Why latest projections give Cowboys highest chance to win SB, and it's not what you think

[Bobhaze]

When was the last time?

2019 SF was the #1 seed in nfc. They made it to the SB but lost to KC. Here are the last 4 NFC #1 seeds:

• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

 

[Dakota]

2019 SF was the #1 seed in nfc. They made it to the SB but lost to KC. Here are the last 4 NFC #1 seeds:

• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

So, one could say, we are better positioned than the top seed.

 

[NFCBeasts]

Or the Cowboys just have more fans and more visibility and so get more bets.

Betting lines are set by demand for a betting position, not expert opinion of who is going to win. This year with our high point differential it might be different, but I think historically the Cowboys have underperformed their betting line.

I wish i could like this post more than once

 

[BigCowboysHomer]

2019 SF was the #1 seed in nfc. They made it to the SB but lost to KC. Here are the last 4 NFC #1 seeds:

• 2018- New Orleans was #1 seed in NFC- lost in NFC championship to #2 seed rams.
• 2019- SF was the #1 NFC seed and won NFC championship but lost SB to KC.
• 2020- GB was #1 NFC seed- lost in the NFC championship game to eventual SB champ Tampa Bay who was the #5 seed.
• 2021- GB again had top seed but lost in divisional round to #5 seed SF.

Funny how you keep stopping at 2018 and the last 4 NFC #1 seeds. What happened in 2017? Isn't that relevant to the current situation?

 

[plymkr]

Basically a measurement of how many wins a team should have based on their point differential. The correlation between pythagorean wins and champions in every major US sport is pretty staggering. Give it a search. You can essentially see by how many wins a team is over performing or underperforming their expected record.

Vegas is in the know about these kinds of things and sees a Dallas team with all of the statistical stars aligning. It also doesn't hurt that the huge fanbase helps to move these lines a bit.

Okay. Than you. I'll check it out. You got me interested.

 

[Old'Boyfan]

Until the 'Boys win a playoff game on the road, after the 1st round, I'm not drinking the kool-aid that's going around here.

 

[Jimbo123]

Who was the last NFC #1 seed to win a Super Bowl?

 

[DCwarrior]

They don’t build them big fancy casinos by giving money away.

 

[GMO415]

Because the Cowboys have a larger fan base and lines move based on action.

I don't doubt it, but I have never seen Dallas since the 90s hold this position. Dallas was 11-1 in 2016, and no one had Dallas the SB favorite. When Romo had this team at 13-3 and the #1 seed, they were not the odds on favorite to win the SB.

 

[Jake]

I don't doubt it, but I have never seen Dallas since the 90s hold this position. Dallas was 11-1 in 2016, and no one had Dallas the SB favorite. When Romo had this team at 13-3 and the #1 seed, they were not the odds on favorite to win the SB.

Vegas isn't in the prediction business, they're in the taking bets business. Cowboys fans are excited, for obvious reasons, but being "America's Team" skews the action.

Having the best SB odds is fine, but it's a reflection of Cowboys betting action. The odds change to get action on the other side. It's not Vegas making a prediction.