CFZ Why the Cowboys defense could have less turnovers in 2024 and be better

[TasteMyScythe]

Turnovers are great and exciting, but let's remember there's a differential. Getting 3 and out's and getting off the field in a timely matter is the true parameter of having a great defense. It's more demoralizing to an offense when they can't consistently move the ball. Playing keep away and winning the time of possession is what I want to see...sure, the TO's will be down, but it also means less opportunities for the other team. That's better than a turnover.

 

[kskboys]

Turnovers are great and exciting, but let's remember there's a differential. Getting 3 and out's and getting off the field in a timely matter is the true parameter of having a great defense. It's more demoralizing to an offense when they can't consistently move the ball. Playing keep away and winning the time of possession is what I want to see...sure, the TO's will be down, but it also means less opportunities for the other team. That's better than a turnover.

It is, and by a wide margin.

However, fans want INT's and sacks, and Jerry runs this org as a fan would. That's why we seldom have a good DLine and are mostly spending a lot of high picks on CB's and edge rushers. Jerry simply does not comprehend that the DLine makes the D go. The DLine affects every facet of your D.

 

[blueblood70]

Of course turnovers are important, but more important is the ability to stop drives when the team needs to the ball back.

Well yes of course that's the problem with this team they build all these turnovers early in games are against weaker opponents or when things are snow balling out of control with the lead... That was a built in problem with Dan Quinn's defense literally it was feast or famine they did not step up in the big games when it mattered and even in a win like against Seattle it almost took perfect offense to win those games...

they got the lead in Miami they couldn't hold it for 4 minutes literally the team fell apart more so on defense against the better teams last year look at every single loss you got to start with the defense it was only stingy when it can somehow build a lead or it was against weaker opponents,

they couldn't stop the run they couldn't be physical enough when it mattered.. So a lot of those turnovers and sacks I call hero ball were being built up against teams we probably could have beat by a lower score, but we were going to win anyway...

it was the other games we needed the defense to step up and Quinn's defense just always seemed to blow it that is his MO go check it out his whole career when he was with ATL the watermelon kick against us ,The Super bowl complete meltdown, two years ago the games in Jacksonville and Green Bay where we had leads in the fourth quarter big ones and lost it in overtime and almost every loss last year, this defense just wasn't physical enough and they didn't do this when it mattered enough....

 

[fivetwos]

For some very odd reasons, people have begun to grossly overrate TO's. It's weird, because if you can't stop the other team, those TO's won't matter. Don't get me wrong, TO's are important, no doubt. But, they are quite simply not the first thing on the list you need your D to do. Prolly like 4th or 5th on the list.

1. Control the LOS. Everything falls apart if you can't do this.

Every other facet of a D pales in comparison. The 07 Giants won the super bowl w/ FA's off the street at DB. And they're not the only ones. Everything on D hinges on the DLine, every tiny particle of your D. Disrupt the opposing O, that is the only way to beat playoff QBs. Cincy made a super bowl due to this one strategy. And they signed FA's, to do it. Reader, Ogunjobi, Hendrickson, all signed in FA, and it put them in the super bowl. Why?

Reader: Plugs the middle and collapses the pocket.
Ogunjobi: Penetrates the pocket, doing what QB's hate the most: Inside pressure. You absolutely cannot understate how important this is. The absolute most important aspect of any D, inside pressure/pocket disruption.
Hendrickson: Outside pass rush, but also big enough to affect the run game at 270.

This trio is what put Cincy in the super bowl. They couldn't afford to keep everyone so the let Ogunjobi walk, and haven't been the same since.

Likely because we went for decades without being able to buy consistent turnovers.

Also the guy who scores on a pick six looks a lot more heroic than the guy in the trenches that caused the QB to make that mistake in the first place. Whose jersey is the typical fan more likely to buy, and which appeals to the Dallas front office?

Hence, a big extension for Diggs and no money at all for DT.

 

[Diehardblues]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

Great info. Took some time to compile.

I’d bet most interceptions and turnovers are when a team is behind trying to force the issue to catch up. And because they have to pass more.

It only makes sense our turnovers we forced came while we are ahead. And ahead by 2 scores maximizes opponents need to risk more.

 

[Diehardblues]

26 TO's in 17 games. That is 1.5 TO's per game. Sooooooooooooooo, an NFL game averages about 153 plays. If a D plays 75 plays then, the TO only affects 2 of those plays. How about the other 73 plays?

The DLine affects all 75 plays. Every one of them. Which is why a D built on getting TO's fails in the playoffs.

Right. I’m thinking turnovers are a more critical issue for the offense than defense.

 

[Diehardblues]

Turnover differential continues to be a major stat in determining outcomes. The higher positive number you have the more likely of a better record.

And turnovers are more of an offensive killer than a telling stat defensively IMO.

