Who to root for - Playoff Standings

[jazzcat22]

If our chance of winning the division improves, then our chance of making the playoffs improves.

Nope. Not necessarily.

How so? Last time I checked, winning your division puts you in the playoffs...

 

[EST_1986]

If we win the division we are in.

and if we loose the division its doesn't mean were out

 

[jazzcat22]

If we win the division we are in.

What is it that they don't get...LOL...

 

[EST_1986]

How so? Last time I checked, winning your division puts you in the playoffs...

we may have a tight hold on the wild card spot

 

[Direwolf63]

Also pulling for the Saints this week. Packers are a major threat regarding home field and we have the tie break on the Saints.
But the big thing is the Cards beating the Eagles.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

If we win the division we are in.

True. And if we secure a wildcard berth we are in. A win by the Cards makes winning the division more likely but makes securing a wildcard less likely. While one prefers to win the division to the wildcard for a number of reasons, from the perspective of determining one's chances of making the playoffs either is as good as the other. Therefore the question becomes: does a Cards win increase our chances of winning the division more than it hurts our chances of securing a wildcard berth?

 

[Richmond Cowboy]

It's funny how people on the internet have to argue about every little nuance.

 

[jazzcat22]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html

Chart didn't paste correctly, but a link is provided.
Right now, we have a 16% chance NOT to make the playoffs, that's the last column on the right.
We have a 28% chance to get top seed, Cards 2nd at 26%


NFC Playoff Standings
Record Divisional WinnersWildcardNo Playoffs
TeamDivisionWLT1**2**3*4*567
CowboysEast61028%15%11%2%17%11%16%
CardinalsWest51026%20%13%3%9%8%20%
PackersNorth52011%17%16%4%12%11%30%
PanthersSouth3311%5%13%50%< 1%1%31%
LionsNorth52010%15%15%4%13%12%30%
EaglesEast51018%12%9%2%16%12%31%
Forty-NinersWest4304%9%9%2%16%13%46%
SeahawksWest3301%4%5%2%6%9%73%
SaintsSouth240< 1%1%3%16%< 1%1%79%
BearsNorth340< 1%1%3%1%4%7%83%
GiantsEast340< 1%1%2%1%6%8%83%
FalconsSouth250< 1%< 1%1%9%< 1%< 1%90%
VikingsNorth250< 1%< 1%1%1%1%3%94%
BuccaneersSouth150< 1%< 1%< 1%3%< 1%< 1%97%
RamsWest240< 1%< 1%1%1%< 1%2%97%
CommandersEast250< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%< 1%1%99%

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

You might want to try some simple logic some time. Two one loss teams going head to head and one loses. Now we've got a one loss team and a two loss team. Neither of those teams has fallen out of playoff contention. The Cowboys chances of going to the playoffs have not changed.

Yes, Philly losing increases the Cowboys chances of winning the division. But it doesn't make it any more or less likely that Dallas will go to the playoffs.

Goal #1 win the division .

Goal #2 get a first round bye

Cards beat Eagles , we beat Arz and we are in the drivers seat too accomplish both those goals .

 

[Risen Star]

You might want to try some simple logic some time. Two one loss teams going head to head and one loses. Now we've got a one loss team and a two loss team. Neither of those teams has fallen out of playoff contention. The Cowboys chances of going to the playoffs have not changed.

Yes, Philly losing increases the Cowboys chances of winning the division. But it doesn't make it any more or less likely that Dallas will go to the playoffs.

You'll have to sit me down one day and explain to me how you can increase a team's chances of winning the division without increasing their chances of making the playoffs.

Speak slow. I want to write all this down.

 

[Risen Star]

How so? Last time I checked, winning your division puts you in the playoffs...

This is the calculator crowd at it again. Convinced there's a mathematical formula to figuring out football. The kind of guys who take PFF seriously and hang on every short shuttle at the combine.

Every loss by Philly increases the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

You'll have to sit me down one day and explain to me how you can increase a team's chances of winning the division without increasing their chances of making the playoffs.

Speak slow. I want to write all this down.

It's been explained, both in the posted link and in this thread, for those who care to invest whatever effort is required of them to understand. As for those who don't, I suppose they can remain blissful in their ignorance.

 

[Risen Star]

It's been explained, both in the posted link and in this thread, for those who care to invest whatever effort is required of them to understand. As for those who don't, I suppose they can remain blissful in their ignorance.

Its not been explained in a logical manner.

Unless you rely on someone's formula to figuring out wild card berths in October. I do not.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

This is the calculator crowd at it again. Convinced there's a mathematical formula to figuring out football.

Given that we're talking about the calculation of probabilities, one might expect the calculator crowd to have something of value to add.

Every loss by Philly increases the Cowboys chances of making the playoffs.

Flatly incorrect. And it won't become more correct with repeating.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

Also pulling for the Saints this week. Packers are a major threat regarding home field and we have the tie break on the Saints.
But the big thing is the Cards beating the Eagles.

Yep excellent thinking . And , you'd think they'd want too put on a good showing . Prime time game on Sunday night and at home .

 

[Future]

Cards beat Eagles, we beat Cards. Best case.

Well yea lol.

The silver lining in Philly beating ARZ is that Dallas still has them twice. Win those games and that win is irrelevant, plus the Cards have another loss.

 

[Risen Star]

Given that we're talking about the calculation of probabilities, one might expect the calculator crowd to have something of value to add.



Flatly incorrect. And it won't become more correct with repeating.

Given that your calculation of probabilities is completely worthless and this amounts to nothing more than another attempt to geek the NFL, I'll continue to believe that the more losses your division rivals have, the better your chances of making the playoffs.

Hey, what can I say? I flunked math.

 

[Red Dragon]

Flatly incorrect. And it won't become more correct with repeating.

As long as Philly remains the primary rival threat to win the NFC East, every loss by Philly does increase the Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs.

Until Philly becomes a loser like Washington. It doesn't really matter to the Cowboys' playoff hopes if Washington goes 4-12 vs. 3-13.

 

[Red Dragon]

Given that your calculation of probabilities is completely worthless and this amounts to nothing more than another attempt to geek the NFL, I'll continue to believe that the more losses your division rivals have, the better your chances of making the playoffs.

Hey, what can I say? I flunked math.

The vast majority of the time, yes. Unless you're in a very weird situation like Eagles at 10-5 and the Cowboys and Falcons both fighting for the last wild card berth at 9-6, but the Eagles are guaranteed to win tiebreakers against Dallas if PHI and DAL are both 10-6.

In that case, you need the Eagles to beat the Falcons in order for Dallas to get the last playoff berth, because a wild card's your only playoff hope. In that case you need your division rival to win so it would be PHI 11-5 (playoffs), DAL 10-6 (playoffs), ATL 9-7 (no playoffs).


But again, that's a very rare scenario.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

As long as Philly remains the primary rival threat to win the NFC East, every loss by Philly does increase the Cowboys' chances of making the playoffs.

Not so. A loss by Philly (even while it remains the Cowboys' primary competition for the NFC East) can hurt the Cowboys' playoff chances if it decreases our chances at a wildcard more than it increases our chances of winning the division title.