WWYD? Opportunity cost of RB/DE

[MichaelWinicki]

Go look at the list of top ten rushers in the NFL this year. Then look at their draft position.

Drafting a running back in the first round is foolish in today's game. So is breaking the bank for one.

Bingo.

 

[Derinyar]

Go look at the list of top ten rushers in the NFL this year. Then look at their draft position.

Drafting a running back in the first round is foolish in today's game. So is breaking the bank for one.

While your general point is right you're looking at too small of a sample. Look at who repeats in a span of 5 years and say its not reasonable to spend resources. You see a good number of highly drafted or highly paid guys in there repeatedly. The cheap guys are frequently one and done. So you either go cheap and stay on the tread mill every year hoping you find the next cheap breakout guy or you eventually spend and hope to get some consistency that way. Because the name of the game is consistency.

 

[Dave_in-NC]

If I were a GM, I would never under any circumstances spend a first round pick on a running back. For that matter, I wouldn't spend a second round pick on a running back.

Even if you were looking at Emmitt?

 

[manster4ever]

As a rule of thumb I agree that you use your Second round pick on a RB. But I felt that way about center too, and look at Fredrick. Getting a stud RB that can start day one on a 5 year rookie deal at the VERY END of RD1.... Well, it makes sense.

As a reminder, RD2+ rookies are 4 year deals.

I agree ... gimme Gordon or Coleman. I like Gurley ton too but that knee scares me

 

[Verdict]

This is an interesting question but the answer is "it depends". Personally I would want to resign Murray at a lower cap number and keep the offense intact so you can focus on the defensive side of the ball in this draft. But based on your question I would go ahead and pay Murray for two reasons:

1. You can't underestimate Murray's value in protecting Romo. If Romo gets killed because you drafted a rookie rb your season is over.

2. You aren't going to find a defensive end who is as dominant at his position as Murray is for 8 million per year because teams don't let players like him go AND if they do they will cost you double the $8 million you would pay Murray.

I think we will keep Murray for less than 8 million. My guess is about 6 million per year for what will amount to a three year deal in reality (even though the contract will be longer than that. I would pay Murray 7 million per year on what would amount to a two year deal with more risk on Murray.

I think we could potentially get a stud 1 tech at 27. We could get potential starting cb at 27. We will probably not get a first year starter at de at 27. He might get spot duty at de but anything more than that is gravy.

With all of that being said I would take the best player available at 27 regardless of position. I don't care if he is a receiver, right tackle, guard, linebacker or whatever. You can't just say I am going to draft for defense blindly because the board may not fall that way. It is better to draft 7 good starters at positions you may not need right away than draft 7 players who happen to play positions of need that are all off your team in two or three years because they can't make a roster.

I also hope we bring back Matt Johnson and his bionic hammies.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

Stud pass rusher needed, FA is the best hope given our draft position, cap space limited,,, a paltry $5mil is the estimate though redoing a couple of contracts will free some up. How can we still be cash strapped after doing virtually nothing in FA the last few years?

 

[Matts4313]

Just wrote this up for another board - thought I would post it here instead of creating a thread:

Todd Gurley
6'1
230lbs
4.5 40-yard dash

Olympic level athlete - placed 3rd in the USA trial 110 meter hurdle and ran a 10.7 100 meter dash.

Pro: Big, fast, runs with an attitude. Powerful enough to run through tacklers. Quick enough to avoid them and cut through holes. Shows great vision.

Cons: Torn ACL could limit his NFL rookie season; also battled ankle injuries. Questionable judgement as he was suspended for selling autographs.

Compares to: Most places consider him a faster Marshawn Lynch. Others think he is the best RB prospect, and most comparable, to Adrian Peterson.

Projections: Mocks have him going any where as high as mid teens all the way to the second round. The NFL has absolutely devalued RBs in recent years, though Gurley is in the mold of those who buck that trend.

Richardson @ 3
Ingram @ 28
Stewart @ 13
Matthews @12
Peterson @ 7
Lynch @ 12


CBS Big Board: #29 overall
Draftcountdown: #11 overall
Walterfootball: #7 overall
Scout inc: #27 overall
Todd McShay: #22 overall
Mel Kiper: #8 overall

 

[Oh_Canada]

If you let Murray walk and spend $$$ on fa's (Paea and Sheard please) than I trade down in the first unless someone with a first round grade falls and draft an rb fairly early. Gurley, Ajayi and Coleman would be top three targets. Murray meant a lot to the team, I think people underestimate his contributions.

 

[DeaconMoss]

Right, but which is more likely to succeed - the best RB in the draft or the 5the best DE?

Two DE's play all the snaps compared to only one running back

 

[visionary]

We dont have unlimited $$ an draft picks, so every choice you make is an opportunity cost. Which brings me to my question inspired by this article:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2015...015-when-will-top-players-go-at-each-position


You have the 27th overall pick, you desperately need a pass rusher and your stud RB is a FA. Lets assume Murray is wanting ~$8M/year. So which of these do YOU do:

Option one - sign Murray to an $8M/yr deal and use your 1st rounder on a DE? The problem here, is that will likely be the ~4th/5th DE off the board.

Option two - You use your 1st rounder on a RB (who will likely be the best RB in the draft) and use that $8m to sign 1 premier DE (JPP?) or perhaps 2 mid tier pass rushers?