 

[Bobhaze]

I think the real problem for the Cowboys defense under Quinn was if they could not get turnovers, the defense was below average overall due to what you pointed out in that they could not stop the run.

There have been many aggressive defenses over the years by different teams so offensive schemes and game plans have been devised to counter them.

The most effective way to defend against an aggressive defense is to get the ball out quick, especially early in the game.

This causes the defense to wear themselves out trying to get to the quarterback faster early in the game and that allows the other team's offense, especially the quarterback, to take a little longer to look for bigger plays as the game goes on.

You are absolutely right about the effectiveness of Quinn's defense when having a lead versus being behind.

The problem is that the regular season (minus the last week or two) allows teams to gamble if they fall in the hole because a loss won't end their season.

However, when the playoffs start, games matter and competition is much better so relying on the other team to make mistakes in order to win eventually costs you a game and the season.

Great point about the playoffs.

Teams that can both run the ball AND stop the run are built better for the playoffs. If your pass rush is the best part of your defense, you must always play ahead, which is almost impossible against really good teams. If you get punched first and your offense slows, you’re in trouble. The GB game last year clearly exposed that problem for this team.

Last year’s chiefs team exemplified having a defense that can keep you in the game long enough for the offense to come alive. Mahomes is an absolute monster talent of course, but any9ne paying attention to playoffs last year knows the chiefs don’t even make the SB without that defense.

 

[quickccc]

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

Zimm will not have a vet Jon Hankins to immediately help with the run defense ...
and who currently is dom as out best 1 tech ... the disappointing Mazi Smith who is missed a key offseason post shoulder surgery.

- Who are the next guys up ? ..rookie 7th rd pick Justin Rogers ? ..JAG Carl Davis ? ..as usual, we'll wait until the worse happens before we go explore a trade for a vet 1 tech.

- Quinn sought to get " ball hawks" for this defense - DBs that get INTs, both CBs and safeties,.. that does not seem to be lessen under Zimm. but i do get the vibe that Zimm's scheme will be more conservative and cautious to not jump routes but either knock ball down or be in front of the WR to make the key tackle as opposed to letting that WR get behind the coverages.

- I do want to see this disguised coverage scheme by Zimm. and interested if we can get more INTs and turnovers from our new LB unit ala Overshown, Marist and Hendricks ...as well as will be playing with two LBs instead of three in Zimm's scheme ?
if 3 LBs .. i see it as Hendricks, Marist and Overshown

- i think the questionable instincts Damon Clark becomes more of a depth backup guy than starter.

 

[quickccc]

Great point about the playoffs.

Teams that can both run the ball AND stop the run are built better for the playoffs. If your pass rush is the best part of your defense, you must always play ahead, which is almost impossible against really good teams. If you get punched first and your offense slows, you’re in trouble. The GB game last year clearly exposed that problem for this team.

Last year’s chiefs team exemplified having a defense that can keep you in the game long enough for the offense to come alive. Mahomes is an absolute monster talent of course, but any9ne paying attention to playoffs last year knows the chiefs don’t even make the SB without that defense.

Who does make the SB without Defense ? .. .Who does not win the SB without Defense ? .....
that's always been the tale of the tape come critical playoff time .

 

[Bobhaze]

Who does make the SB without Defense ? .. .Who does not win the SB without Defense ? .....
that's always been the tale of the tape come critical playoff time .

So True. And it’s a much bigger reason this team hasn’t sniffed a SB in three decades. Yes Dak has not played well when the lights were brightest. Dak has stunk it up for sure in big games but it mystifies me that so many fans put it all on the QB. Any playoff loss is always the QB.

And I’m not defending Dak. He deserves a ton of criticism. But so does the Cowboys defense. Multiple things can be true. I always think of Tom Brady’s bad performance in the 2020 NFC championship game when he threw 3 INTs. The Tampa defense is what won that game. Even GOATs like Brady and Mahomes have bad games or bad halves. Having a great defense is so important to playoff success.

 

[Diehardblues]

So True. And it’s a much bigger reason this team hasn’t sniffed a SB in three decades. Yes Dak has not played well when the lights were brightest. Dak has stunk it up for sure in big games but it mystifies me that so many fans put it all on the QB. Any playoff loss is always the QB.

And I’m not defending Dak. He deserves a ton of criticism. But so does the Cowboys defense. Multiple things can be true. I always think of Tom Brady’s bad performance in the 2020 NFC championship game when he threw 3 INTs. The Tampa defense is what won that game. Even GOATs like Brady and Mahomes have bad games or bad halves. Having a great defense is so important to playoff success.

Yep, and generally great defenses beat great offenses.

 

[KJJ]

If we force less turnovers we might struggle to get offenses off the field. Our best games last season were when we forced a lot of turnovers. The struggles we had were in games where we didn’t create any turnovers. I have a lot of concerns about the defense, especially having to go with Mazi upfront.

