Why Do Some Draft Picks Pan Out and Others Panhandle?

[SLATEmosphere]

Teams should hire me for GM.

I rarely miss on picks.

 

[dallascowboyfanboy]

A lot of being a hit or a dud depends on want to, desire, and I'll show you. Many of the top college prospects spend a lot of time creating an image of themselves and develop their "Q" ratings. High profile star players who play in the big conferences like the Big 12 and SEC know they are already being projected to be drafted in the 1st round during their Sophomore or Junior years. They are constantly being praised by coaches, fans, and media. Remember they have been coddled since High School and know roughly how to deal with reporters, fellow players and coaches. They eat up all the attention and once they are drafted they feel like they "have arrived". Players drafted in later rounds have more to prove to prospective teams and are more driven to make a splash. Some 1st,2nd,3rd rounders hit their potential/peak in College and are great College players. They don't have the same desire that late round draft picks and undrafted players have. These players have not hit their potential yet and need more coaching. THe top players regress if they don't meet the team's expectations the first few years then they finally find themselves out of the league.

 

[Big Dakota]

In my opinion, the reason why quarterbacks in late rounds are successful is because they didn't have the physical tools to dominate at their position in college. It's why a lot of the guys with a "big arm" that can "make all of the throws" and "throw the deep ball" end up busting out -- they got by on their athleticism in college. In the NFL it's all about making that throw between the linebackers and DBs, and being able to read a defense and be accurate.

It's why guys like Romo, and Brady are successful, and guys like Jamarcus Russell are busts, in my opinion. You take a guy that has to be successful by studying the game and working on the mechanics over and over, and you GIVE him the physical tools and what do you get?

Brady at the combine...

turns into Brady today

He gives new meaning to the phrase "pigeon-chested tosser"

 

[ShiningStar]

its a combination that i have said for years that the combine doesnt take into consideration.

1) Heart of the player, who has it, who wants it and who is going to go and take it.

2) Teams, teams themselves dont consider the coaches the player is going to work with and what situation is going to be asked of a rookie. Some do well with time to work, some have to change positions and some are thrown into the fire because of injury to the starter.

3) and the most important aspect. How do they handle pressure? Pressure from the team, the fans, the city, how does a rookie handle being on a 0-15 team and how do some handle being on playoff caliber teams.



Once the combine can asks these questions than they can get more answers to questions that plague them but they choose to do nothing about.

 

[The Realist]

Rat played at TE as freshmen, DE next 2 years, DT his Senior year.

 

[Section446]

Jason Peters was an undrafted TE out of Arkansas that became one of the best LT's the league has to offer.

 

[Rhubarb]

This article gives a bit of insight on how picks are chosen. Doesn't answer the question of how to know, but is still pretty cool

http://www.gladwell.com/2008/2008_12_15_a_teacher.html

 

[TwoCentPlain]

There are so many factors in the equation.

After the draft, the player needs an opportunity (which sometimes presents itself in the form of the starting player getting injured). And the player needs the other players around him to be good. He needs a supporting cast. He also needs good coaching to teach him. Then, he has to stay injury-free. He builds some confidence, gains some momentum, and becomes a good player. And some players come into their own after a couple of years. We are talking 21-22 yr old kids.

 

[Mavs Man]

This article gives a bit of insight on how picks are chosen. Doesn't answer the question of how to know, but is still pretty cool

http://www.gladwell.com/2008/2008_12_15_a_teacher.html

Thanks for posting, as it saves me time from digging up the link. I second this article - lots of interesting stuff in there, as Malcolm Gladwell is always good for a read.

The basic answer is that there are too many variables involved be right 100% of the time, or even 50% of the time. College is not a perfect representation of the NFL, so all scouts can do is project based on opinion and experience, neither of which is 100% accurate.

 

[MapleLeaf]

...college players fail in the pros. And so many present pros just mail in their performances week after week.

It isn't heart, it's partially to do with the physical ability although most of the players at the combine have some athletic ability.

The problem is the one part of the body that is really hard to measure - the brain.

What makes one kid fight through being in Div 2 or 3 to make a career. Undrafted free agents. Kids who are facing career threatening injuries who overcome them.

