is that it will be defense and special teams.

:starspin

 

[Thick 'N Hearty]

Winning enough games to get into the playoffs and then winning all of our playoff games to get into the Superbowl and then winning that game.

Note: I would say and play better than the other team in the Superbowl but that didn't work for the Seahawks in the last one.

A solid and deep offensive line and more production from the RBs (JJ specifically) as a close second.

 

[WilmingtonHeel]

Great research about sacks obviously that's a big key. Dominating consisently both sides of the ball. T/O ratio plus 7 and higher. Only ONE poster said luck and that's apart of it getting the right bounces, we have't been good enough lately but man we haven't got a bounce to go our way alot

 

[Big Country]

Just for grins I started thinking about what things would need to happen in order for this team to win the next Super Bowl...

For some of you it may be a certain numbers the team needs to achieve or certain stats particular players needs to reach. For others it may be an issue of total team health. I don't think there are any bad answers. Here are mine:

The defense gives up less than 4.0 yards per rush.
The offense averages 4.0 yards or better per rush.
Drew Bledsoe has a TD/Int ratio of 1.7 to 1.
Mike V has a successful FG % of 80%.
The defense gets 40 sacks or more.
Bledsoe, Ware, Adams, TO, Newman, Roy, Ferguson, Witten can not miss time due to injury.

Those are my keys... what are yours?

The defense gives up less than 4.0 yards per rush..... that's doable, make it happen Big D.
The offense averages 4.0 yards or better per rush..... that's also doable
Drew Bledsoe has a TD/Int ratio of 1.7 to 1...... I'd even settle with 1.5 to .8
Mike V has a successful FG % of 80%..... very doable
The defense gets 40 sacks or more..... might be stretching it but that would be awesome
Bledsoe, Ware, Adams, TO, Newman, Roy, Ferguson, Witten can not miss time due to injury..... you forgot JJo... the running game HAS to resurface to make use of what could happen when you have a team that has the most offensive plays in a season and having the highest time of posession... TO is a big plus, but teams will only sit in nickel if the running game sits in the mud like last year.

Defense also needs to stay healthy so you could add Canty, Spears, and our starting LB corps to the list too... any one starter that has contributed significant time during the regular season who goes down with injury and is replaced by lesser talent or experience will hurt as well.

 

[scottsp]

Many of us mentioned health. I think relative health is what we yearn for. Because we understand injuries are a part of the game. There will be some injuries to key personnel, and it will suck. For me, as long as an we don't have some sort of epidemic develop this season, we should ok.

I just didn't want certain of us mistaking that for the occasional ding early on in training camp OR a reserve lineman going down for six weeks. While unfortunate, it's not the definition of tragic as this team goes.

 

[5Stars]

I want the oline and dline to watch videos of their mothers getting slapped around!

I want mean, nasty, Charles Haley type of attitudes from those guys! I want them to eat an illegal immigrant for the pregame meal!

I want all those linemen to inject 12 centimeters of Mike Tysons blood in themselves!

I want them to think that the opposing team are members of Al-Quida!! I want each and every one of them to know that, if you get beat, you have to sleep with Janet Reno that night...on a bed of nails!

They do all this, and the rest will take care of itself!!!

 

[lspain1]

Hmmmm.....................keys to winning. Let's see...........

Score more points than our opponent each week!

 

[Doomsdayblitz]

This team will not win a SB until it builds at least an above average Offensive Line. In our SB years of the mid 90s, we had 2-3 OLs going to the Pro-Bowl every year. The Center position, which, IMHO, is the most important position on the line, had Stepnopski, Gesek, & Donaldson. We always had a backup C who could start for over half the teams in the league. That's why I would have just as well seen another Ohio St. player, Nick Mangold, drafted at the #18 spot, as Carpenter.

Don't get me wrong. Carpenter was the best player we could have found in this draft to complement Ware. However, we had Ayodele, who is a quality OLB with the same size & quickness as Carp. We didn't have a Center the quality of Mangold. Taking Marcus McNeill in the second round would have solidified the RT position for years. He might have even been able to take over the LT position once FA retired in a few years.

