Video: Why Dak is the most accurate. NFL Network

[Haimerej]

Thanks for being truthful.
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I try.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

Aikman had Irvin, Novacek,

Irvin played only 6 games in 1989, his second year with the team. Wasn't as good as he was in later years. Novacek came to the team in 1990, Aikman's second year.

Dez was a 6 year vet with Dak came to the team, a polished (for Dez) receiver. Dak had Williams, a 3 year vet.

You refuse to even consider that Aikman had more obstacles to overcome in his second year so that is PART of the reason he had quite a few ints in his second year, vs. Dak.

No point in further discussions with you on this point, your and my minds are made up....

 

[gjkoeppen]

I used an example of two plays with the same result but very different circumstances. You mentioned stats, I gave an example of how they don't tell the whole story. Not sure what drops or Dez has to do with that discussion.

I think this started with stats for Prescott and somehow Bryant got dragged in. If it wasn't you, then my bad. Stats are a measuring tool and no player plays perfectly every play. With your example of the 2 runs if a back is considered good and the stats show that coaches, announcers, GM's, analysts and whoever. also realize there are/were X number of plays that back had to get those yards on his own to keep up that average. Using your same 2 examples but this time the 3 yard run was because the defensive tackle shot the gap next to where the play was going and a LB had to make the stop after 3 yards and on the other run the center didn't make his block and the back broke the tackle of the defensive tackle and was tackled by a LB after a 3 yard gain. The stats are used to come up with an average. This average is under the circumstances of the game this back on average gains 3 yards per carry. Averages are just that, some are below and some are over to keep that average. Stats are used to get those averages.
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[gjkoeppen]

Irvin played only 6 games in 1989, his second year with the team. Wasn't as good as he was in later years. Novacek came to the team in 1990, Aikman's second year.

Dez was a 6 year vet with Dak came to the team, a polished (for Dez) receiver. Dak had Williams, a 3 year vet.

You refuse to even consider that Aikman had more obstacles to overcome in his second year so that is PART of the reason he had quite a few ints in his second year, vs. Dak.

No point in further discussions with you on this point, your and my minds are made up....

You said it right with Irvin. He wasn't as good as he was in later years and that is EXCATLY what I've been saying about Aikman. You just don't want to admit that there is a 4th round QB that has had a better 1st 2 seasons than Aikman. You want to use excuses for Aikman's poor accuracy early on and don't want to allow Prescott the same time to improve his accuracy.
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[G2]

You said it right with Irvin. He wasn't as good as he was in later years and that is EXCATLY what I've been saying about Aikman. You just don't want to admit that there is a 4th round QB that has had a better 1st 2 seasons than Aikman. You want to use excuses for Aikman's poor accuracy early on and don't want to allow Prescott the same time to improve his accuracy.
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Most fans who still can't except Romo being replaced compare Dak to Romo and they're just 2 different QBs. Or the vast difference in the offense from 2016 to 2017

 

[gjkoeppen]

Irvin played only 6 games in 1989, his second year with the team. Wasn't as good as he was in later years. Novacek came to the team in 1990, Aikman's second year.

Dez was a 6 year vet with Dak came to the team, a polished (for Dez) receiver. Dak had Williams, a 3 year vet.

You refuse to even consider that Aikman had more obstacles to overcome in his second year so that is PART of the reason he had quite a few ints in his second year, vs. Dak.

No point in further discussions with you on this point, your and my minds are made up....

If you check you'll see that I said in Aikman's 2nd season he had both Irvin and Novacek. Novacek a seasoned vet and Irvin who did play in some in 1989 and also had his highest ypc of 20.7 Aikman's 2nd season. So maybe it really was that early on Aikman had an accuracy problem which he overcame.
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[G2]

If you check you'll see that I said in Aikman's 2nd season he had both Irvin and Novacek. Novacek a seasoned vet and Irvin who did play in some in 1989 and also had his highest ypc of 20.7 Aikman's 2nd season. So maybe it really was that early on Aikman had an accuracy problem which he overcame.
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It took a bit for the O line to properly protect Aikman. He got hammered early on. Sort of like Dak in 2017.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

You just don't want to admit that there is a 4th round QB that has had a better 1st 2 seasons than Aikman. You want to use excuses for Aikman's poor accuracy early on and don't want to allow Prescott the same time to improve his accuracy.

