Yakuza Rich: Bad Coaching Causes Problems on Defense

[Yakuza Rich]

Bad Coaching Causes Problems on Defense
by Yakuza Rich
http://yakuzarich.blogspot.com/



Imagine you are a General Manager for a football team and when looking at statistics of your team’s defense under a certain defensive coordinator you see the following:

6.4 average Yards Allowed Per Pass Attempt
79.6 average QB Rating Allowed
57.3% average completion percentage allowed
14.7 average interceptions.
22.0 average passing TD’s allowed
29.9 sacks

Now if I wanted to see how these averages stack up to the 2007 season defensive rankings, I would see the following:

YPA – 8th
QB Rating Allowed – 13th
Completion % Allowed – 3rd
Interceptions – 23rd
Pass TD’s Allowed – 15th
Sacks – 25th

Obviously, you’d be pretty happy with the YPA and Completion % Allowed numbers. The QB rating allowed numbers is more or less, average. The same could be said about passing TD’s allowed. And the interceptions and sacks, the big plays of pass defense, were horrible.

But as a GM looking at a coach, you have to put this into context before you come to a final judgment.

For those who haven’t clued in yet, these numbers are the stats of the Dallas defense from 2000 – 2006 under former Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer.

I guess some people can give Zimmer praise, but I have a hard time doing that given those numbers and numerous amount of first round picks and quality free agents they gave to Zimmer over the years.

And there lays a big part of the problem with the defense. Dallas needed to draft an OLB in 2006 and took Bobby Carpenter. They couldn’t really consider cornerback Antonio Cromartie because they had a much bigger need at outside linebacker. Carpenter wound up being a bust (I think it’s safe to say he’s at least entered the “bust zone” at this point) and again, Dallas needed to draft at outside linebacker and got Anthony Spencer while neglecting the cornerback spot.

Of course it would be nice if the team could have better developed cornerbacks under the Zimmer reign. They did get Terence Newman, a 4th overall pick. But they couldn’t develop the other corners they drafted and instead had to rely on free agents like Anthony Henry and Aaron Glenn.

On the flip side, the offense has turned into one of the best offenses in the league and has done it without first round picks. They got the franchise QB without even having to draft him, they got a Pro Bowl running back in the 4th round, an All Pro Tight End in the 3rd round, and other various quality players in the latter rounds.

Dallas improved in each of these areas on pass defense, except for completion percentage allowed, this season. Considering the injuries to key starters like Terence Newman, Anthony Henry, Greg Ellis, and Jason Ferguson….it appears that at the very least that Wade Phillips is a better defensive coordinator than Mike Zimmer. If the Cowboys can keep improving, then we’ll start seeing the Cowboys being able to draft offensive players in the first round.



YAKUZA

 

[TEK2000]

Nice article Yakuza... pretty much confirms what many people have thought for a while now.

 

[1st & 10]

I'm not saying Zimmer or Phillips is better than the other, but would Zimmer's results had been any different if the offenses from 2000-05 were as good as the offenses from the last two years?

During those years, I often thought how much better our defense could have been if we had a decent offense.

 

[joseephuss]

I'm not saying Zimmer or Phillips is better than the other, but would Zimmer's results had been any different if the offenses from 2000-05 were as good as the offenses from the last two years?

During those years, I often thought how much better our defense could have been if we had a decent offense.

Good point.

There is more talent on this year's defense than on any that Zimmer coached except for his last year in Dallas, which of course was last season. Then it was the same players, but a lot of them were young. Ware, Spears, Canty and Ratilff were all in their 2nd years. This year they were in the 3rd. That makes a difference.

It isn't about just throwing a bunch of #1 picks out there. Some of the teams he coached had very little quality depth. It was not as if Ekuban was a great 1st round pick, but he was far better than his back ups. Ogbogu was a better pitch man for under Armour than he was a back up DE, for example. I would feel the same way if he were still on the team this year. Jason Hatcher, heck even Bobby Carpenter are better back ups than Eric. They may even be better than starter Marcellus Wiley. Willie Blade, Leonardo Carson and Brandon Noble were all starters at DT at different times. Give me any of the back up defensive lineman on the squad right now over those guys.

Plus Wade has had what, 30 years of experience coaching a 3-4 style defense. Zimmer had 2 years of experience coaching a 3-4, his last two in Dallas.

I've never thought Zimmer was a great DC, but he certainly was not the worse thing ever. Not even close. He was a decent DC. Slightly above average.

