CFZ Why no one can accurately predict what’s ahead

[Bobhaze]

Reminder: if someone disagrees with you over and over, just agree to disagree. It’s an opinion forum. Making your points over and over to “own someone” in an argument is a beat down for everyone. Sometimes fellow fans don’t see it the same way. That’s ok. Let it go.

 

[CouchCoach]

The NFL is not only about what team another plays but when they play them. Was CIN playing back then as they are now? They are repeating 2021 in the latter part of this season.

The injuries are the great equalizer. And it can take just one to start the shift. The starting LT goes down and the dominoes begin to fall and the game plan and play calling go sideways. And the CB’s going down has led to a lot of these crazy comebacks.

Coaching is the critical factor with the HC reading his team the best at an advantage. They are not going to get every starter up for 17 games.

I look for this to worsen as they move to an 18th game because to the players more games means more time to make up lost ground and even more early season games looking like preseason games.

The other thing that needs to change when they go to 17 is dump TNF and just go with Sun and Mon because that is not enough time to recover with the beating some of these players take. But they won’t even consider this because of the money.

I am a conflicted fan. I love football but I absolutely hate the NFL.

 

[Diehardblues]

On Any Given Sunday still prevails in the NFL but we can predict with some predictability the better teams with a fairly strong winning percentage throughout the season.

We just can’t predict with covering the spread with any regularity much more than 60% by even some of the greatest handicappers.

 

[tyke1doe]

If anyone knew for certain, he/she would be a rich person.
I know I would. I'm not into gambling, but if I could tell you for certain who would win a game, I'd bet the house and everything I got on the outcome.
Hey, it's not gambling if it's a sure bet.

 

[Diehardblues]

The NFL is not only about what team another plays but when they play them. Was CIN playing back then as they are now? They are repeating 2021 in the latter part of this season.

The injuries are the great equalizer. And it can take just one to start the shift. The starting LT goes down and the dominoes begin to fall and the game plan and play calling go sideways. And the CB’s going down has led to a lot of these crazy comebacks.

Coaching is the critical factor with the HC reading his team the best at an advantage. They are not going to get every starter up for 17 games.

I look for this to worsen as they move to an 18th game because to the players more games means more time to make up lost ground and even more early season games looking like preseason games.

The other thing that needs to change when they go to 17 is dump TNF and just go with Sun and Mon because that is not enough time to recover with the beating some of these players take. But they won’t even consider this because of the money.

I am a conflicted fan. I love football but I absolutely hate the NFL.

Yea but we can say that about most business we patronage . Even the country we love to live in. We don’t always agree with how the leaders or owners conduct themselves by we often still love the product.

That’s all part of it. Just like with the Cowboys. We hate how our owner operates but here we are. We are all conflicted but what are you going to do. It is what it is.

I think we simply know too much this era. And instant info isnt always a healthy situation. And if we really knew everything about everybody we wouldn’t like too many people or entities.

And if football persist just want to watch without all of the glamour and glitter there’s amateur football. And why fans like you and I have gravitated more to College Football. We aren’t Fantasy Fans which this generation is consumed with.

 

[Diehardblues]

If anyone knew for certain, he/she would be a rich person.
I know I would. I'm not into gambling, but if I could tell you for certain who would win a game, I'd bet the house and everything I got on the outcome.
Hey, it's not gambling if it's a sure bet.

The problem with predicting NFL games is the point spread . But if we all took the top 5-10 teams we could clean up picking them to win without a spread .

 

[Jipper]

My worry is that out of the last 12 quarters of football we have 2 good quarters and a 3 min drive.

We need to play more complete games

 

[Diehardblues]

What jumps out to me is any NFL team can win on any given Sunday. Who could have predicted the niners 7th round rookie QB Brock Purdy would be 16-21-185, 2 TDs and no picks against Tampa? I’m not surprised the niners won but by 35-7 with the last player drafted last year?

So should we now assume that Brock Purdy is a stud and will not throw any picks and will lead the niners to glory each week?

No of course not. But that’s what we do in the prediction game. We take one week’s results and then assume it predicts the future. It does not. And the evidence is huge.

I think most who follow closely felt the 49ers would beat Tampa. Not predicting the score, spread , etc is entirely a different subject.

We could take the top teams n the league and predict with some consistency they’d win 10-12 games or more this year. Just can’t predict which ones or the score or spread.

And why spreads are inserted in wagering. Or I could just get Buffalo and Kansas City every week this year and end up being right about 75%- 80% of the time winning loads of cash.

But we can pick these better teams with more regularity.

 

[Diehardblues]

I wouldn’t say no one can predict. Some of these games are very predictable who will win with a very high percentage. The point spread is the X-factor.

The more evenly matched games are tougher to predict but being an old gambler years ago and in tune with some top notch handicappers back in the day, I do believe some fans and analysts do have a better sense.

Some can even predict these closely pitted games against the spread . Our playoff game last year is a great example against SF. Analyst and handicappers were spot on. It unfolded much as predicted.

 

[Bobhaze]

The NFL is not only about what team another plays but when they play them. Was CIN playing back then as they are now? They are repeating 2021 in the latter part of this season.

The injuries are the great equalizer. And it can take just one to start the shift. The starting LT goes down and the dominoes begin to fall and the game plan and play calling go sideways. And the CB’s going down has led to a lot of these crazy comebacks.

Coaching is the critical factor with the HC reading his team the best at an advantage. They are not going to get every starter up for 17 games.

I look for this to worsen as they move to an 18th game because to the players more games means more time to make up lost ground and even more early season games looking like preseason games.

The other thing that needs to change when they go to 17 is dump TNF and just go with Sun and Mon because that is not enough time to recover with the beating some of these players take. But they won’t even consider this because of the money.

I am a conflicted fan. I love football but I absolutely hate the NFL.

Coach I’m with you 100% on Thurs night football. The Cowboys are playing 3 games in 12 days because that stupid Thurs night game coming up. It’s a greed grab. And if the owners were serious about player safety, the only Thurs football would be on Thanksgiving.

Not to mention how bad the matchups have been on Thursday games…

My worry is that out of the last 12 quarters of football we have 2 good quarters and a 3 min drive.

We need to play more complete games

Agree 100%. Consistency- especially toward the end of the season- is the habit of teams ready to win in the playoffs.