Why Market Price for QB's doesn't necessarily represent pecking order

[Diehardblues]

Another issue is that everyone has the same money to spend. So teams like LV and NYG and TEN not only don’t have a QB, but they also don’t have the talent around their roster outside of the QB like Dallas does. This means they have even more cap space in nonQB positions than Dallas does that they can redistribute to the QB. So it comes down to a simple “Will overpaying Dak Prescott make us markedly better for the 2025 season and beyond?

And the answer to that is almost certainly a resounding yes, so that is what Dak’s agent brings to the table every time they negotiate. “Give us this much or we’ll get even more than this much next March.” Remember, Kirk Cousins as a FA was in a bidding war between MIN and NYJ, two needy teams at the time. He ended up being paid as the highest paid player in the history organized football, despite never really being a concrete top 10 QB. If Dak is free next offseason, his number is gonna be considerably higher than $60m.

Unfortunately this is reality in the NFL.

There’s basically 2 types of teams in the NFL. One is looking for a Franchise QB( which doesn’t necessarily mean Elite) and the other is trying to build around theirs as best they can.

I’m surprised more teams don’t continue drafting and developing QB’s which would present more options . But the owners seem content with current situation. And generally more than happy to cough it up because a Franchise QB brings stability and more of a contender to build around regardless if they ever win a championship.

 

[atlantacowboy]

To be fair it’s not like he’d be the highest paid very long. Remember after his Market Price contract in 2021 by 2024 he was 14th highest paid .

This is typical for market price with Franchise QB’s. It’s not a pecking order but simply next man in line to get paid .

I know we don’t have to like it but that’s the reality of NFL business . It is what it is.

It’s related to a pecking order or it should be. Paying Dak top dollar is a race to the bottom and resets the qb market in an unhealthy way. Daks not a team guy. He’s a me guy. He cares more about his impact on the pay of other QBs around the league than he does about its impact on the Dallas Cowboys. Let him hit the market and bring his “magic “ somewhere else. This team is better off loading the defense and drafting a QB.

 

[Diehardblues]

It’s related to a pecking order or it should be. Paying Dak top dollar is a race to the bottom and resets the qb market in an unhealthy way. Daks not a team guy. He’s a me guy. He cares more about his impact on the pay of other QBs around the league than he does about its impact on the Dallas Cowboys. Let him hit the market and bring his “magic “ somewhere else. This team is better off loading the defense and drafting a QB.

I agree it should be but it’s not.

Is Tua, Lawrence and Love worth 50+ million?

It is what it is. If you have a QB who is enough to make the playoffs you stay with regardless if he’s not enough for more . That’s reality in the NFL. Franchise caliber QB’s bring stability.

The best alternative is drafting and developing a heir apparent like Packers for example did. But here they are one year later paying Love what they didn’t want to pay Rodgers.

There’s no escaping overpaying Franchise QB’s.

 

[atlantacowboy]

I agree it should be but it’s not.

Is Tua, Lawrence and Love worth 50+ million?

It is what it is. If you have a QB who is enough to make the playoffs you stay with regardless if he’s not enough for more . That’s reality in the NFL. Franchise caliber QB’s bring stability.

The best alternative is drafting and developing a heir apparent like Packers for example did. But here they are one year later paying Love what they didn’t want to pay Rodgers.

There’s no escaping overpaying Franchise QB’s.

All of the above QBs are younger and have higher ceilings than Dak. Love just embarrassed him on his home field and was clearly the better Qb. So, why would you pay Dak more? If anything , Dak should be making less than Love.

. TLAW has never had any help on offense and consistently has among the worst skill position supporting casts in the league. His talent and age justify the gamble. Tua is coming off a breakout year and proved he was an elite passer and all the way back from his injuries.

I’d love to see Dak hit the open market and see who pays him 60M guaranteed. I’d bet anyone he takes less somewhere else.

 

[Diehardblues]

All of the above QBs are younger and have higher ceilings than Dak. Love just embarrassed him on his home field and was clearly the better Qb. So, why would you pay Dak more? If anything , Dak should be making less than Love.