Plus in my estimation, it always comes down to the players. The defenders tackle and cover. In the playoff loss to the Giants, if they tackle well, Toomer doesn't score and that one play could change the entire complexion of the game. That poor tackling was independent of any scheme. Similar things could be observe in all three Giants scoring drives. Better play will make any scheme look good.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I'm not saying Zimmer or Phillips is better than the other, but would Zimmer's results had been any different if the offenses from 2000-05 were as good as the offenses from the last two years?

During those years, I often thought how much better our defense could have been if we had a decent offense.

We had a very good offense in 2006 and it was one of the defense's worst years under Zimmer.






YAKUZA

 

[THUMPER]

Zimmer's bend-but-don't-break, read-and-react, play-not-to-lose, don't-give-up-the-big-play, mentality is all smoke and mirrors because it looked real good in terms of total yardage but consistently gave up big plays at the worst possible times and put ZERO pressure on the QB. It also did not produce many turnovers or big plays. Worst of all is that it hardly ever scored.

I would love to do a study on the correlation between defensive scoring (TDs on INTs & fumble recoveries and Safeties) And SB teams. I don't have all of the stats I need to go back far enough to do a true sampling but I'm close (mostly I need the time).

Sacks are very underrated IMO when rating defenses because it immediately puts the offense in a whatever-and-long situation, limiting their options and drastically increasing the probability of a turnover. Of course stupid penalties do the same thing as we have found to our excruciating pain.

Zimmer's style fit perfectly with the old man Parcells who was more concerned with controlling the clock than scoring points. You can make the correlation of SB teams with those who had a significant advantage in time of possession but those teams also scored TDs a lot more than we did under Parcells who was quite content to settle for FGs many times and try to run out the clock shortly after halftime if he had a 10 point lead.

Zimmer's style is very misleading and people are easily sold on it because it does limit total yardage but it doesn't win games and it doesn't produce against the top teams.

Throughout the Zimmer years (both before and during the Parcells years) it was maddening to watch teams we had shut down all day move the ball and score at will late in games. To me, that is the legacy I will remember from his time here.

I also see a lot of comments about how he didn't have talent but that is a weak excuse IMO. When he did have talent he still didn't get it done. Also, there were numerous times that the players had no clue where to line up, who to cover, or what their assignments were. That is all down to coaching IMO. How many times last year were we frustrated to see Ware running out to cover a WR because no DB was assigned to him? Or how many times was Ware used in coverage instead of to rush the QB?

The other excuse I read is that it was because Parcells switched from the 4-3 to the 3-4 but those people obviously weren't paying attention to how lame our defense was in the 4-3 before Parcells got here. That was Zimmer folks.

Face it folks, Zimmer is NOT a good coach and never has been.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I've never thought Zimmer was a great DC, but he certainly was not the worse thing ever. Not even close. He was a decent DC. Slightly above average.

Well, I don't think so. I don't think it's a coincidence that Spears and Canty greatly improved in 1 year under Phillips along with Bradie James.

I think his QB rating allowed speaks pretty well. That's average and that's with a lot of talent on defense.

Plus in my estimation, it always comes down to the players. The defenders tackle and cover.

Dallas had more talent on defense than given credit for. Dat Nguyen and Dexter Coakley were pretty solid. Had Ellis (who in 1 year had his best season ever under Phillips), a young Roy Williams, and La'Roi Glover. Then later on he had Ware and Newman.

He's a mediocre coach that really hurt Dallas for years. And Dallas' numbers were worse across the board in the 4-3 under Zimmer than under the 3-4.




YAKUZA

 

[THUMPER]

Well, I don't think so. I don't think it's a coincidence that Spears and Canty greatly improved in 1 year under Phillips along with Bradie James.

I think his QB rating allowed speaks pretty well. That's average and that's with a lot of talent on defense.



Dallas had more talent on defense than given credit for. Dat Nguyen and Dexter Coakley were pretty solid. Had Ellis (who in 1 year had his best season ever under Phillips), a young Roy Williams, and La'Roi Glover. Then later on he had Ware and Newman.

He's a mediocre coach that really hurt Dallas for years. And Dallas' numbers were worse across the board in the 4-3 under Zimmer than under the 3-4.




YAKUZA

Good job as usual YR.

