With new format, even 12-5 is unlikely to cut it as 1 seeds have advantage to make the Super Bowl

[KJJ]

Number one seeds have always had an advantage unless you’re the Cowboys. They’ve had 2 number one seeded teams go one and done. Home-field has never been an advantage for the Cowboys at AT&T.

 

[john van brocklin]

If Philadelphia can go from a four win team to the Super Bowl in 25 months, so can everyone else. If the Eagles had stuck with Wentz for seven years does anyone believe they’d be playing the Chiefs in the Super Bowl 12 days from now? Anyone?

Big difference:
Eagles have a great GM
We have ,well, a well meaning owner who thinks he's a GM.

 

[Jayinem]

Home:

• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Washington Commanders
• Detroit Lions
• Los Angeles Rams
• New England Patriots
• New York Jets
• Seattle Seahawks

Away:

• New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Washington Commanders
• Arizona Cardinals
• Buffalo Bills
• Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Miami Dolphins
• San Francisco 49ers

Our home schedule is not that bad (of course teams can improve or get worse by next year) Just going by this year let's say we lose on the road to 49ers, Bills and Eagles. To be a #1 seed you probably need to win every other game home and away. It's still not easy to win 6 road games or go 8-0 at home, games against Chargers, Dolphins or Giants on the road won't be easy or Eagles at home. We're going to have to improve our team. No team that just stays the same gets leaps and bounds better. Jerry likes to just depend on the draft.

 

[KingCorcoran]

Big difference:
Eagles have a great GM
We have ,well, a well meaning owner who thinks he's a GM.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a GM that can be fired if he’s consistently unsuccessful. The Dallas Cowboys don’t have that. Roseman makes poor decisions. When he does he feels compelled to undo those mistakes with all possible zeal.

 

[Jake]

The first year this is in place and look at what we have both #1 seeds in the Super Bowl.

It's the second year this (7 playoff teams) is in place and neither #1 seed made it to the Super Bowl last year.

 

[Jake]

Number one seeds have always had an advantage unless you’re the Cowboys. They’ve had 2 number one seeded teams go one and done. Home-field has never been an advantage for the Cowboys at AT&T.

One of those was in Texas Stadium, 2007 season versus the Giants.

 

[Jayinem]

It's the second year this (7 playoff teams) is in place and neither #1 seed made it to the Super Bowl last year.

Yeah someone already corrected me on that. Still while there's flukes every now and again the percentages don't lie. Tampa Bay won it as a 5 seed in 2021, before that it was the Packers in 2010 who won it as a 6 seed, Giants as a 6 seed in 08, and Pittsburgh as a #6 seed in 2005 those are the only 4 times since 2000 a team that didn't win their division won the Super Bowl, so unless you want to hope to be a team that happens 1 in 5 years you want to start by winning your division. Now that #2 seeds have to play as many games as everyone else their changes of winning diminishes. I think we'll see more years like this one with #1 vs #1 or at least one #1 makes it and very few where there's two teams like last year.

Rams spent like crazy in free agency and trades and it paid off now they've imploded, Jerry loves to just focus on the draft. Bucs had Brady and a lot of talent that year. I just don't consider us in those categories talent wise.

 

[KJJ]

One of those was in Texas Stadium, 2007 season versus the Giants.

Yep, even Texas stadium wasn’t much of an advantage after the 99 season. The Cowboys lost their very last game at Texas stadium and their very first game at AT&T.

 

[Flamma]

The first year this is in place and look at what we have both #1 seeds in the Super Bowl. When you're a #1 seed you get homefield advantage throughout, but you're also the only team with a bye and your divisional round is going to be against the worst team left out of the other 6. You can pretty much pencil them in for the Conference Championship every year barring a huge upset, and then they'll likely be favorites to win in the Conference Championship too.

Being a wild card team was already a difficult task to win it all according to history, only happened a handful of times, especially when you're not a division winner and have to go on the road 3 times. But now there's even more of a disadvantage. I think it's a 4% chance according to history and that's before the format change.

I would temper expectations going forward unless you believe we can go 14-3. Pretty sickening that we were #1 seed twice but failed to win a gam

e, but that's history.

I feel like it'd even be a little bit more fair to add an 8th team and have no byes, at least make #1` seed play as many games as everyone else. There's no such thing as byes in any sport but NFL.

Isn't this the second year with this format? Last year both first seeds lost their first game.

 

[Jayinem]

It is the 2nd year I made a mistake. But I bet at least 7 or 8 out of 10 years at least 1 #1 seed makes it. Last year was a fluke. And they were still at least division winners. These are still the numbers from a year ago, #1 now increased because both teams made it this year.