Prescott had receivers with more years in the league and a 1,600 yard rusher his first year. Aikman had NEITHER. Dak had an offense that had been run for several years when he came to the team, and an established head coach and offensive coordinator. Aikman's first year was Jimmy's first year. Norv Turner didn't get to Dallas until 1991. There's a difference between excuses and reasons, but you refuse to even consider that.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

Irvin who did play in some in 1989

Oh, I see, Irvin played "some" (6 games, that's only 37% of the season) so that compares to Dez's 6 years in the league?

Not on your life..............

 

[gjkoeppen]

Prescott had receivers with more years in the league and a 1,600 yard rusher his first year. Aikman had NEITHER. Dak had an offense that had been run for several years when he came to the team, and an established head coach and offensive coordinator. Aikman's first year was Jimmy's first year. Norv Turner didn't get to Dallas until 1991. There's a difference between excuses and reasons, but you refuse to even consider that.

And so all of your excuses for Aikman's 1st 2 seasons really actually affected his accuracy? You make it sound like Aikman only threw maybe some ridiculous low number of passes like 200 passes for his 1st 2 seasons but he threw 692 passes and completed 54%. Prescott threw 949 and completed 65%. Both rookies, both learning a new system, although Aikman got the majority of snaps in practice from when training camp opened and Prescott didn't get them until after the 1st preseason game. Your excuses are legit for why the Cowboys didn't win but 1 game Aikman's rookie year but don't hold a lot of water when it comes to Aikman's accuracy when he did throw the ball. As I've said before Aikman became one of the leagues most accurate passer of his time but he didn't start out like that and he worked hard to do it. Prescott is not one of the most accurate passers of his time but he's been more accurate than Aikman for their 1st 2 seasons and people need to give Prescott the same time to improve his passing game like the team and fans did for Aikman.
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[LACowboysFan1]

And so all of your excuses for Aikman's 1st 2 seasons really actually affected his accuracy? You make it sound like Aikman only threw maybe some ridiculous low number of passes like 200 passes for his 1st 2 seasons but he threw 692 passes and completed 54%. Prescott threw 949 and completed 65%. Both rookies, both learning a new system, although Aikman got the majority of snaps in practice from when training camp opened and Prescott didn't get them until after the 1st preseason game. Your excuses are legit for why the Cowboys didn't win but 1 game Aikman's rookie year but don't hold a lot of water when it comes to Aikman's accuracy when he did throw the ball. As I've said before Aikman became one of the leagues most accurate passer of his time but he didn't start out like that and he worked hard to do it. Prescott is not one of the most accurate passers of his time but he's been more accurate than Aikman for their 1st 2 seasons and people need to give Prescott the same time to improve his passing game like the team and fans did for Aikman.
.

You have your view, I have mine.

 

[gjkoeppen]

Oh, I see, Irvin played "some" (6 games, that's only 37% of the season) so that compares to Dez's 6 years in the league?

Not on your life..............

Gee but in 1990 Aikman's 2nd season Irvin had his highest YPC, 20.7, of his career so you trying to use not having played together much just went out the window.
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[LACowboysFan1]

Gee but in 1990 Aikman's 2nd season Irvin had his highest YPC, 20.7, of his career so you trying to use not having played together much just went out the window.
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What a ridiculous argument. Irvin had a grand total of 20 receptions that year, one was 61 and one was 51, when you only catch 20 passes a couple of long ones, which could have been blown coverages or missed tackles, inflates the ypc. Too small of a sample size to mean anything...

 

[BlindFaith]

So they do the work twice in your line of work? Define "supposed to be reviewed? If that is not everything produced then my point has been made.

Is it is statistically justified sample or every unit? You think they grade the 2k or so weekly plays twice?

And this is not about "tools." It's about various guys watching a screen and giving their opinion on a play ranking it from -2 to 2 in increments of .5.

And I am fine admitting I am wrong. I could accuse you of being pigheaded just the same. And if your standard for liking someone is them agreeing with you then I have no interest in being your friend.

2000 plays a week. 300 analysts. Potentially thats 6-7 plays per analyst. Each play is analyzed twice. So that's 12-14 plays an analyst reviews a week. Hardly too taxing.

I'm sure some of those analysts have the all-22.

And all plays that have inconsistent ratings get reviewed by a senior analyst and then a coaching council.

The only thing I have issue with PFF is ratings that tie to play intent, blocking schemes, responsibilities. Looking at tape, any tape, does not always tell the whole story. Someone may actually be doing more than their own responsibility, but in doing so, it appears that they didn't do a good job.

