Which model to you yields the best chance at SB?

There is no model. Lets kick that right off the table.

I see the variance in the way teams win games, but I also see key elements that I discussed earlier in the huge bulk of SB winners.

To me there were similar base elements for my two major models of the SB winner:

1. A-level passing QB, at least one elite receiver, good to great defense.
2. A-level defense, strong running game, mostly playaction opportunity passing, B-level passing QB.
3. Teams that do not fit either previous models

I went back all the way to 1980 and saw only 4 clear examples of number three. That leads me to believe there are two main models of SB winners.
 
Easypeasy.

1. Competent QB not prone to TOs.
2. Dominant DLine w/ DTs that collapse the pocket.
3. Good, physical OL.
4. Tough yds RB.
5. Route running WRs.
6. Agile CBs.
7. Ballhawking Ss.
8. Quick LBs who can cover.
9. Chain moving TE.
10.Big nasty FB.
 
I see the variance in the way teams win games, but I also see key elements that I discussed earlier in the huge bulk of SB winners.

To me there were similar base elements for my two major models of the SB winner:

1. A-level passing QB, at least one elite receiver, good to great defense.
2. A-level defense, strong running game, mostly playaction opportunity passing, B-level passing QB.
3. Teams that do not fit either previous models

I went back all the way to 1980 and saw only 4 clear examples of number three. That leads me to believe there are two main models of SB winners.
well first of all Dan Marino will talk to you about how wrong you are.

All the factors i mentioned would have a word with you.

and a play here or there also decided winners or losers, can you narrow down how those fit in?

Once you have figured it all out, you ll realize there is no box big enough for your analysis.
 
I see the variance in the way teams win games, but I also see key elements that I discussed earlier in the huge bulk of SB winners.

To me there were similar base elements for my two major models of the SB winner:

1. A-level passing QB, at least one elite receiver, good to great defense.
2. A-level defense, strong running game, mostly playaction opportunity passing, B-level passing QB.
3. Teams that do not fit either previous models

I went back all the way to 1980 and saw only 4 clear examples of number three. That leads me to believe there are two main models of SB winners.
and also factor in the rules, and refs and which teams play on easier schedules.

Tom Brady did always have to deal with the vaunted Miami Defense year in and year out.
 
Simple. Hire an elite GM and have the owner empower him with 100% authority over literally everything football related.

Let the Jones boys focus on what they do best, hookers and booze.
 
well first of all Dan Marino will talk to you about how wrong you are.

All the factors i mentioned would have a word with you.

and a play here or there also decided winners or losers, can you narrow down how those fit in?

Once you have figured it all out, you ll realize there is no box big enough for your analysis.
How good were Marino's defenses? AND that was a while ago but how good were his running game?
 
How good were Marino's defenses? AND that was a while ago but how good were his running game?
his running game was solid but his WRs were incredibly good, and the defense would have been ok. but if we re going by the model you need a top notch QB, well that model doesnt float. and it floats less in this era. remember he didnt take eras into account. than that really shifts a lot. Marino had a good coach too, lets not play that "the game left him behind" crap either. So, the mere fact people say you need a great QB and stuff to win. nope, because if Terrell Davis doesnt come around, guess who else doesnt win? Thtats right, John Elway.
 
his running game was solid but his WRs were incredibly good, and the defense would have been ok. but if we re going by the model you need a top notch QB, well that model doesnt float. and it floats less in this era. remember he didnt take eras into account. than that really shifts a lot. Marino had a good coach too, lets not play that "the game left him behind" crap either. So, the mere fact people say you need a great QB and stuff to win. nope, because if Terrell Davis doesnt come around, guess who else doesnt win? Thtats right, John Elway.
Correct. I mean, the better the QB the better your chances, but you just need competent w/ no TOs. Eli Manning for instance. He was never more then decent, but he made some plays at the right time and didn't turn the ball over and let his D win the game for him.
 
That is why I believe the easiest way to plan out a SB contending team is the other proven model. Building lines of scrimmage to elite levels to employ a strong running game and defense, with good receiving weapons to hit on playaction.
Blitz - the above paragraph is the simplest way to build the type of team we should try for.

We don’t have an elite QB, so if we are ever going to be serious about getting at least to a conference championship, having a strong running game and defense that can at least keep you in close low scoring games, would give us a decent chance.

Unfortunately unless our FO changes they just seem to play fantasy football by paying a few “stars” they can market and then blame the coaches when it doesn’t get playoff wins.
 
I still believe an elite QB with a great coach is the starting point.

Spare me the yada yada bull crap about building around a bus driver.
I can factually support both Super Bowl appearance and/or SB winner numbers as the vast majority of SB wins using this methodology as the primary means to ultimate NFL success.