Even the 21.3% is misleading because before last year #2 had a bye now they don't.

 

[windward]

The first year this is in place and look at what we have both #1 seeds in the Super Bowl. When you're a #1 seed you get homefield advantage throughout, but you're also the only team with a bye and your divisional round is going to be against the worst team left out of the other 6. You can pretty much pencil them in for the Conference Championship every year barring a huge upset, and then they'll likely be favorites to win in the Conference Championship too.

Being a wild card team was already a difficult task to win it all according to history, only happened a handful of times, especially when you're not a division winner and have to go on the road 3 times. But now there's even more of a disadvantage. I think it's a 4% chance according to history and that's before the format change.

I would temper expectations going forward unless you believe we can go 14-3. Pretty sickening that we were #1 seed twice but failed to win a game, but that's history.

I feel like it'd even be a little bit more fair to add an 8th team and have no byes, at least make #1` seed play as many games as everyone else. There's no such thing as byes in any sport but NFL.

This is the 3rd year and the last two years was a 1 seed vs a 5 seed and a 4 seed vs a 3 seed.

 

[Jayinem]

This is the 3rd year and the last two years was a 1 seed vs a 5 seed and a 4 seed vs a 3 seed.

You're right, still doesn't mean you're in good shape as a #5 or #6 or #7 seed. 4 teams since 2000 have won the Super Bowl. You want to at least win your division and not hope to be a 1 in 5 year (on average) fluke. Before the Bucs in 2021 it was Packers in 2010.

 

[Flamma]

So half the league makes the playoffs? YUCK!

Cut it back to 6 teams and I'm all in. 4 division winners and 2 wildcards for each conference.

If they had 8 teams making the playoffs since the realignment, 2002, seven times we would have had an 8th seed team with a losing record. Most of the remainder, 8-8.

I'll be skipping that game between a 14-3 team against an 8-9 team. That's a joke. It makes a mockery of the game. Hell, why not top 3 teams in every division make it? People will like that too. Sorry, but anyone for half the league making the playoffs, have no limits.

It should go back to 6. Even 6th seed teams usually suck. Not always, but more so than don't.

 

[Flamma]

Pretty sickening that we were #1 seed twice but failed to win a game, but that's history.

We didn't play bums. We played the eventual super bowl winner, and in the other game, the freaking green bay Packers. The Eagles got a crap giants team.

 

[Beast_from_East]

We had a double-digit lead over both the Packers and Jags in the 4th quarter and lost both games.

If we would have won those games, we would have been the number one seed.

Moral of the story is dont blow games that you should win and then complain about the seeding structure.

 

[Jayinem]

We had a double-digit lead over both the Packers and Jags in the 4th quarter and lost both games.

If we would have won those games, we would have been the number one seed.

Moral of the story is dont blow games that you should win and then complain about the seeding structure.

No it's just that you're missing the point. We didn't win those games because we weren't that good. The point of this thread is that we aren't a 14-3 team going forward, not really complaining about the seeding structure. It's about are we good enough to win the Super Bowl, the answer IMO is no.

 

[john van brocklin]

We had a double-digit lead over both the Packers and Jags in the 4th quarter and lost both games.

If we would have won those games, we would have been the number one seed.

Moral of the story is dont blow games that you should win and then complain about the seeding structure.

Fact!

 

[Beast_from_East]

No it's just that you're missing the point. We didn't win those games because we weren't that good. The point of this thread is that we aren't a 14-3 team going forward, not really complaining about the seeding structure. It's about are we good enough to win the Super Bowl, the answer IMO is no.

Oh, I see your point...................yeah, unfortunately I dont think we are good enough unless we really make some moves.

 

[Pass2Run]

The first year this is in place and look at what we have both #1 seeds in the Super Bowl. When you're a #1 seed you get homefield advantage throughout, but you're also the only team with a bye and your divisional round is going to be against the worst team left out of the other 6. You can pretty much pencil them in for the Conference Championship every year barring a huge upset, and then they'll likely be favorites to win in the Conference Championship too.

Being a wild card team was already a difficult task to win it all according to history, only happened a handful of times, especially when you're not a division winner and have to go on the road 3 times. But now there's even more of a disadvantage. I think it's a 4% chance according to history and that's before the format change.

I would temper expectations going forward unless you believe we can go 14-3. Pretty sickening that we were #1 seed twice but failed to win a game, but that's history.

I feel like it'd even be a little bit more fair to add an 8th team and have no byes, at least make #1` seed play as many games as everyone else. There's no such thing as byes in any sport but NFL.

I agree with you.
Either that, or make the matchups some other way.

 

[loublue22]

if Brown catches that pass in his chest in Jax we get the 1