Wildcard Situation (long)

[CaptainCreed]

I know everyone is under the belief that the NFC East is terrible and the only way to make the playoffs is through the division title. I am not so sure of this yet, hear me out.

Dallas' conference record is 5-2 with W vs Rams, W vs Vikings, L vs Lions, and L vs Saints outside of our division. We cannot lose the head to head tiebreaker with the Eagles or Giants as we have already beat each of those teams once, if it ever came down to two NFC east teams for the 6 seed which yes is probably unlikely. It is very possible that the Lions and Saints win their divisions and those head to head losses do not hurt us as tiebreakers for the wildcard spots. If the Saints, unlikely not to make the playoffs at this point, or Lions are a wildcard team the head to head loss could only hurt as the difference between a 5 and 6 seed. If both are potential wildcards, we have already hurt are chances by getting in this way by blowing the Detroit game. We may want to hope the Lions fall out of contention in general...It looks like one of those wildcard spots will certainly be Saints/Panthers but unlike everyone else, I am not sold on the 49ers yet, who yes truthfully got robbed in that Saints game but still counts as a conference L. They are sitting at 6-4, one game ahead of us overall recordwise, with a 3-3 conference record, one loss worse than our 5-2 conference record. Here are wildcard contenders and their records/conference records (1st time breaker besides head to head):

Philly 6-5, 5-2
Dallas 5-5, 5-2
New York 4-6, 3-4
Detroit 6-4, 5-2
Chicago 6-4, 3-4
Green Bay 5-5, 3-4
New Orleans 8-2, 6-0
Carolina 7-3, 6-2 (plays NO twice so those games will decide division winner/5 seed)
San Fran 6-4, 3-3
Arizona 6-4, 4-4

I did not include St. Louis or Washington because their conferences records are terrible so far with only 1 win a piece and they are pretty much eliminated.

Wildcard tiebreakers by priority: head to head, conference record, common games

Dallas only has 2 conferences losses so far with 5 remaining conferences games, Oakland is the only nonconference game remaining. Yes the division games are important and it would be nice to get in the playoffs via a division title and have a home game. Those nondivisional games versus Green Bay and Chicago will be huge as well because of the possible head to head tiebreakers for wildcard spots. Who knows if Rodgers will be back or does not reinjure himself coming back too soon and whether Cutler will ever get healthy so I am not looking at those games as unwinable. Keep an eye on San Fran's hold on that 6 seed and their conference record which now only sits at 3-3. They have not been blowing many teams out with Kaepernick's underwhelming play. Niners' divisional games will be tough as there really is not a bad team in that division so I am not sure they sweep Arizona and St Louis.

Let's get in any way we can. I hope this offense wakes up and starts scaring people again down the stretch and the defense can find a way to stay healthy.

Apparently 8 days is long enough for me to get over a regular season blowout and regain hope.

Thoughts CZ?

 

[17yearsandcounting]

 

[Super_Kazuya]

Well, last year the ground floor for wild card in either conference was 10-6 which seems like a stretch for us at the moment. But you're right, for now we are definitely in it. Probably the only bright side of being beat like a drum by the AFC West is that they are all out of conference.

 

[Picksix]

Whatever works. I think the odds are still better that we win the division, but a wildcard isn't out if the question. Of course, some think we're already finished (and we may be), so who knows if it even matters?

 

[DuceizBak]

I'd rather win the division.

If we win our first match up in the play offs[if we win the division]
we go to play the seahawks.
I'd much rather play the seahawks at home than any of the other teams.
I know some seahawks fans and they always talk about how bad that the Seahawks o-line is.
I don't think we would beat the seahawks but we do not match up well against the Saints at ALL.

 

[cowboys1981]

OP,

The games between GB and Chicago are big. A win vs those two puts us in a good spot in general. Cutler's injury may sideline him even longer due to fear of some nerve damage. I would also look closely at GB's next two games vs Min n Det. Back to back losses puts them at 5-6 and a 3-6 conf record. It wouldn't surprise me if that we're to happen GB shelves AR for the season.

You never know what can happen and I look forward to Sunday!

 

[CaptainCreed]

OP,

The games between GB and Chicago are big. A win vs those two puts us in a good spot in general. Cutler's injury may sideline him even longer due to fear of some nerve damage. I would also look closely at GB's next two games vs Min n Det. Back to back losses puts them at 5-6 and a 3-6 conf record. It wouldn't surprise me if that we're to happen GB shelves AR for the season.

You never know what can happen and I look forward to Sunday!

Yeah if we win those games, which sure Chicago is arguably better and GB is dependent upon Rodgers' availability, we would be in good position to probably win the division. This wildcard all comes into play if the Eagles are for real and keep winning, though I believe their next two games will be really tough, and we are forced to look at our wildcard chances. We already have a good start on a potentially good conference record that would put us in good position for a wildcard spot if we are forced to look at it that way down the road.

 

[DallasJ7]

I know we're only one game back of the last wild-card spot, with a good conference record, but I would be stunned if we lose the NFC East, yet finish with the same record or better than the 2nd place team in the NFC West and the 2nd place team in the NFC South. I suppose it's possible if Philly goes on some super-hot run and finishes 11-5 or 10-6, but I doubt it.

Although it often doesn't go this way, I think this time there won't be any big surprises and the wildcards are 49ers and Panthers/Saints.

 

[Beast_from_East]

I know we're only one game back of the last wild-card spot, with a good conference record, but I would be stunned if we lose the NFC East, yet finish with the same record or better than the 2nd place team in the NFC West and the 2nd place team in the NFC South. I suppose it's possible if Philly goes on some super-hot run and finishes 11-5 or 10-6, but I doubt it.

Although it often doesn't go this way, I think this time there won't be any big surprises and the wildcards are 49ers and Panthers/Saints.

Unless Philly basically runs the table, it would be almost impossible for us to have a better record than those teams you mentioned and not win the East.