Why latest projections give Cowboys highest chance to win SB, and it's not what you think

[john van brocklin]

I just don't think the Eagles are that good. They should have lost several games by now.
The Cowboys have-after years of trying to be a pass-first team and wasting talented roster after talented roster- finally returned to the ground game and have two superb running backs.
And yes, McCarthy is making the difference. For the first time since Jimmy Johnson, there is real leadership on the sidelines. Parcells was good, but his ego wouldn't let him allow anyone to be the star but him.
Yes; McCarthy is the coach of the year.

Just wish Mac would call the plays....

 

[john van brocklin]

Or the Cowboys just have more fans and more visibility and so get more bets.

Betting lines are set by demand for a betting position, not expert opinion of who is going to win. This year with our high point differential it might be different, but I think historically the Cowboys have underperformed their betting line.

BINGO !!!!!!!!!!

 

[Dakota]

And…the NFC’s #1 playoff seed has not advanced to the SB 3 of the last 4 years. The eagles may get the #1 seed but that’s not a lock to do anything in the playoffs.

When was the last time?

 

[Dakota]

Can Vegas also give us a 1st round bye?

 

[Diehardblues]

Winning 3 straight road games in playoffs would be monumental. I’d be curious last time that was done .

I found the answer. Only been done 5 times.
Last by 2020 Bucs
2010 Packers
2007 Giants
2005 Steelers
1985 Patriots


https://www.sports-king.com/teams-won-three-straight-playoff-games-nfl-3217/#:~:text=The first team to ever win three straight,York Jets, Los Angeles Raiders and Miami Dolphins.

 

[Scottishcowboy]

Or the Cowboys just have more fans and more visibility and so get more bets.

Betting lines are set by demand for a betting position, not expert opinion of who is going to win. This year with our high point differential it might be different, but I think historically the Cowboys have underperformed their betting line.

Gambling has been more of a cultural thing here in the UK that for you lot and the odds dynamic is just down to what is above - it's how many gamblers are betting that drives the odds down as bookmakers want to make cash!

As an example...............and it's really topical. England's odds to lift the world cup over the years have been 8-1 and stuff like that and it's because UK bookmakers know a massive % of the UK population will take that bet (often out of national loyalty). At times, England had little chance and probably would get odds of 14-1 if you were betting in say, Italy. However, pre-internet gambling, English people just blindly stuck £10 on England to win not knowing the odds were statistically really bad for them.

So in essence, it's the sheer amount of Cowboys fans placing bets that drives this and makes it look like we have the best chance to win......simply not the case though.

 

[Praxit]

Winning 3 straight road games in playoffs would be monumental. I’d be curious last time that was done .

I found the answer. Only been done 5 times.
Last by 2020 Bucs
2010 Packers
2007 Giants
2005 Steelers
1985 Patriots


https://www.sports-king.com/teams-won-three-straight-playoff-games-nfl-3217/#:~:text=The first team to ever win three straight,York Jets, Los Angeles Raiders and Miami Dolphins.

..if that happens, we get at least one home game. Is it possible? Of course, we can be the 6th team to accomplish the feat.

 

[J-man]

It's the "sleeper" stats actually.
point diff, turn overs, sacks
Being top 3 in anyone of these "sleeper stats" are usually indicative of Super Bowl teams. Vegas looks at them when setting the lines. Dallas is top 3 in all 3 categories this year. 1 in points diff, 1 in sacks, 2 in turn overs

 

[GMO415]

It can be both McCarthy and Maher.

Xactly. Hahaha

 

[GMO415]

Winning 3 straight road games in playoffs would be monumental. I’d be curious last time that was done .

I found the answer. Only been done 5 times.
Last by 2020 Bucs
2010 Packers
2007 Giants
2005 Steelers
1985 Patriots


https://www.sports-king.com/teams-won-three-straight-playoff-games-nfl-3217/#:~:text=The first team to ever win three straight,York Jets, Los Angeles Raiders and Miami Dolphins.

2022 Cowboys

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Winning 3 straight road games in playoffs would be monumental. I’d be curious last time that was done .

I found the answer. Only been done 5 times.
Last by 2020 Bucs
2010 Packers
2007 Giants
2005 Steelers
1985 Patriots


https://www.sports-king.com/teams-won-three-straight-playoff-games-nfl-3217/#:~:text=The first team to ever win three straight,York Jets, Los Angeles Raiders and Miami Dolphins.

1981 Raiders. First wildcard team to win a Super Bowl. Can't do that without winning 3 straight on the road.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

The iggles are 11-1 and by most accounts among football analyst the odds on favorite to win it all.

Vegas on the other hand says different. Why?

Is it that Dallas has an explosive offense and a stout defense? Perhaps.

Or could it be that Dallas has the only current HC that took a 6th seed team to a SB and won it?

Yes MM could be the deciding factor. Coaching counts.

Two words for you.

Pythagorean wins.

Dallas leads the NFL in them with 9.08 so far and historically, the league leader in pythagorean wins has won the Super bowl in most of the last 10 years. It certainly does not mean anything until the trophy is in hand, but it is a highly predictive metric for picking a champ.

 

[Jake]

The iggles are 11-1 and by most accounts among football analyst the odds on favorite to win it all.

Vegas on the other hand says different. Why?

Because the Cowboys have a larger fan base and lines move based on action.

 

[plymkr]

Two words for you.

Pythagorean wins.

Dallas leads the NFL in them with 9.08 so far and historically, the league leader in pythagorean wins has won the Super bowl in most of the last 10 years. It certainly does not mean anything until the trophy is in hand, but it is a highly predictive metric for picking a champ.

What is a pythagorean win?

 

[Captain43Crash]

I just don't think the Eagles are that good. They should have lost several games by now.
The Cowboys have-after years of trying to be a pass-first team and wasting talented roster after talented roster- finally returned to the ground game and have two superb running backs.
And yes, McCarthy is making the difference. For the first time since Jimmy Johnson, there is real leadership on the sidelines. Parcells was good, but his ego wouldn't let him allow anyone to be the star but him.
Yes; McCarthy is the coach of the year.

It is hard to take you seriously when you start out saying you do not think the Eagles are that good. They have stout O and D lines and way above average talent all over their roster. They are very good.

The Eagles are 11-1 for a reason. If we can take the NFC East from them, then we should be favored over them!

 

[Diehardblues]

1981 Raiders. First wildcard team to win a Super Bowl. Can't do that without winning 3 straight on the road.

Actually Raiders won the WC (1st round) game at home and then the divisional and championship games were on the road.

 

[Diehardblues]

..if that happens, we get at least one home game. Is it possible? Of course, we can be the 6th team to accomplish the feat.

Yes , it could happen. If one of the lower seed WC teams upset a divisional winner we could get a divisional or championship game at home .

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

What is a pythagorean win?

Basically a measurement of how many wins a team should have based on their point differential. The correlation between pythagorean wins and champions in every major US sport is pretty staggering. Give it a search. You can essentially see by how many wins a team is over performing or underperforming their expected record.

Vegas is in the know about these kinds of things and sees a Dallas team with all of the statistical stars aligning. It also doesn't hurt that the huge fanbase helps to move these lines a bit.

 

[Whirlwin]

I say whoever comes up with attitude, because we match up very well. I like our second half adjustments. I really think that makes the difference we’re not the same team in the second half.

 

[BigCowboysHomer]

And…the NFC’s #1 playoff seed has not advanced to the SB 3 of the last 4 years.

Why did you choose 4 years as the time window? Seems odd, like you are cherry picking stats. Go back 5 years and what was the record? Who was the NFC's #1 seed 5 years ago and how did they do?