Where do we rank with FiveThirtyEight's predictions?

JD_KaPow

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Their projection basically says the division is a tossup: 0.7 wins separates the four projections, and each team has between a 19% and 29% chance of coming in first. It's all within the noise, especially with unknown quantities at QB in DAL and PHI.
 

AbeBeta

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So we are predicted to finish last in the NFC East?

Nate Silver needs to stick to politics only.

Perhaps you should learn to interpret data.

That's a toss up prediction. He's predicting that anything is possible. Why? Because he's a statistician not some dumb reporter looking for a controversial list that gets clicks
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Perhaps you should learn to interpret data.

That's a toss up prediction. He's predicting that anything is possible. Why? Because he's a statistician not some dumb reporter looking for a controversial list that gets clicks

We're predicted to get half a win less than the last place team. The certainty in the model is lacking but it is what it is.
 

AbeBeta

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We're predicted to get half a win less than the last place team. The certainty in the model is lacking but it is what it is.

You can't say "certainty is lacking" but also then point to the win estimate as meaningful. That's just poor statistical reasoning.
 
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