The closest route to a QB is through the Center, and right now that position, as well as the RT position, is in question. By drafting the two above players, we still would have had plenty of quality LBs, (especially with the signings of Ayodele & Boiman in FA, and Parham & Hoyte as UDFAs). We also were in good shape with Pierce, Ryan, and Curtis vying for the second receiving TE position, and Ryan Hannam signed in FA to replace Campbell.

We do have a chance to fortify the Oline if we sign mammoth OT Todd Wade to bring size & toughness to the running game. Wade would compete with Petitti & Fabini for the RT position. However it turned out, we would be much stronger at that position, both starting & depth.

All we have to do is look at last year's SB contestants to see that you need a strong Oline to compete. The Steelers & Seahawks both have two of the best Olines, and drafted more high in this year's draft. Gotta keep the line strong...

 

[Da Hammer]

if we win it will be cause of an improved OL and our young D learned how to close out games. also meaning that zimmer would have stopped with the stupid conservative prevent D crap in the 4th quarter and actually learned how to pressure the QB down the stretch

 

[Mentos]

If Drew Bledsoe gets good protection.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Give me a team that has a +5 turnover ratio, 45 sacks, and is ranked in the top 3 in points allowed and you're almost assuredly making the playoffs and probably in the Super Bowl....if not winding up being the Super Bowl winner.

Essentially, if we can get to the QB, force turnovers, not turn the ball over and not give up a lot of points, then we have the makings of a Super Bowl team.


Rich............

 

[Chocolate Lab]

The talented young players on defense have to make their expected progress. Sophomore slumps do happen, but Ware, Spears, and Canty can't have them for us this year.

The offensive line has to be solid and Bledsoe has to stay healthy. We all know that one.

Julius has to stay healthy. We need both him and Barber in order to run effectively.

Carpenter has to be a player almost right away. That's not a given, either, but we don't have any other options over there.

And lastly, T.O. has to behave. He can't be causing internal turmoil and/or media circuses every week.

In short, everything necessary for us to have a dominating defense and an efficient, ball-control offense has to fall into place.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Stat trivia.

As far as teams playing in the last five Super Bowls, not one averaged over 5.0 per rush:

2001 - Rams (4.9), Patriots (3.8)
2002 - Raiders (4.3), Buccaneers (3.8)
2003 - Panthers (4.0), Patriots (3.4)
2004 - Patriots (4.1), Eagles (4.4)
2005 - Seahawks (4.7), Steelers (4.0)

Only two playoff teams have done so during that span:

2003 - Packers (5.0)
2004 - Falcons (5.1)

Yes, yards per rush and yards allowed per rush typically have a pretty low correlation to winning in the NFL. They can make things easier if you're on the positive end of those statistics, but you still have to be able to pass the ball effectively and stop the pass effectively.

Sacks ranged between 40 - 50:

2001 - Rams (45), Patriots (41)
2002 - Raiders (43), Buccaneers (43)
2003 - Panthers (40), Patriots (41)
2004 - Patriots (45), Eagles (47)
2005 - Seahawks (50), Steelers (47)

Hmmm, I had the 2001 Patriots as only having 38 sacks.

However, in the past 10 years, no Super Bowl team had finished with less than 40 sacks in the regular season (besides the '01 Patriots)

There were only a few 50+ sack clubs in the playoffs:

2001 - Steelers (55), Packers (52)
2002 - Eagles (56), Steelers (50)

40-50 seems about the range you're going to see in the NFL. So I always like to see my team get at least 40 sacks (or 2.5 sacks per game). It's got an extremely high correlation to winning, many seasons it actually stronger correlation to winning than turnover margin.

But sacks are so important because it shows an overall health of your team. You're able to get the opposing team in passing situations and punish them when they do. Plus, since you're getting good pressure, you're hurrying the QB.

Looking at our schedule, the only team that traditionally doesn't allow many sacks is Indy. However, teams like Detroit (with Martz as O-Coordinator), Philly, Arizona, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa, and Houston have all had a history of giving up a lot of sacks. So, I could see us reaching 45 sacks or so if things work out reasonably well.


Rich.............