Who to root for - Playoff Standings

[JD_KaPow]

Given that your calculation of probabilities is completely worthless and this amounts to nothing more than another attempt to geek the NFL, I'll continue to believe that the more losses your division rivals have, the better your chances of making the playoffs.

Hey, what can I say? I flunked math.

That seems clear.

Not sure why this is so complicated or hard to believe.

Obviously, we want Philly to lose. That directly increases our chances of winning the division and one of the top 4 playoff seeds. And getting one of the top 4 playoff seeds is always better than getting the 5th or 6th seed. So nothing here changes that conclusion.

But if Philly wins and Arizona falls to 4-2, our chances of gaining a wildcard IF WE DON'T WIN THE DIVISION go up quite a lot. We'll be a full game ahead of every other wildcard contender, and there are two wildcards to be won. This should also be non-controversial. Any model you construct would lead you to that conclusion. The only way NOT to come to that conclusion is to throw up your hands and say, "It's all too complicated and you can't possibly know anything!"

 

[ElGatoGrande]

You might want to try some simple logic some time. Two one loss teams going head to head and one loses. Now we've got a one loss team and a two loss team. Neither of those teams has fallen out of playoff contention. The Cowboys chances of going to the playoffs have not changed.

Yes, Philly losing increases the Cowboys chances of winning the division. But it doesn't make it any more or less likely that Dallas will go to the playoffs.

 

[ufcrules1]

There's making the playoffs and then there's making the playoffs by winning your division and getting a home playoff game. We need the Cards to beat the Eagles and then we need to beat the Cards. I see this happening as well.

 

[honyock]

Its not been explained in a logical manner.

Unless you rely on someone's formula to figuring out wild card berths in October. I do not.

It's been explained, logically, four times already in this thread.

 

[Gameover]

Win 11 or 12 games and quit reading 538!

 

[theSHOW]

There's making the playoffs and then there's making the playoffs by winning your division and getting a home playoff game. We need the Cards to beat the Eagles and then we need to beat the Cards. I see this happening as well.

 

[Direwolf63]

The vast majority of the time, yes. Unless you're in a very weird situation like Eagles at 10-5 and the Cowboys and Falcons both fighting for the last wild card berth at 9-6, but the Eagles are guaranteed to win tiebreakers against Dallas if PHI and DAL are both 10-6.

In that case, you need the Eagles to beat the Falcons in order for Dallas to get the last playoff berth, because a wild card's your only playoff hope. In that case you need your division rival to win so it would be PHI 11-5 (playoffs), DAL 10-6 (playoffs), ATL 9-7 (no playoffs).


But again, that's a very rare scenario.

Yes, but scenario you describe happens in the last week or 2 of the season. Since we are less than halfway through, division rival losses are good for us right now.

 

[tyke1doe]

I'm rooting first and foremost against the Eagles. We win the division, we're likely the second seed - at worst.
The NFC West winner will likely have three losses or more. And, truth be told, I hope Arizona wins the division.
Even if we play there, we have as many fans as the Cardinals do.
The NFC South winner is likely the fourth seed.
The Packers could be the first or second seed, though I'm really not scared of playing in Green Bay because our team and style of play is suited for that weather.
We just need to take care of the Egals.

 

[Nation]

The flaw in the article is that while you say it makes no difference playoff-wise if the Eagles or Cardinals win, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be rooting for Arizona. The Cardinals winning improves our chance of winning the NFC East, and decreases our chance of securing one of the wild card spots. The Eagles winning by an inverse amount improves our chance of winning a wild card spot, but decreases our chance of winning the NFC East. Just because 2-2=0 for making the playoffs doesn't mean one result isn't more important than the other.

 

[Doomsday101]

If the Taliban was playing Philly I would pull for the Taliban. lol

 

[Red Dragon]

If the Taliban was playing Philly I would pull for the Taliban. lol

Uh...... the Taliban wouldn't want to touch a football made of pigskin.

 

[honyock]

The flaw in the article is that while you say it makes no difference playoff-wise if the Eagles or Cardinals win, that doesn't mean we still shouldn't be rooting for Arizona. The Cardinals winning improves our chance of winning the NFC East, and decreases our chance of securing one of the wild card spots. The Eagles winning by an inverse amount improves our chance of winning a wild card spot, but decreases our chance of winning the NFC East. Just because 2-2=0 for making the playoffs doesn't mean one result isn't more important than the other.

As of this week he's got the Cowboys odds to win the division at 66% and to make the playoffs at 90% (and 9% to win the Super Bowl).

For the Eagles it's 33% to win the division, 65% to make the playoffs and 5% to win the SB.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Stupid lead in. Would we rather a division foe win or a non division foe win?

Tough choice!

What is non division foe for 500 Alex.

 

[Bermystar12]

Pretty interesting site...thanks for the link.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Cards beat Eagles, we beat Cards. Best case.

Exactly.

Best scenario is for Philly to lose to Arizona, New Orleans to beat Green Bay, and us beat Washington. That is the best scenario for this weeks slate of games.

 

[JackOfNoTrades]

It makes zero difference if our 5-1 division rival wins this weekend?

You might not want to waste your time on that site.

I always want my closest rival to lose

 

[CliffnDallas]

That seems clear.

Not sure why this is so complicated or hard to believe.

Obviously, we want Philly to lose. That directly increases our chances of winning the division and one of the top 4 playoff seeds. And getting one of the top 4 playoff seeds is always better than getting the 5th or 6th seed. So nothing here changes that conclusion.

But if Philly wins and Arizona falls to 4-2, our chances of gaining a wildcard IF WE DON'T WIN THE DIVISION go up quite a lot. We'll be a full game ahead of every other wildcard contender, and there are two wildcards to be won. This should also be non-controversial. Any model you construct would lead you to that conclusion. The only way NOT to come to that conclusion is to throw up your hands and say, "It's all too complicated and you can't possibly know anything!"

Us.

 

[Nav22]

Some of you should be embarrassed.

"I don't care what math says! Math is wrong!"

 

[AdamJT13]

For those who think that site is wrong about how important the Eagles-Cardinals game is, remember that it is referring ONLY to our chances of making the playoffs at all, not our chances of winning the division. Of course winning the division is better than getting a wild card, but that's not what the article is about. It's about making the playoffs at all, period.

So, yes, we want the Cardinals to win because we want to win the division. But that site is correct when it says that a win by the Eagles would not hurt our chances of making the playoffs overall, because although it would decrease our chances of winning the division, it would raise our chances of getting a wild card. The net effect is that our chances of making the playoffs would be the same.

Another site, playoffstatus.com, breaks it down further, which might help some people understand it better. This site says that a Cardinals win would slightly increase our chances of making the playoffs at all (from 83 percent to 84 percent), while an Eagles win would not change our chances at all (83 percent either way).The difference is how we would make the playoffs -- with a Cardinals win, it's roughly a 60.5 percent chance of winning the division and a 23.5 percent chance of getting a wild card (and 16 percent chance of missing the playoffs). If the Eagles win, it would be roughly a 51.5 percent chance of winning the division and a 31.5 percent chance of getting a wild card (and 17 percent chance of missing the playoffs).