 

[Bobhaze]

If we force less turnovers we might struggle to get offenses off the field. Our best games last season were when we forced a lot of turnovers.

True. The problem was, all but 5 of those turnovers last year happened while we were ahead.

 

[blueblood70]

If we force less turnovers we might struggle to get offenses off the field. Our best games last season were when we forced a lot of turnovers. The struggles we had were in games where we didn’t create any turnovers.

And it's the very reason Dan Quinn being missing is a great step towards better defense... Don't live in the past we'll have several different players a different defensive scheme and a different voice absolutely on the sideline with his team fighting on game day not telling them that don't worry about anything but sacks and interceptions make sure you go out there and win that hero ball... Feast or famine defense is just not going to win you big games it never has for Dan Quinn and as much as I appreciate the fun of having those turnovers we need turnovers yes but turnovers should not be the focus you should be learning the defense inside now you know your assignment you study you don't do too much you do what you're supposed to do on game day and don't worry about your next contract and what you need 19 sacks so you can get that$30 million bag...

Seriously sometimes that's what happens with players they're looking towards that big payday, and they know how do you do that, big stats. If you look at some of these the way Trayvon diggs and Bland played they were always thinking about jumping a route and getting a pick six or an interception versus having a much more steady game and just cover your guy and don't let him catch the ball or iof they do tackle immediately.

sometimes that high risk ball is what got us beat go back to the Green Bay game and I know Trayvon diggs wasn't there dudes were not in position they were giving up big plays because they forgot how to cover and play basic football because all they were thinking about is that one big moment.. Hey maybe I'm wrong but that's what I'm saying and the bigger games against the better teams these guys are not getting these same stat sheet filling type plays.

. This team over the last three years with Dan Quinn while it was nice and fun for fans to watch all those turnovers it was mostly against teams we didn't really need them to win literally think about it go back and we may have only won the game by 10 instead of 20 but we would have won the game anyway those were built up in blowouts mostly or against weaker teams the defense didn't step up and get them turnovers into big games I remember Trayvon diggs didn't break up that big old pass against kittles he dropped an interception I mean where all these pick sixes in the playoffs where all these in the big games against the big boys they weren't there at all show me the game against the top team in which we rolled over him with a lot of turnovers big sacks at key moments??

That's simply the nature of that type of defense is built like NASCAR bye when they bring that NASCAR onto the street and it can't perform it has nowhere to go...

 

[CCBoy]

I think the real problem for the Cowboys defense under Quinn was if they could not get turnovers, the defense was below average overall due to what you pointed out in that they could not stop the run.

There have been many aggressive defenses over the years by different teams so offensive schemes and game plans have been devised to counter them.

The most effective way to defend against an aggressive defense is to get the ball out quick, especially early in the game.

This causes the defense to wear themselves out trying to get to the quarterback faster early in the game and that allows the other team's offense, especially the quarterback, to take a little longer to look for bigger plays as the game goes on.

You are absolutely right about the effectiveness of Quinn's defense when having a lead versus being behind.

The problem is that the regular season (minus the last week or two) allows teams to gamble if they fall in the hole because a loss won't end their season.

However, when the playoffs start, games matter and competition is much better so relying on the other team to make mistakes in order to win eventually costs you a game and the season.

Kansas City probably had the NFL's best defense last season and looks to have even improved on it.

There is where things rest here and now. We shall see how the Dallas unit shoulders challenge, from the start. No excuses accepted here.

No slack is already the task master...not excuses.

 

[kskboys]

Right. I’m thinking turnovers are a more critical issue for the offense than defense.

Absolutely, and excellent point.

 

[kskboys]

Kansas City probably had the NFL's best defense last season and looks to have even improved on it.

There is where things rest here and now. We shall see how the Dallas unit shoulders challenge, from the start. No excuses accepted here.

No slack is already the task master...not excuses.

KC held every single opponent last year under 30 pts.

Here's a relevant fact: KC allowed 15.8 PPG in the playoffs vs teams that averaged 28.3 in the regular season.

KC went to more of a ball control O w/ a defensive team, trading away Tyreek, and BLAM: Back to back super bowls.

 

[Bobhaze]

KC held every single opponent last year under 30 pts.

Here's a relevant fact: KC allowed 15.8 PPG in the playoffs vs teams that averaged 28.3 in the regular season.

KC went to more of a ball control O w/ a defensive team, trading away Tyreek, and BLAM: Back to back super bowls.

And Kevin we will be hammered with comments that it’s always all the QB. It’s all Mahomes or Brady. They think if Tom Brady is taking snaps it won’t matter who the other 21 starters are or how well they all play together.

Having a great QB is a huge advantage. But guys like Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, and even Dan Fouts- all HOFers or future HOFer - will say it takes a lot more than just a great QB. In fact, those 3 QBs have 1 SB ring between them. Why? Not enough defense.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Dallas scored too many points under Moore, and got too many turnovers under Quinn.