And if the team has an excellent GM as well?

Well, you keep that trio together as long as they're productive.

The Dallas Cowboys are zero for 3 at the GM, HC and QB positions.

The team needs "at the very least" as a starting point, an elite QB to win in spite of Jerry.

Draft all the run stopping DTs you want.
The QB has still gotta win 4 consecutive playoff games to hit paydirt.
This current guy can't.
Regardless of coaching or personnel support.
Period.
Interesting points. Especially when we look at the obsession with stopping the run (even in the three 12-5 years). Why did/are we obsessed with stopping the run......because we've a QB who's stats drop off a cliff when the clocks ticking down and we're behind on the scoreboard.
@ShiningStar post above outlining the SB winning QB's need in others is kind of pertinent, but doesnt go far enough with Dak, WHO NEEDS EVERYTHING.

The model is, tear down everything, inc Dak and Jerry steps back and employs a GM.
 
Correct. I mean, the better the QB the better your chances, but you just need competent w/ no TOs. Eli Manning for instance. He was never more then decent, but he made some plays at the right time and didn't turn the ball over and let his D win the game for him.
Yep, it's that QB responsibility. When the game's in the balance and the ball's in the QB's hands, there is no other player to deflect blame and this is where Dak comes up short time and time again.
 
Long post incoming. This is not a thread to spend much time on why Jerry and/or Stephen suck and cannot build a SB winner-nor about the players on the Cowboys that suck and will not win a SB. There are plenty of threads for that discourse.

This is about your philosophy on what model you would focus on to build a SB championship contending roster. First, you would need to define what determines when a team can be close to universally considered a SB contender. Do you believe in windows of contention, and when you define it open and closed? What models have yielded the most consistent SB contenders historically? Which model is the easiest to plan out? Do you believe that teams need to clean house in a rebuild/reset situation when the team cannot achieve SB contention? Are some players untouchable/untradeable? What percentage of credit can you attribute to winning in this league (players vs front office vs coaching)?

I define SB contender as a team that at least gets to the CCG one year, and gets to the playoffs 66% or more of the time. However, I say the window of contention resets after 4 years if the team does not reach at least the CCG again in that timeframe. I think if a team goes 6 consecutive years with mostly the same core, and never reaches a CCG the team must move on from most of the core of the team that has played those 6 seasons.

From a historical perspective, finding an elite QB that you pair with a solid offensive line and at least one elite receiving option and a high end defense is the most consistent SB winning model. The problem is that the league has between 0-3 elite QBs most years. The league can easily go 5-10 years with no elite QB’s in the draft.

That is why I believe the easiest way to plan out a SB contending team is the other proven model. Building lines of scrimmage to elite levels to employ a strong running game and defense, with good receiving weapons to hit on playaction. Using a mobile QB that has the gumption to hit the playaction plays or use their mobility to run for necessary yardage-this model can be effective. This model is more difficult to repeat success in consecutive years because of the percentage of reliance on such a broad portion on the roster (injuries, free agency, etc).

I believe in the Jimmies and Joes theory much more than I believe in X’s and O’s. Systems and coaches get exposed routinely when too many elite players get lost to free agency or injury. Players can also get exposed as to their importance if a team continues to consistently win without them playing. For me, the front office is tied to the players they choose and thus make it the chicken and egg circle debate as to whom to credit/blame. I don’t bother assigning credit/blame to either side on big picture success/defeat because of their interdependency. Coaches to me only impact the overall success/failure by a percentage point or less in the huge bulk of teams. If the coach gets to handle many front office decisions, then that goes on the front office side of the ledger to me.

The team does need to settle on the model or identity that they are trying to achieve though. Both models require a front office that can identify talent and flaws of players and view them as commodities. No player should be untouchable, but proper valuation of each player is perhaps the most critical element of a successful front office. Constant vigilance and reassessment are necessary to keep the team going toward SB contention. It can mean a rebuild/reset is necessary to the current core of the team at times. Swiftly moving on from a once valued player can speed up the rebuild/reset. Delaying can damage the next rebuild/reset. Obviously, analyzing all potentially available players is ideal when making decisions of roster construction.
It starts here.........


9kzho7.jpg
 
- Interview for the best candidate at every staff position.

- Scout well, draft BPA first and for need 2nd. Trade down when it makes sense.

- Sign a premier FA only when the move could put your team over the top or would be a vital piece, otherwise, sign FAs to fill gaps.

- Look for trades at the deadline to see if you can get a good talent for a cheap price and to see if you can unload surplus for picks/players.

- Run a competitive Training Camp that will help decide depth. If a 5th round pick is clearly outplaying a veteran on a big deal, start him.