Easy





Neither

 

[xwalker]

Just wrote this up for another board - thought I would post it here instead of creating a thread:

Todd Gurley
6'1
230lbs
4.5 40-yard dash

Olympic level athlete - placed 3rd in the USA trial 110 meter hurdle and ran a 10.7 100 meter dash.

Pro: Big, fast, runs with an attitude. Powerful enough to run through tacklers. Quick enough to avoid them and cut through holes. Shows great vision.

Cons: Torn ACL could limit his NFL rookie season; also battled ankle injuries. Questionable judgement as he was suspended for selling autographs.

Compares to: Most places consider him a faster Marshawn Lynch. Others think he is the best RB prospect, and most comparable, to Adrian Peterson.

Projections: Mocks have him going any where as high as mid teens all the way to the second round. The NFL has absolutely devalued RBs in recent years, though Gurley is in the mold of those who buck that trend.

Richardson @ 3
Ingram @ 28
Stewart @ 13
Matthews @12
Peterson @ 7
Lynch @ 12


CBS Big Board: #29 overall
Draftcountdown: #11 overall
Walterfootball: #7 overall
Scout inc: #27 overall
Todd McShay: #22 overall
Mel Kiper: #8 overall

It's not a great year for the Cowboys to use a 1st on a guy that might not be able to play this season. They've probably only got another year or two with Romo.

Obviously if he's really as good as AP then it's worth it, but I'm skeptical on that comparison.

 

[xwalker]

If you let Murray walk and spend $$$ on fa's (Paea and Sheard please) than I trade down in the first unless someone with a first round grade falls and draft an rb fairly early. Gurley, Ajayi and Coleman would be top three targets. Murray meant a lot to the team, I think people underestimate his contributions.

Why Paea? Have you watched him?

 

[LatinMind]

We dont have unlimited $$ an draft picks, so every choice you make is an opportunity cost. Which brings me to my question inspired by this article:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2015...015-when-will-top-players-go-at-each-position


You have the 27th overall pick, you desperately need a pass rusher and your stud RB is a FA. Lets assume Murray is wanting ~$8M/year. So which of these do YOU do:

Option one - sign Murray to an $8M/yr deal and use your 1st rounder on a DE? The problem here, is that will likely be the ~4th/5th DE off the board.

Option two - You use your 1st rounder on a RB (who will likely be the best RB in the draft) and use that $8m to sign 1 premier DE (JPP?) or perhaps 2 mid tier pass rushers?

Id use my RD1 on Odighizuwa and my RD3 on David Cobb. Filled both needs for under 3mil a yr. Next

 

[iceberg]

We dont have unlimited $$ an draft picks, so every choice you make is an opportunity cost. Which brings me to my question inspired by this article:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2015...015-when-will-top-players-go-at-each-position


You have the 27th overall pick, you desperately need a pass rusher and your stud RB is a FA. Lets assume Murray is wanting ~$8M/year. So which of these do YOU do:

Option one - sign Murray to an $8M/yr deal and use your 1st rounder on a DE? The problem here, is that will likely be the ~4th/5th DE off the board.

Option two - You use your 1st rounder on a RB (who will likely be the best RB in the draft) and use that $8m to sign 1 premier DE (JPP?) or perhaps 2 mid tier pass rushers?

neither.

I'm really bad at these games.

 

[Idgit]

I'm spending both my money and my picks on the defense.

Fill the RB in the third round or thereafter, add in inexpensive (eg, $2.5M) vet in FA who knows how to pass protect, and don't lose any sleep over it.

 

[Doomsday101]

Been over this many times. I make Murray an offer 6 mill a season keeping him well under the top 5. Picks and Mid level FA will be directed more towards defense.

 

[btcutter]

If I were a GM, I would never under any circumstances spend a first round pick on a running back. For that matter, I wouldn't spend a second round pick on a running back.

NEVER is too strong. So you would have NEVER drafted Emmitt Smith, Dorsett or Sanders?

If my board says this RB is THAT good with that type of talent I will pull the trigger on a RB. You built your draft board for a reason. Don't ignore it just because the current trend is this or that. The pendulum always swings back to the middle.

 

[Doomsday101]

NEVER is too strong. So you would have NEVER drafted Emmitt Smith, Dorsett or Sanders?

If my board says this RB is THAT good with that type of talent I will pull the trigger on a RB. You built your draft board for a reason. Don't ignore it just because the current trend is this or that. The pendulum always swings back to the middle.

I agree, when everyone was going west coast Jimmy and the Cowboys went old style and kicked their butts. You can follow trends or you can set trends. Seattle already has shown you can play old fashion football and win.

 

[Nightman]

NEVER is too strong. So you would have NEVER drafted Emmitt Smith, Dorsett or Sanders?

If my board says this RB is THAT good with that type of talent I will pull the trigger on a RB. You built your draft board for a reason. Don't ignore it just because the current trend is this or that. The pendulum always swings back to the middle.

That's how you find the best values. If EVERYONE is doing one thing, we should do the opposite. Why take the the 6th or 7th best DE in the first round when you can take the #1 RB or FS.

We paid a high price to move back up and take DLawrence and Mo Claiborne because we felt those were positions of need. Wegot steals with Fred and Martin because teams don't value C and OG as much.

 

[Oh_Canada]

Why Paea? Have you watched him?

Yes, he fits the system well as a one or three tech, plays to the whistle and is a massive upgrade over Hayden. He had 6.5 sacks last year and is an ascending player.