CFZ Why the Cowboys defense could have less turnovers in 2024 and be better

[Cowboys5217]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

This is what is called "copium", and it never works out.

Zimmer is a dinosaur who has never produced a championship winning team as DC or HC. He's had long enough, and was out of the league because everybody not named Jerry Jones knows he's done.

Trying to tell yourself that the guy who produced the worst rushing defense in Cowboys history is suddenly going to help you get better over 20 years later is delusional at best.

And no, less turnovers will NEVER give you a better defense. That is just the recycled b.s. about Terrence Newmann being twisted into a "shut down cornerback" when he was a scrub who never created turnovers, and as a result our defense stunk.

Our defense will be clearly worse this year as our run stopping will also get even worse.

 

[Captain43Crash]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

We still need help at DT to stop the run. I have very little confidence Mazi will step up. We need to trade for a DT!

 

[Captain43Crash]

Great point about the playoffs.

Teams that can both run the ball AND stop the run are built better for the playoffs. If your pass rush is the best part of your defense, you must always play ahead, which is almost impossible against really good teams. If you get punched first and your offense slows, you’re in trouble. The GB game last year clearly exposed that problem for this team.

Last year’s chiefs team exemplified having a defense that can keep you in the game long enough for the offense to come alive. Mahomes is an absolute monster talent of course, but any9ne paying attention to playoffs last year knows the chiefs don’t even make the SB without that defense.

KC had the best DC, the best defense, and the best QB. Hard to beat those triplets.

 

[kskboys]

And Kevin we will be hammered with comments that it’s always all the QB. It’s all Mahomes or Brady. They think if Tom Brady is taking snaps it won’t matter who the other 21 starters are or how well they all play together.

Having a great QB is a huge advantage. But guys like Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, and even Dan Fouts- all HOFers or future HOFer - will say it takes a lot more than just a great QB. In fact, those 3 QBs have 1 SB ring between them. Why? Not enough defense.

What is completely amazing is that invariably the super bowl participants both have great DLines, and a NT. Not sure I can think of a team that made a super bowl that didn't have a good NT. Belly usually had a couple.

 

[kskboys]

This is what is called "copium", and it never works out.

Zimmer is a dinosaur who has never produced a championship winning team as DC or HC. He's had long enough, and was out of the league because everybody not named Jerry Jones knows he's done.

Trying to tell yourself that the guy who produced the worst rushing defense in Cowboys history is suddenly going to help you get better over 20 years later is delusional at best.

And no, less turnovers will NEVER give you a better defense. That is just the recycled b.s. about Terrence Newmann being twisted into a "shut down cornerback" when he was a scrub who never created turnovers, and as a result our defense stunk.

Our defense will be clearly worse this year as our run stopping will also get even worse.

Took a year at random for the Vikings. In 2018, the Vikings D was 4th.

Fewer TO's can easily mean a better D. There have been several D's set up just to get TO's, and the only D run that way that I can think of to win a super bowl was the Saints. Mostly, those high TO D's get beaten in the playoffs by teams that are disciplined and don't turn the ball over.

Same thing w/ those high octane O's that score often and quickly, they mostly lose to ball control teams come playoff time.

 

[Bobhaze]

KC had the best DC, the best defense, and the best QB. Hard to beat those triplets.

This! ^^^^^^ Triplets to win: QB, Defense, Coaching!

 

[Bobhaze]

This is what is called "copium", and it never works out.

Zimmer is a dinosaur who has never produced a championship winning team as DC or HC. He's had long enough, and was out of the league because everybody not named Jerry Jones knows he's done.

Trying to tell yourself that the guy who produced the worst rushing defense in Cowboys history is suddenly going to help you get better over 20 years later is delusional at best.

And no, less turnovers will NEVER give you a better defense. That is just the recycled b.s. about Terrence Newmann being twisted into a "shut down cornerback" when he was a scrub who never created turnovers, and as a result our defense stunk.

Our defense will be clearly worse this year as our run stopping will also get even worse.

That may be true. This defense can certainly be worse. But my point in the OP was that even though getting TOs are great, if you’re mostly only getting them when your team is ahead, what happens when you’re behind? Can you stop their running game?

The teams that dominated us last year in 4 of our 6 losses: Ariz, SF, Buffalo and GB - they all scored first against us and our defense could never stop any of those teams. We trailed the entire game in all four of those losses.