 

[ScipioCowboy]

I'm not saying Zimmer or Phillips is better than the other, but would Zimmer's results had been any different if the offenses from 2000-05 were as good as the offenses from the last two years?

In my opinion, the terrible offensive play helped Zimmer's defenses as much as it hindered them, from a statistical standpoint.

During the time period in question, the Cowboys were seldom able to score more than 14 points in one game without the aid of turnovers; consequently, most opponents utilized a conservative gameplan, risking little and forcing even less, knowing they needed no more than 20 points to secure a victory.

Therefore, any decent team playing Dallas would reign in its offensive playcalling because it could win the game as long as it didn't turnover the ball.

All relevant statistics would seem to corroborate my argument: Although Zimmer's defenses were generally respectable from a yardage standpoint, they were normally mediocre in scoring (with the exception of 2003).

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I would love to do a study on the correlation between defensive scoring (TDs on INTs & fumble recoveries and Safeties) And SB teams. I don't have all of the stats I need to go back far enough to do a true sampling but I'm close (mostly I need the time)..

I was watching a special by NFL Films a few years ago on interceptions. According to NFL Films, the team that scores a pick 6 winds up winning the game nearly 80% of the time. I would imagine that stuff like fumble returns for a TD probably are along the same lines. One look at the Bears in '06, they were a team that had a turnover prone QB, but they kept winning and in large part because their defense actually scored quite a few points. Thus, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a correlation between Super Bowl teams and their ability to score defensive touchdowns.

Sacks are very underrated IMO when rating defenses because it immediately puts the offense in a whatever-and-long situation, limiting their options and drastically increasing the probability of a turnover. Of course stupid penalties do the same thing as we have found to our excruciating pain.

Doing a simple correlation analysis shows how important sacks are. It has a pretty strong correlation to winning in the NFL. The Giants didn't have very good numbers as far as QB Rating Allowed, Points Allowed, and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, but they led the league in sacks and that made up for a lot.


I also found it interesting for a bend and don't break defense, Dallas gave up more passing TD's than interceptions each year under Zimmer. Under Wade Dallas tied between TD's allowed and interceptions (19).





YAKUZA

 

[joseephuss]

Well, I don't think so. I don't think it's a coincidence that Spears and Canty greatly improved in 1 year under Phillips along with Bradie James.

I think his QB rating allowed speaks pretty well. That's average and that's with a lot of talent on defense.



Dallas had more talent on defense than given credit for. Dat Nguyen and Dexter Coakley were pretty solid. Had Ellis (who in 1 year had his best season ever under Phillips), a young Roy Williams, and La'Roi Glover. Then later on he had Ware and Newman.

He's a mediocre coach that really hurt Dallas for years. And Dallas' numbers were worse across the board in the 4-3 under Zimmer than under the 3-4.




YAKUZA

I don't think it is a coincidence, either. Third year players tend to be better than 2nd year players. I think there is more growth in a player from year 2 to year 3 than there is even from year 1 to year 2. That is on both sides of the ball.

Zimmer did have talent on his squads. Just not as much talent that this year's defense has on it right now or even last years' version. Especially when it comes to depth. That can help explain why the numbers are better for his 3-4 than his 4-3 squads.

 

[1st & 10]

We had a very good offense in 2006 and it was one of the defense's worst years under Zimmer.YAKUZA

The defense was actually playing pretty well in 2006 for the first 12 games..... then came the inexplicable December meltdown that began against New Orleans. That's when most started calling for Zimmer's head.

However, would things have been different for 2000-05 if we had an offense that won top more often than not and averaged over 28 points per game?

 

[Yakuza Rich]

All relevant statistics would seem to corroborate my argument: Although Zimmer's defenses were generally respectable from a yardage standpoint, they were normally mediocre in scoring (with the exception of 2003).

The 2003 defense was great in all of the major categories.

I think one of the things I notice is that the YPA was about the same under Wade as it was under Zimmer. But the QB rating allowed was much better under Wade. The only thing that Zimmer had over Wade was completion % allowed.

All of those things sort of add up that Dallas may need to look to improve the pass coverage of their linebackers. The completion % was better under Zimmer, when he had coverage linebackers like Nguyen and Coakley, so it was probably more difficult to complete those short passes covered by those guys.




YAKUZA

 

[joseephuss]

The 2003 defense was great in all of the major categories.

I think one of the things I notice is that the YPA was about the same under Wade as it was under Zimmer. But the QB rating allowed was much better under Wade. The only thing that Zimmer had over Wade was completion % allowed.