And no, you can like someone and not agree with them. But it's hard to like someone who is condescending and self righteous all the time.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

2000 plays a week. 300 analysts. Potentially thats 6-7 plays per analyst. Each play is analyzed twice. So that's 12-14 plays an analyst reviews a week. Hardly too taxing.

I'm sure some of those analysts have the all-22.

And all plays that have inconsistent ratings get reviewed by a senior analyst and then a coaching council.

The only thing I have issue with PFF is ratings that tie to play intent, blocking schemes, responsibilities. Looking at tape, any tape, does not always tell the whole story. Someone may actually be doing more than their own responsibility, but in doing so, it appears that they didn't do a good job.

And no, you can like someone and not agree with them. But it's hard to like someone who is condescending and self righteous all the time.

That you cannot see that smorgasbord coming up with a unified subjective rating being an issue is interesting.

You admit that some don't have the all-22. My point is still made.

Then of course there is the time constraint. The all-22 doesn't become available until Wednesday. Given the reality of Thursday night games that is prohibitive.

 

[BlindFaith]

I said tight window intermediate throws. More than three quarters of Dak's passes were thrown into tight coverage. He was number one in terms of percent of passes thrown in the 6-10 yard range.

He had the luxury of being able to turn down tight window throws last year because he had more time to find open options.

See my post about the play to Witten a little ways back for an example of a failed isolated route, pressure, and subsequently a tight window throw (he completed the pass on that play).



I'm not talking about the stat in the video. Like you, I don't give much credence to it and think it's poorly formulated, and already mentioned that earlier in the thread.



The offense in 2017 was similar to 2016. In both years, a huge percentage of Dak's passes traveled further than 5 yards downfield compared to his peers. That was a big challenge as rookie, but that year he also had significantly better pass protection and Zeke's presence in the backfield.


31 quarterbacks threw more of their passes behind the line of scrimmage than Dak in 2017.
26 threw more of their passes in the 1-5 yard range.
29 quarterbacks threw more of their passes To 5 yards.

So, how about creating more easy throws for him closer to the line of scrimmage, like most of the league's offenses do for their quarterbacks?

By extension, this also means they underutilized the most effective 1st and 2nd down play in the NFL in terms of success rate - passes to rbs out of the backfield. (A play is counted as a success if it gains 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.)

Which teams do throw it often to rbs on first on and second downs? Teams like Philly, LAR, NE, and NO.




I think there's some misunderstanding here. When you said "To pretend like DAL doesn't use play calling and route trees similar to every other team in the league...", it sounded to me like you were saying that every team in the league has similar play calling. That is what I was disagreeing with. I wasn't claiming Dallas has a unique offense unto its own.



Of course some drop off in production is expected, and I'm not suggesting otherwise, but to what degree? When teams like Dallas and Green Bay lose a key piece like their quarterback, there is a large drop off in the offense. When teams like Minnesota or Philly lose their quarterback or key pieces, their offense can still perform at a reasonably high level.



It's not about predicting a play. It's about predicting which type of play will be most effective given the situation. People are developing systems that can help accomplish this, and teams can use this information to their advantage.


If this was true, it's becoming less true in today's game.

This was a pretty demanding list of items to be answered. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the offense in return. No fanspeak please

Very refreshing to read solid football talk. Kudos!

 

[BlindFaith]

That you cannot see that smorgasbord coming up with a unified subjective rating being an issue is interesting.

You admit that some don't have the all-22. My point is still made.

Then of course there is the time constraint. The all-22 doesn't become available until Wednesday. Given the reality of Thursday night games that is prohibitive.

I didn't admit to anything. I said I'm sure some have it. Could very well be they all have it. I don't know, just like you.

But whatever. Not worth it. Carry on.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I didn't admit to anything. I said I'm sure some have it. Could very well be they all have it. I don't know, just like you.

But whatever. Not worth it. Carry on.

What we know is that none of them had it before Wednesday and they release the grades on Wednesday before the next week of games start.

