CFZ Why the Cowboys defense could have less turnovers in 2024 and be better

[Bobhaze]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

 

[Kevinicus]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

What % of the time did the team have the lead compared to being behind or tied?

 

[Yobwocs]

And hopefully him having faced LeFleur 8 times means he can figure him out better than McCarthy and Quinn could. Or couldn't I should say.

 

[Bobhaze]

What % of the time did the team have the lead compared to being behind or tied?

That would take more time than I have.

 

[JoeKing]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

What you're saying is, in my opinion, theoretical. Let's wait and see. We still have our ball-hawk secondary and we should still have a pass rush that pressures the QB to cough up the ball. I believe the turnovers generated by Zim's defense will still be in the top 5.

 

[Blackrain]

Yep that defense was a whole lot of fun to watch when we were ahead they just unleashed that pass rush and got things to snowball on weak teams.

Conversely when they got punched in the mouth early by a team that could run the ball it was about as much fun as watching the oil light come on in the truck.

You just knew disaster was coming and there was no way to stop it.
That feast or famine style of defense doesn't survive well in the playoffs I think zimmers defense although probably a little less spectacular at times will be a more constant unit that can be counted on more when things get tough

 

[Coogiguy03]

I already said I can see us having less INT's for one, but if that could lead to other turnovers like FF, or better run D, i'm fine with that

 

[doomsday9084]

The summary of last year's defense was that when it was good, it was really good. When it was bad, it was really bad.

Overall, it was good far more often than bad but it really let the team down in critical games. The Arizona, SF, Buffalo and GB games were **** shows. The Seattle game was too but the O carried the team.

If the team was just average on defense all year but then played fine in those games, the record might have been actually better.

 

[Reality]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

I think the real problem for the Cowboys defense under Quinn was if they could not get turnovers, the defense was below average overall due to what you pointed out in that they could not stop the run.

There have been many aggressive defenses over the years by different teams so offensive schemes and game plans have been devised to counter them.

The most effective way to defend against an aggressive defense is to get the ball out quick, especially early in the game.

This causes the defense to wear themselves out trying to get to the quarterback faster early in the game and that allows the other team's offense, especially the quarterback, to take a little longer to look for bigger plays as the game goes on.

You are absolutely right about the effectiveness of Quinn's defense when having a lead versus being behind.

The problem is that the regular season (minus the last week or two) allows teams to gamble if they fall in the hole because a loss won't end their season.

However, when the playoffs start, games matter and competition is much better so relying on the other team to make mistakes in order to win eventually costs you a game and the season.

 

[shabazz]

Very interesting Stat but what I want to see most is , " can they stop the run"?

Got to stop the run to set up 3rd and long which produces the best scenario for turnovers

 

[Hawkeye0202]

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

I am not sure many fans remember but during his initial presser ( as Cowboys HC) MM talked about his coaching philosophy. As he put it, he wanted his offense to score early and often and turn the game over to his DLine to create turnovers. Notice there is some correlation between this in your post. If we score early and establish a lead, turnovers follow and we are fine but if we don't score early and/or fall behind, we struggle.

 

[Teague31]

Won’t be hard to be better. They gave up like 33 a game to any team with a pulse

 

[kskboys]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

Very well done.

While TO's are definitely important to a D, the importance pales in comparison to being able to stop the other team, especially on 3rd down.

 

[kskboys]

What you're saying is, in my opinion, theoretical. Let's wait and see. We still have our ball-hawk secondary and we should still have a pass rush that pressures the QB to cough up the ball. I believe the turnovers generated by Zim's defense will still be in the top 5.

No, not at all.

We're discussing different types of D.

 

[blueblood70]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

to be honest i didn't read all of that but from the subject heading and skimming over it i agree... I feel like if the defense plays more under control studies and executes their assignments correctly and look to stop the run and get back to the basics..

I think they could be a better defense, I think always thinking about the big play playing what I call hero ball is not the way you build a championship defense, everyone needs to stay in their lanes and do their jobs and not worry about the big play those happen when you do your job correctly and hopefully Mike Zimmer reestablishes the importance of base defense....

 

[Streifenkarl]

At first I liked what DQ tried to do here. He didn't have the material to be big in the trenches so he tried to be agile and fast towards the goalie, uhm Quarterback. In the end that backfired because teams had figured us out.

So we have to go back to the roots and focus on the run stop. Micah can still cause chaos in the opponent's backfield. But stopping the run is key.

So, I agree with Bob, we could be better. More conservative and "boring", but better in the end. Looking forward to see how that turns out late in the season.

 

[fivetwos]

Makes full sense to me.

All the turnovers seemed to do was turn a win over an inferior team into a blowout and made too many people….fans, front office, media, even the players….think the team was better than it actually was.

Meanwhile when they couldn’t get out ahead of a team they struggled.

I think MM has done well given the circumstances (Jerry and his act), but the last two choices at DC are probably why he could boost them above Garrett peak level (along with getting lucky with Lamb and Parsons) but routinely fails in the playoffs vs the better staffs/schemes.

 

[Creeper]

Of course turnovers are important, but more important is the ability to stop drives when the team needs to the ball back.

 

[kskboys]

Makes full sense to me.

All the turnovers seemed to do was turn a win over an inferior team into a blowout and made too many people….fans, front office, media, even the players….think the team was better than it actually was.

Meanwhile when they couldn’t get out ahead of a team they struggled.

I think MM has done well given the circumstances (Jerry and his act), but the last two choices at DC are probably why he could boost them above Garrett peak level (along with getting lucky with Lamb and Parsons) but routinely fails in the playoffs vs the better staffs/schemes.

For some very odd reasons, people have begun to grossly overrate TO's. It's weird, because if you can't stop the other team, those TO's won't matter. Don't get me wrong, TO's are important, no doubt. But, they are quite simply not the first thing on the list you need your D to do. Prolly like 4th or 5th on the list.

1. Control the LOS. Everything falls apart if you can't do this.

Every other facet of a D pales in comparison. The 07 Giants won the super bowl w/ FA's off the street at DB. And they're not the only ones. Everything on D hinges on the DLine, every tiny particle of your D. Disrupt the opposing O, that is the only way to beat playoff QBs. Cincy made a super bowl due to this one strategy. And they signed FA's, to do it. Reader, Ogunjobi, Hendrickson, all signed in FA, and it put them in the super bowl. Why?

Reader: Plugs the middle and collapses the pocket.
Ogunjobi: Penetrates the pocket, doing what QB's hate the most: Inside pressure. You absolutely cannot understate how important this is. The absolute most important aspect of any D, inside pressure/pocket disruption.
Hendrickson: Outside pass rush, but also big enough to affect the run game at 270.

This trio is what put Cincy in the super bowl. They couldn't afford to keep everyone so the let Ogunjobi walk, and haven't been the same since.

 

[kskboys]

26 TO's in 17 games. That is 1.5 TO's per game. Sooooooooooooooo, an NFL game averages about 153 plays. If a D plays 75 plays then, the TO only affects 2 of those plays. How about the other 73 plays?

The DLine affects all 75 plays. Every one of them. Which is why a D built on getting TO's fails in the playoffs.