Tussinman
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The problem is in Zeke's case being "locked into a top 5 pick contract" money wise is still top of the pay-scale for his position.My point about the 4-year contract with 5th year option for 1st round picks is if you're a running back (relevant to our situation) then you get locked down at the "rookie" rate for much, if not all, of your prime. The second contract only exists for the very best and even then you have the franchise tag conundrum. It brings more understanding to Zeke's situation. If he just plays out the rookie deal and then gets franchised once or twice then he doesn't make the same amount as he would if he can sign a long-term deal after year 3. And let's be honest, his price tag isn't going up if he waits to negotiate after year 4 like it might if he were a QB or a WR or almost any other position. He's already at the top of the market from a production perspective. And with Gurley and Bell signed and Kamara and McCaffrey a year behind him, he won't get any more outside help from the market for at least the next year, maybe two. By then it will be harder for him to justify that type of deal because he has more wear and tear. And there's always the risk of injury.
He has more to lose than gain financially by playing on his rookie deal in year 4. Especially since he's only due $3.8 million this year.
It may not matter, he may either get the deal done (in which case his tactic worked) or play anyway once the season starts, which I kind of expect but have no inside info on. But even if he sits out, he's in a much different situation than Bell was.
He gets a career ending injury this year he will make 34 million dollars to only play 2 full NFL seasons. Le'veon played half a decade + sat out a full season and still barely got the amount of guaranteed money Zeke got 3 years ago........
If anything running-back is the best position to get a fully guaranteed top 5 rookie deal (you get automatic top 5 contract from your position day 1, that's not the case with any other position). Look at Barkley getting over 30 million fully guaranteed before ever having an NFL practice, for RB that's incredible