. TLAW has never had any help on offense and consistently has among the worst skill position supporting casts in the league. His talent and age justify the gamble. Tua is coming off a breakout year and proved he was an elite passer and all the way back from his injuries.

I’d love to see Dak hit the open market and see who pays him 60M guaranteed. I’d bet anyone he takes less somewhere else.

Im not a Dak fan but because he choked in a playoff game doesn’t necessarily deflate his value except to some frustrated Cowboy fans.

Teams without a Franchise QB as always will be lined up for Prescott or any Franchise QB hitting FA.

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

How would this team look without a huge cap hit at QB1? Say we brought in a journeyman. A Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield type, while allocating draft assets towards finding the next guy.

Jimmy G signed for 1yr, 4.5m with incentives pushing it over 12m this offseason. Mayfield signed a similar deal with Tampa before earning his extension.

That leaves a ton of cash to supplement the lines, and maybe bring in another offensive weapon or two. Both units are very well built, outside of a couple of obvious holes. That extra cash fills those positions, and we have a more complete team. Doesn't sound like the dark ages to me...

 

[Chasing6]

We continue seeing this argument that some Franchise QB’s simply aren’t worth as much as others. Which in theory should be correct.

We see that Market Price does represent more of a pecking order with other positions .

So why do QB’s who aren’t as great or have as much success as other get paid similar or more than those most would argue are better QB’s.

The short answer is it’s all about when they resign their deal as the Market generally goes up each year with annual Cap increases. But I think there’s even a deeper issue. And it revolves around a few factors .

Supply and Demand . There simply isn’t enough Franchise QB’s to go around . And once you find one you think can build around you want to get him resigned .

The alternatives in general aren’t as easy to build around . First of all you have to go back to the drawing board looking for or drafting and developing another QB with no certainty. Franchise QB also bring stability to these teams, coaching staffs and FO’s.

There is basically 2 types of teams in the NFL. Those looking for a Franchise QB( which doesn’t necessarily mean Elite) and the rest trying to build around one they think can contend or at least be competitive.

Of course the better the QB the easier to build around since Cap hits are going to be similar on contracts after Rookie deal. And the initial reason comes back into play since the rest of those teams looking for a Franchise QB will gladly gobble them up more than willing to pay.

This is why most teams are willing to buckle cause they’d prefer not becoming one of those teams without a Franchise QB. The best exception to the rule is teams which have drafted and developed a potential heir apparent which makes the decision easier if have a QB they already believe can take over.

Occasionally we will see where the best QB’s are the top paid but it’s usually only when their contract is recently signed . In reality there is basically no pecking order anymore for Franchise QB’s as their contracts generally represent the ones who have signed more recently.

This of course is a major problem for some teams trying to build a better team around a QB who arguably isn’t great enough to pay Market Price. But it goes back to the alternatives . The have and have nots which is driving demand and ultimately the market price.

I would love to hear the Market value for Trance after today. Who would like to go first?

 

[Chasing6]

We continue seeing this argument that some Franchise QB’s simply aren’t worth as much as others. Which in theory should be correct.

We see that Market Price does represent more of a pecking order with other positions .

So why do QB’s who aren’t as great or have as much success as other get paid similar or more than those most would argue are better QB’s.

The short answer is it’s all about when they resign their deal as the Market generally goes up each year with annual Cap increases. But I think there’s even a deeper issue. And it revolves around a few factors .

Supply and Demand . There simply isn’t enough Franchise QB’s to go around . And once you find one you think can build around you want to get him resigned .

The alternatives in general aren’t as easy to build around . First of all you have to go back to the drawing board looking for or drafting and developing another QB with no certainty. Franchise QB also bring stability to these teams, coaching staffs and FO’s.

There is basically 2 types of teams in the NFL. Those looking for a Franchise QB( which doesn’t necessarily mean Elite) and the rest trying to build around one they think can contend or at least be competitive.

Of course the better the QB the easier to build around since Cap hits are going to be similar on contracts after Rookie deal. And the initial reason comes back into play since the rest of those teams looking for a Franchise QB will gladly gobble them up more than willing to pay.