In other words if we got behind early as we did in those 4 games I mentioned above, our defense was unable to get stops or TOs when we needed them most. If your defense is only good when you’re ahead it’s not a good defense.

 

[ArtClink]

The last three seasons with Dan Quinn in charge of the defense, the Cowboys always finished at the top of the entire NFL in creating turnovers. In 2021, the Cowboys led the league in forced turnovers with 34, and the 2022 season saw the defense again finish first with 33.

In the 2023 season, although not finishing first, the Cowboys finished tied for 4th in number of defensive turnovers forced with 26. On top of all that, Deron Bland set a new NFL record last year for pick 6 interceptions in a season with 5.

An interesting aspect of looking at defensive turnovers is not only the number of TOs, but also WHEN they happened. The reason that is relevant is if all your TOs happen when your team is ahead, it has less impact than when your D gets a TO when the team is behind. Which then led me to look at when our D forced its turnovers last year.

Based on some research, here’s what I found out about our 26 forced TOs last year:

• 21 of our 26 forced turnovers happened last year when we were ahead.
• Only 5 of our TOs last year occurred while the team was behind or tied.
• All of 5 Deron Bland’s pick 6 TDs happened when the Cowboys were ahead. Four of them happened when we were ahead by two or more scores.

Why does this matter?

Because Quinn’s defense flourished when the pass rush could be unleashed with a two score lead. Once the Cowboys were comfortably ahead, the pass rush of Parsons made the ball-hawking skills of Bland front and center.

But here was the problem: If the opponent got up on us early in the game - like Arizona, Buffalo, and Green Bay, our defense had to defend the run (a big weakness with smaller LBs and a not-so dominant DL) and they all controlled the LOS almost eliminating the pass rush as a defensive weapon. And when is the best time to get a TO? When you’re behind. We only had 5 last year when we trailed.

The possible good news is while Mike Zimmer’s defensive style is less aggressive than Quinn’s, It is better suited to stop the run and to keep everything in front of you. Which may mean less turnovers but maybe it also means we can stop the run when we need to get a stop.

I always liked Zimmer and hopefully he can build a defense that can stop the run.

 

[Sarge]

It’s simple. Playoff success hinges on the ability to stop the run, always has, always will. We have a flashy defense, but we don’t have a playoff ready one.

 

[kskboys]

That may be true. This defense can certainly be worse. But my point in the OP was that even though getting TOs are great, if you’re mostly only getting them when your team is ahead, what happens when you’re behind? Can you stop their running game?

The teams that dominated us last year in 4 of our 6 losses: Ariz, SF, Buffalo and GB - they all scored first against us and our defense could never stop any of those teams. We trailed the entire game in all four of those losses.

In other words if we got behind early as we did in those 4 games I mentioned above, our defense was unable to get stops or TOs when we needed them most. If your defense is only good when you’re ahead it’s not a good defense.

The high TO type D's essentially only work against lesser teams. It is simply unwise to base your D on this facet, the Saints notwithstanding.

 

[kskboys]

It’s simple. Playoff success hinges on the ability to stop the run, always has, always will. We have a flashy defense, but we don’t have a playoff ready one.

Well said. Both flashy D's and flashy O's generally get beat come playoff time.

 

[Motorola]

KC had the best DC, the best defense, and the best QB. Hard to beat those triplets.

You left out the Chiefs also having the best head coach.
KC had a supreme quartet.

 

[Bobhaze]

It’s simple. Playoff success hinges on the ability to stop the run, always has, always will. We have a flashy defense, but we don’t have a playoff ready one.

So true. And the reason for that in most cases is in the playoffs obviously you are playing the best teams who can and will get ahead at some point. Being able to play great defense when you’re behind on the scoreboard is the hardest challenge.

The Chiefs exemplified this in the last SB. The niners were ahead the whole first half and half-way through the second qtr, they were down two scores. Last year if the Cowboys got behind early, all but once they lost.

 

[Rockport]

We still need help at DT to stop the run. I have very little confidence Mazi will step up. We need to trade for a DT!

That and a better RB.

 

[Rockport]

The high TO type D's essentially only work against lesser teams. It is simply unwise to base your D on this facet, the Saints notwithstanding.

I’m starting to convert some of the haters to my side of the argument.