 

[Haimerej]

I think this started with stats for Prescott and somehow Bryant got dragged in. If it wasn't you, then my bad. Stats are a measuring tool and no player plays perfectly every play. With your example of the 2 runs if a back is considered good and the stats show that coaches, announcers, GM's, analysts and whoever. also realize there are/were X number of plays that back had to get those yards on his own to keep up that average. Using your same 2 examples but this time the 3 yard run was because the defensive tackle shot the gap next to where the play was going and a LB had to make the stop after 3 yards and on the other run the center didn't make his block and the back broke the tackle of the defensive tackle and was tackled by a LB after a 3 yard gain. The stats are used to come up with an average. This average is under the circumstances of the game this back on average gains 3 yards per carry. Averages are just that, some are below and some are over to keep that average. Stats are used to get those averages.
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Uh... yes. That is how stats work.

My point was (and still is) that they only tell part of the story. I'm not sure we'r actually disagreeing here.

 

[Haimerej]

After the Dez decision, this all seems moot. But I said I'd be back.

I said tight window intermediate throws. More than three quarters of Dak's passes were thrown into tight coverage. He was number one in terms of percent of passes thrown in the 6-10 yard range.

He had the luxury of being able to turn down tight window throws last year because he had more time to find open options.

See my post about the play to Witten a little ways back for an example of a failed isolated route, pressure, and subsequently a tight window throw (he completed the pass on that play).

How are you defining tight window throws?

I'm not talking about the stat in the video. Like you, I don't give much credence to it and think it's poorly formulated, and already mentioned that earlier in the thread.

Because you seem to disregard that stat, yet you say they rely on them. So what definition of tight window are you using?

The offense in 2017 was similar to 2016. In both years, a huge percentage of Dak's passes traveled further than 5 yards downfield compared to his peers. That was a big challenge as rookie, but that year he also had significantly better pass protection and Zeke's presence in the backfield.

Perhaps that's on Dak and his reads/progressions. I wasn't on this site at the time but during his rookie campaign I was begging for him to checkdown to Zeke more. IIRC, DeMarco's last year in DAL he more than doubled Zeke's receptions in his rookie year. They weren't designing significantly different plays for Murray in 2016, he just caught a lot of checkdowns.

31 quarterbacks threw more of their passes behind the line of scrimmage than Dak in 2017.
26 threw more of their passes in the 1-5 yard range.
29 quarterbacks threw more of their passes To 5 yards.

His rookie year only BUF had less pass attempts. Last year there were just three teams who threw less than DAL. Saying teams who threw more often threw more short passes doesn't mean much in that context.

So, how about creating more easy throws for him closer to the line of scrimmage, like most of the league's offenses do for their quarterbacks?

Or Dak can continue to grow, get through his progressions and understand better when to check down. You seem to draw the conclusion that since Dak throws fewer short passes, they're just not designed in the plays. Most pass plays have checkdown options.

By extension, this also means they underutilized the most effective 1st and 2nd down play in the NFL in terms of success rate - passes to rbs out of the backfield. (A play is counted as a success if it gains 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.)

Which teams do throw it often to rbs on first on and second downs? Teams like Philly, LAR, NE, and NO.

How many of those passes to RBs are designed to go to them from the start vs simply just checkdowns?

I think there's some misunderstanding here. When you said "To pretend like DAL doesn't use play calling and route trees similar to every other team in the league...", it sounded to me like you were saying that every team in the league has similar play calling. That is what I was disagreeing with. I wasn't claiming Dallas has a unique offense unto its own.

I was basically saying they understand the concepts just like other teams and develop strategies based upon those concepts. They don't use the exact strategy/playcalling, but they're not devoid of a plan.

Of course some drop off in production is expected, and I'm not suggesting otherwise, but to what degree? When teams like Dallas and Green Bay lose a key piece like their quarterback, there is a large drop off in the offense. When teams like Minnesota or Philly lose their quarterback or key pieces, their offense can still perform at a reasonably high level.

Pointing to PHI this last year is like pointing to Hostetler and the Giants 30 years ago. In other words, the rarity of these things happening should underscore the point that it doesn't usually go that way.

It's not about predicting a play. It's about predicting which type of play will be most effective given the situation. People are developing systems that can help accomplish this, and teams can use this information to their advantage.

So when you say a playcall is predictable, you're not saying you can predict it specifically, just what type? Like what? Run vs pass?

If this was true, it's becoming less true in today's game.

***context- the above was a response to my assertion that even good teams are predictable to someone who studies film***

How so? Romo was predicting plays every game he announced. Most offensive schemes operate off of basic principles. The yard line, defensive/offensive personnel/alignment, clock, etc. all factor in to what teams want to do at any given moment.

This was a pretty demanding list of items to be answered. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the offense in return. No fanspeak please

I hope that was satisfactory.