This is why most teams are willing to buckle cause they’d prefer not becoming one of those teams without a Franchise QB. The best exception to the rule is teams which have drafted and developed a potential heir apparent which makes the decision easier if have a QB they already believe can take over.

Occasionally we will see where the best QB’s are the top paid but it’s usually only when their contract is recently signed . In reality there is basically no pecking order anymore for Franchise QB’s as their contracts generally represent the ones who have signed more recently.

This of course is a major problem for some teams trying to build a better team around a QB who arguably isn’t great enough to pay Market Price. But it goes back to the alternatives . The have and have nots which is driving demand and ultimately the market price.

If it is all about when they resign, then I guess Trance will make $60M+ next year.

 

[Bobhaze]

To me, the biggest problem this team has in competing in the playoffs has to do with the front office not understanding what their starting QB needs around him to win playoff games. This goes all the way back to Aikman at the end of his career, then Romo and now Dak.

Aikman won those three SBs with a great running game, and a great defense, on top of his greatness. But after the great 1995 SB season, Troy was 1-3 in the playoffs. There are many reasons why but I believe after Jimmy left there was no understanding that even great QBs like Troy need the right kind of roster around them.

When Romo arrived as the exciting new starter in 2006, we all had hope. And for a short time, Romo was on a cheap deal allowing Jerry plenty of cap space to get the right help for Romo. JJ stupidly once said Romo didn’t need a great line because of his escapability. It wasn’t until 2014 when the Cowboys had added Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin did Romo show what he could have been. He had a great running game and great protection. But no defense. Romo won two playoff games.

And now Dak. Sure he has played poorly in several playoff games, but like this FO did with Romo and even the end of Troy‘s career before that, they do not understand that even really good QBs need the right kind of help to truly be competitive in the playoffs.

There are many people on our forum who believe all you need to win a SB is a great QB. The rest of the roster is not that important. That’s just wrong.

As a huge Texas Tech fan, I saw every college game Patrick Mahomes played. He was great. But while at Tech his teams only had 1 season with a winning record and that was 7-6. Why? He didn’t have enough around him. He never had a defense. I could go on and on but despite his greatness, while Mahomes was at Tech they were not that good.

My bottom line point is this: It doesn’t matter what QB we bring to Big D, our current GM and son do NOT know how to build a roster that supports the QB they have. We have lots of receipts to prove that.

 

[Chasing6]

To me, the biggest problem this team has in competing in the playoffs has to do with the front office not understanding what their starting QB needs around him to win playoff games. This goes all the way back to Aikman at the end of his career, then Romo and now Dak.

Aikman won those three SBs with a great running game, and a great defense, on top of his greatness. But after the great 1995 SB season, Troy was 1-3 in the playoffs. There are many reasons why but I believe after Jimmy left there was no understanding that even great QBs like Troy need the right kind of roster around them.

When Romo arrived as the exciting new starter in 2006, we all had hope. And for a short time, Romo was on a cheap deal allowing Jerry plenty of cap space to get the right help for Romo. JJ stupidly once said Romo didn’t need a great line because of his escapability. It wasn’t until 2014 when the Cowboys had added Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin did Romo show what he could have been. He had a great running game and great protection. But no defense. Romo won two playoff games.

And now Dak. Sure he has played poorly in several playoff games, but like this FO did with Romo and even the end of Troy‘s career before that, they do not understand that even really good QBs need the right kind of help to truly be competitive in the playoffs.

There are many people on our forum who believe all you need to win a SB is a great QB. The rest of the roster is not that important. That’s just wrong.

As a huge Texas Tech fan, I saw every college game Patrick Mahomes played. He was great. But while at Tech his teams only had 1 season with a winning record and that was 7-6. Why? He didn’t have enough around him. He never had a defense. I could go on and on but despite his greatness, while Mahomes was at Tech they were not that good.

My bottom line point is this: It doesn’t matter what QB we bring to Big D, our current GM and son do NOT know how to build a roster that supports the QB they have. We have lots of receipts to prove that.

Be careful our fans think Troy carried the team, with is 1 TD and 1 INT per game.