Some term it heart, but really it all comes as a cumulative development of the brain. If the scouts focused on this more you may find more Bill Bates and Dat Nguyens in the NFL as opposed to the Akili Smiths and Brian Bosworths.

 

[Jimz31]

Like I've always said....the draft is just a crap shoot. I can argue with anyone all day on this.

 

[Blast From The Past]

But it is beyond rare for a guy to flop somewhere where he was Drafted and then become a star somewhere else."

Steve Young with Tampa comes to mind but yes it is rare.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Too many variables to name.

I think alot of it comes down to that fact that you just cant simulate actual game situations to see how the player is going to react. You can have a player do drills all day long, but how will that player perform when it is 3rd and 12 in the 4Q in a rain storm on the road with an all out blitz coming from the defense???


The day you can accurately predict how a player will perform in this situation, then there will be no busts in the draft.

 

[burmafrd]

teams would do better if they got psyche evaluators to first talk to players who have made it THEN talk to the draft choices for hours. Then point out the differences between the two. IT really comes down to desire to excell and the willingness to work like dogs to achieve it.

 

[CliffnDallas]

It's pure kismet.

 

[Four]

alternatively "flash in the pan"

been enjoying your writing, when is the book coming out?

 

[jterrell]

Lots of reasons guys emerge or are busts.

Biggest one is hardest on folks who don't actually talk to the players before grading them: Heart. I don't mean a generic toughness thing or will to win I mean do they even like playing football. Is playing all about buying their mom her first brand new house? If so, they accomplish that draft day so what's left for them?

Ratliff was a 3-4 DE prototype. He was quick but not extremely fast. He was a guy that tends to look a little worse against smaller, quicker interior linemen. Here he found a perfect scheme and OL's that had interior guys all far less quick and almost all larger than him.

Drafting is a science. You gotta mix equal parts scheme, desire, coaching, upside. It's a tough business. You also have to factor in age. Jason Witten and Felix Jones were barely able to order beer at a bar while Terence Newman was 25. That's a huge NFL career difference in years played. Witten will almost undoubtedly go down as one of the all-time great Tight Ends because he isn't gonna be old for a long, long time. Felix has an opportunity to be patient with his carries and develop a pro RB body like Brian Westbrook did. He can slowly assume more carries over time because the guy is a baby.

Another issue though is who they face regularly. A big LT like Flo would not want to face a bunch of 260 pound pass rushers every week. He'd look bad if he had a ton of games against those types. Match ups can buy a guy a few years int he league to adjust. It really does help if the coaching staff has a plan for draftees.

 

[Cover 2]

Other than "heart" (or, as I would call it, "desire" or "drive"), physical development is also something that is very difficult to guage. When you're looking at 19 and 20 year old college players, you're not getting a full sense of what they'll be like when they're 27 or 28 years old. Also, even if a player has the drive to be a good player in college, while you're scouting him, you can't possibly know if that drive will continue 2-3 years from then after he's been in the NFL for several years.

^^This.

Also a poor surrounding cast can keep someone from producing which could hurt their draft stock.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

It almost always comes down to work ethic. A few players are physically gifted and can get by without putting in the extra effort but most are similarly gifted and the effort makes the difference.

Look at Dallas' TEs. I don't think anyone would argue that Witten is athleticly superior but he may be the best TE in the league while Bennett is aproaching bust status. Why? Work ethic.


Give me access to a kid's IQ score and GPA and I'd hit at an even higher rate. A genius getting a 3.1 isn't as impressive from a work perspective than a low IQ guy busting his butt to get a 2.8.

I'd also interview potential draftees friends. I saw Charles Rogers busting from a mile away because I had a friend who went to school with him who claimed he was the biggest lazy pothead she'd ever met. Take 2 minutes to talk to the losers he associated with and you could see football wasn't the end all be all for him but having a good time was.

The issue is you can't tell who is just having fun in college and gets serious when they get a real life and who the light bulb never turns on for. I would have never drafted Bruce Smith and would have been vindicated his rookie year when he was fat and lazy but then something turned around for him and he started to care, becoming one of the most dominant DEs ever.

 

[jay cee]

He was regarded as a better pure talent than Manning.

I still think had it not been for the degenerative wrist condition he might have turned it around after bombing in San Diego.

I kind of thought that also. He had the physical tools, and he seemed to be starting to grasp the mental aspects.