- Hold players and staff accountable. Don't be afraid to fire a coach even though he's your friend or bench a player even though he has a big contract.
Not one team in the NFL has drafted BPA in the last 20 years
Instead they draft BPA based upon a list of a few key needs
It’s one of the biggest misconceptions I consistently hear on this board
 
Fundamental models won't work here so the best model here is for Jerry to trade Parsons for the same treasure trove of draft picks he got with Herschel Walker...... its the ONLY thing that's worked for him
 
I agree that building dominant lines on both sides of the both is probably the smartest way to approach the problem. But like drafting QBs, it may not be as easy as it seems. First you have to find the dominant guys on both sides of the ball. That means you can swing and miss on draft picks like they apparently did with Mazi Smith. It means using free agency to fill in gaps when necessary. The Eagles were successful becoming dominant in the trenches because the are good talent evaluators. The took a chance on Mekhi Becton, moving him inside and it worked out for them. This was a smart move and he cost them practically nothing for 1 year. When they had high draft picks they used them to grab value in the DTs. Last year thy took two DBs in the first round despite having Slay and Bradberry.

When we talk about Dallas's draft picks this year half of us are talking about RB and WR. That's going in the opposite direction of where some of us think we need to go. But I think those guys advocating skill positions are probably thinking the same way Jerry is.
 
Tout the rest of the team components of a team all you want.
It starts and ends with hall of fame level coaching and/or quarterbacking or both.
Dates back to the 60s and the first Super Bowls with Lombardi and Starr.
The 70s had Noll/Bradshaw, Landry Staubach. Losers but still participants were Grant/Tarkenton.
80s had Walsh/Montana.
90s had Johnson/Aikman, Shanahan/Elway. Losers but still participants were Levy/Kelly.
2000s-2010s had several beginning with Belicheck/Brady, Tomlin/Roethlisberger
Carroll/Wilson
2020s has Reid/Mahomes

Peyton Manning, as a QB, won with 2 different teams.
Joe Gibbs as a coach, won 3 titles with the same team but with 3 different QBs.

There is no doubt Ive probably left some out here as this was a spur of the moment off the top of my head list.
But the central point of this post is "in the majority of cases", either a HOF QB, a HOF coach or both is the best way towards winning a championship.
ALL other team personnel fall UNDER coaching and quarterbacking in importance to winning titles.
Period.
 
Last edited:
Tout the rest of the team components of a team all you want.
It starts and ends with hall of fame level coaching and/or quarterbacking or both.
Dates back to the 60s and the first Super Bowls with Lombardi and Starr.
The 70s had Noll/Bradshaw, Landry Staubach. Losers but still participants were Grant/Tarkenton.
80s had Walsh/Montana.
90s had Johnson/Aikman, Shanahan/Elway. Losers but still participants were Levy/Kelly.
2000s-2010s had several beginning with Belicheck/Brady, Tomlin/Roethlisberger
Carroll/Wilson
2020s has Reid/Mahomes

Peyton Manning, as a QB, won with 2 different teams.
Joe Gibbs as a coach, won 3 titles with the same team but with 3 different QBs.

There is no doubt Ive probably left some out here as this was a spur of the moment off the top of my head list.
But the central point of this post is "in the majority of cases", either a HOF QB, a HOF coach or both is the best way towards winning a championship.
ALL other team personnel fall UNDER coaching and quarterbacking in importance to winning titles.
Period.
As was mentioned Elway did not win a SB but got to several until he had Terrel Davis. Levy and Kelly are two undoubted HOF people and got to FOUR STRAIGHT SBs and could not win a ring though the missed FG really does come into that.

in the end you need some luck
nothing shows this better than Dumb Face and the helmet catch
 
I agree that building dominant lines on both sides of the both is probably the smartest way to approach the problem. But like drafting QBs, it may not be as easy as it seems. First you have to find the dominant guys on both sides of the ball. That means you can swing and miss on draft picks like they apparently did with Mazi Smith. It means using free agency to fill in gaps when necessary. The Eagles were successful becoming dominant in the trenches because the are good talent evaluators. The took a chance on Mekhi Becton, moving him inside and it worked out for them. This was a smart move and he cost them practically nothing for 1 year. When they had high draft picks they used them to grab value in the DTs. Last year thy took two DBs in the first round despite having Slay and Bradberry.

When we talk about Dallas's draft picks this year half of us are talking about RB and WR. That's going in the opposite direction of where some of us think we need to go. But I think those guys advocating skill positions are probably thinking the same way Jerry is.
Many many fans cannot see beyond the skill positions. Unfortunately, Jerry is no more than a fan wearing a GMs suit. And it's a bad fit.
 
Back
Top