 

[Diehardblues]

How would this team look without a huge cap hit at QB1? Say we brought in a journeyman. A Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield type, while allocating draft assets towards finding the next guy.

Jimmy G signed for 1yr, 4.5m with incentives pushing it over 12m this offseason. Mayfield signed a similar deal with Tampa before earning his extension.

That leaves a ton of cash to supplement the lines, and maybe bring in another offensive weapon or two. Both units are very well built, outside of a couple of obvious holes. That extra cash fills those positions, and we have a more complete team. Doesn't sound like the dark ages to me...

But that’s assuming our leadership can properly address those weaknesses .

Refer to Bobhaze post above.

 

[Chasing6]

How would this team look without a huge cap hit at QB1? Say we brought in a journeyman. A Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, or Baker Mayfield type, while allocating draft assets towards finding the next guy.

Jimmy G signed for 1yr, 4.5m with incentives pushing it over 12m this offseason. Mayfield signed a similar deal with Tampa before earning his extension.

That leaves a ton of cash to supplement the lines, and maybe bring in another offensive weapon or two. Both units are very well built, outside of a couple of obvious holes. That extra cash fills those positions, and we have a more complete team. Doesn't sound like the dark ages to me...

I thought Trance beat our Jimmy G. Why would we do that?

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

I thought Trance beat our Jimmy G. Why would we do that?

Trey Lance has done nothing in the league. Why would you think it would be any different here?

 

[Chasing6]

Trey Lance has done nothing in the league. Why would you think it would be any different here?

I don't. That is why I call him Trance. Just waiting for the spell to wear off on the rest of the Cowboy fans.

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

I don't. That is why I call him Trance. Just waiting for the spell to wear off on the rest of the Cowboy fans.

Lance has god gifted physical talent, but was far too green to be drafted where he was, and it appears he still has a ways to go before becoming a viable option. There are very few that saw/see him as a legit replacement option.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

I hear you, but in these times QB's having a good season/playoffs can make huge money strapping these teams. I'm not sure what can be done if anything, but is having a franchise qb worth strapping your team from building a championship team?

You don't have a championship team without a franchise QB.

 

[Chasing6]

Lance has god gifted physical talent, but was far too green to be drafted where he was, and it appears he still has a ways to go before becoming a viable option. There are very few that saw/see him as a legit replacement option.

Trance's Agent should win some kind of an award for pulling of what he did.

On the flip side Lynch owes his career to Purdy, because he should have been fired for trading up for him.

That trade will be known for why the Niners missed their SB window.

 

[conner01]

Good post. Essentially, it is and always has been economics. I have been saying it for years.

The obstacles are merit-based compensation and who assigns value to the player. Those are the two main things some people have the hardest time wrapping their heads around.

Wins and statistics matter but those are merit-based factors which do not weigh as much as some believe. The next consideration is who are the buyers of market are and how many. The buyers are the owners. There can be several owners bidding for a player's services. It can be a single owner.

The exact number of buyers depend on the degree of value they equate to the player being sought after. The number of buyers will always equal zero if a player's value does not measure up to an owner or owners' want or desire.

Demand will always outstrip supply for every position but supply is generally tightest with quarterbacks. Owners will latch on and hold onto those players they believe are 'good enough' or better, far longer than those on the outside looking in, who do not see the same value that the owners do.

At the QB position demand has and always will out strip supply. That’s why they make, and will continue to make new record contracts. And it’s not gonna stop till revenue stops growing. As long as revenue is growing QB’s will keep breaking records for pay and it is, and never has been about a pecking order. Most other positions tend to be close to the pecking order but QB is just different

 

[conner01]

You don't have a championship team without a franchise QB.

I agree though defining a franchise QB is kinda an opinion. It appears around the league that anyone in the top 10-12 guys get franchise QB money, especially when they are young

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Which QB is actually worth big money besides Mahomes? The only other active QBs with a Super Bowl ring are Stafford, Wilson, Rodgers and Flacco. And hyped college QBs rarely pan out (see Trevor Lawrence). So who would you actually sell the farm for, and why?