All of those things sort of add up that Dallas may need to look to improve the pass coverage of their linebackers. The completion % was better under Zimmer, when he had coverage linebackers like Nguyen and Coakley, so it was probably more difficult to complete those short passes covered by those guys.




YAKUZA

I never saw Nguyen as a coverage linebacker. He was great at flowing to the ball in rush defense, but he never looked like he had the instincts for pass defense. Similar to Bradie James.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I don't think it is a coincidence, either. Third year players tend to be better than 2nd year players. I think there is more growth in a player from year 2 to year 3 than there is even from year 1 to year 2. That is on both sides of the ball.

Zimmer did have talent on his squads. Just not as much talent that this year's defense has on it right now or even last years' version. Especially when it comes to depth. That can help explain why the numbers are better for his 3-4 than his 4-3 squads.

Then I'd like to see why James just so conveniently improved greatly in his 4th year. And Newman was still great.

Outside of Ware, the other young guys like Canty and Spears improved by leaps and bounds. And it wasn't like Ware didn't improve, he still improved quite a bit.

The defense fell apart because Sean Payton's offense revolves around throwing to the tailbacks and Payton knew that the LB's couldn't cover it and he exploited that and other teams followed suit. It would've been nice if Zimmer could have made some type of adjustment.





YAKUZA

 

[Yakuza Rich]

I never saw Nguyen as a coverage linebacker. He was great at flowing to the ball in rush defense, but he never looked like he had the instincts for pass defense. Similar to Bradie James.

He wasn't Brian Urlacher or Donnie Edwards, but Nguyen was pretty good in coverage. I think most people on here would agree.




YAKUZA

 

[dwmyers]

The defense was actually playing pretty well in 2006 for the first 12 games..... then came the inexplicable December meltdown that began against New Orleans. That's when most started calling for Zimmer's head.

However, would things have been different for 2000-05 if we had an offense that won top more often than not and averaged over 28 points per game?

"inexplicable?" Ellis got injured, our pass rush became one dimensional. New Orleans exploited our slow inside linebackers in the flat. Everyone else figured out they could do it. Things snowballed.

The team was thin, was made thin, we still suffer from it at times. We weren't exactly 2-3 deep at every position in 2006.

David.

 

[1st & 10]

"inexplicable?" Ellis got injured, our pass rush became one dimensional. New Orleans exploited our slow inside linebackers in the flat. Everyone else figured out they could do it. Things snowballed.

The team was thin, was made thin, we still suffer from it at times. We weren't exactly 2-3 deep at every position in 2006.

David.

I forgot about Ellis getting injured at that time.

So, I guess that means it wasn't all the coache's fault.

 

[joseephuss]

Then I'd like to see why James just so conveniently improved greatly in his 4th year. And Newman was still great.

Outside of Ware, the other young guys like Canty and Spears improved by leaps and bounds. And it wasn't like Ware didn't improve, he still improved quite a bit.

The defense fell apart because Sean Payton's offense revolves around throwing to the tailbacks and Payton knew that the LB's couldn't cover it and he exploited that and other teams followed suit. It would've been nice if Zimmer could have made some type of adjustment.





YAKUZA

Except that is not what happened. Teams that faced Dallas after the New Orleans game were not constantly exploiting the LBs by throwing to the tailbacks. They were throwing deep. Even the Saints attacked deep quite a bit in that game. The safeties were failing to make plays. Deep passes that were 50-50 were not being defended well.

The defense played a pretty good game against the Seahawks in the playoffs, so I would say there was some good adjustments going on. If not for Glenn giving Seattle 2 points and good field position, Dallas may have been able to win that game behind a strong defensive effort.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Except that is not what happened. Teams that faced Dallas after the New Orleans game were not constantly exploiting the LBs by throwing to the tailbacks. They were throwing deep. Even the Saints attacked deep quite a bit in that game. The safeties were failing to make plays. Deep passes that were 50-50 were not being defended well.
.

You couldn't be more off.

In the Saints game Drew Brees threw a total of six passes that traveled 9 or more yards in the air.

The Falcons scored 2 TD's on passes to fullback Justin Griffith.

Then the Lions decided to have Mike Furrey come across the middle to get Bradie James in coverage against him and Furrey had an 11 catch, 102 yard day.

Because Dallas couldn't stop the short passes, it opened up the deep passing game for opposing offenses.



YA