Which model to you yields the best chance at SB?

[Dalmations202]

Disagree about the HOF type. D is much more important.

What you want at WR are sharp route runners and at least one fly guy.

Fly guy, IMO, can be your #3 WR though. Just need him to open things up. Give me two big play possession WR that can support the run game and still catch, and then give me the fly guy when they have to start crowding the box to stop the run.

 

[Blitzen]

Disagree about the HOF type. D is much more important.

What you want at WR are sharp route runners and at least one fly guy.

I included D in my first and second model. I was saying I noticed the SB winners mostly had those two models of elements.

The other guy is stuck on Marino. Marino had the misfortune of meeting SF (with Montana and Rice in their prime and a really good defense) in his only SB appearance. SF happened to have the first model I spoke of-better than the one Miami had.

 

[kskboys]

Exactly.
Did not understand the pass on a Kurt Warner previous post response and needed further clarity on the point he was trying to make.

There are some players that casual fans just don't know about. I was surprised to see him listed as not awesome QB who was in a super bowl.

 

[kskboys]

Fly guy, IMO, can be your #3 WR though. Just need him to open things up. Give me two big play possession WR that can support the run game and still catch, and then give me the fly guy when they have to start crowding the box to stop the run.

Yup.

Unfotunately, Jerry thinks every WR has to be Jamaar Chase.

 

[kskboys]

I included D in my first and second model. I was saying I noticed the SB winners mostly had those two models of elements.

The other guy is stuck on Marino. Marino had the misfortune of meeting SF (with Montana and Rice in their prime and a really good defense) in his only SB appearance. SF happened to have the first model I spoke of-better than the one Miami had.

Marino had exactly 1 thousand yard rusher in his entire career. And while the Duper/Clayton duo was good, they were far from top of the heap.

SF didn't have an elite WR when they beat MIA. Rice joined SF as a rook in 85, SF beat MIA in the super bowl following the 84 season.

SF did have a great QB and a great DLine. Roger Craig led SF in receptions in 1984 w/ 71. 2nd on that team was Dwight Clark w/ 52 receptions, he was more of a possession WR.

 

[Blitzen]

Marino had exactly 1 thousand yard rusher in his entire career. And while the Duper/Clayton duo was good, they were far from top of the heap.

SF didn't have an elite WR when they beat MIA. Rice joined SF as a rook in 85, SF beat MIA in the super bowl following the 84 season.

SF did have a great QB and a great DLine. Roger Craig led SF in receptions in 1984 w/ 71. 2nd on that team was Dwight Clark w/ 52 receptions, he was more of a possession WR.

That’s right. Forgot Rice joined directly after

 

[kskboys]

That’s right. Forgot Rice joined directly after

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have a high flying #1, but the problem is that you cannot afford to pay the WR position what it costs to keep him. KC did it right, let their best WR walk, and ended up w/ 2 super bowls thereafter. You have got to pay your interior disruptor.

Cincy did the opposite in letting Ogunjobi and Reader walk, and haven't sniffed a super bowl since, despite having the best WR in the game.

 

[ArtClink]

To which stripper's kid?

You make an excellent point.

 

[Blitzen]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have a high flying #1, but the problem is that you cannot afford to pay the WR position what it costs to keep him. KC did it right, let their best WR walk, and ended up w/ 2 super bowls thereafter. You have got to pay your interior disruptor.

Cincy did the opposite in letting Ogunjobi and Reader walk, and haven't sniffed a super bowl since, despite having the best WR in the game.

I’m pretty sure they could have paid both. If Tyreek wasn’t such a head case, they might have done that. They chose Kelce as their big pay elite receiver-though his skills are diminishing now.

 

[ShiningStar]

Kurt Warner was awesome.

Kurt Warner was awesome, but he didnt come into the league like a number 1 pick as the OP is trying to say , what you needed for his model.

A lot of good or awesome Qbs were overlooked or needed good teams or this or that factor.

 

[ShiningStar]

And the other elements that I mentioned for the first model? The HOF type elite receiver (I didn’t say very good receiver)? He had one of those in the years of those elite defenses? 1998-when he was 37 years old with knees made of fiberglass (no longer an A-level QB at that point)??

Quit avoiding the fact that I never said all the SB winning teams had some variance-but I did point out that most of them had similar elements of one of two models. It’s not random and lightning in the bottle the enormous majority of the time. Most SB teams were strategically built with the elements I mentioned in the two models. Accept it. It’s reality.

a bad Dan Marino is , was and could have still been in other eras, better than even moderate level QBs. he had an intelligence you coudlnt take away. So again. You cant settle on, winning with a high level QB is whats needed.

again John Elway needed Terrel Davis, certain qbs at certain eras needed a lynchpin. Than again you have the Eli's did very well with a great defense. Kurt Warner, did great with a great RB at the time and a greatt offense. the list goes on.

than take into account, how rare are the Great QBs now and whatrs the price to land on

JJ took your model into account, he keeps us mediocre, the chances a good qb falling, very slim. What teams are willing and CAN give up the firepower to trade up, or down, however you want to call it to get a GREAT qb to make your model work

WHICH by the way has to ignore a lot of other factors.

 

[Blitzen]

Kurt Warner was awesome, but he didnt come into the league like a number 1 pick as the OP is trying to say , what you needed for his model.

A lot of good or awesome Qbs were overlooked or needed good teams or this or that factor.

You don’t even understand my posts bud. Go back and read my first few posts if necessary. I spent time talking about two main SB models-one of which did not require an A-level QB.

 

[ShiningStar]

You don’t even understand my posts bud. Go back and read my first few posts if necessary. I spent time talking about two main SB models-one of which did not require an A-level QB.

i did, but again, and i am saying this because i think you are smart and put a lot of effort into it JJ and his whims aside. its just hard with that model. i know you meant well but seeing the game over the decades and not stats but numbers in terms of talen that can be spread across the league. i think some of the older thinking is dead. thats nothing against you, but a testemant to what colleges are producing vs, whats expecting of the NFL.

Realistically, i dont even know what model Dallas could put together right now without a total rebuild. and one you have to plan for the future because QB talent isnt teh same.

 

[StarOfGlory]

Well, sure, but there's only 2-3 HOF level QBs at any given time in the NFL. So, instead of HOF level, you take competent and build around them. Look at the non-HOF level QBs who have won recently: Eli, Wilson, Flacco, Hurts, Stafford. Hades, Kaper dang near won one.

I'd replace HOF level QBing w/ D. Talent in the right areas and coaching. Which teams have won the super bowl w/o stellar play from DT? I really can't think of even one.

I would argue that Hurts is borderline HoF level based on his career so far. In five years, he's voted PB twice, been to two SB's, winning one and being SB MVP. His win % as a regular season starter is 70%; as a playoff starter it's 67%. He has accounted for 140 TD's not counting the playoffs with a passer rating of 93.5. In the playoffs, he has accounted for 20 TD's and a passer rating of 95.4. He will have one of the more unusual paths to the Hall if he gets in.

If Hurts keeps this up for another 8-10 years, I'd say his HoF chances are quite good. I think a lot of us here are in denial about Hurts. The guy just wins.

Stafford might be close to HoF as well. He is already 10th in passing yards, knocking Eli out of the top ten this year, and will probably leap a few others if he plays this year. His overall lack of post-season success, and 108-113-1 record as a starter (thanks for being on some garbage Detroit teams) and lack of end of year awards will hurt though.

 

[kskboys]

I would argue that Hurts is borderline HoF level based on his career so far. In five years, he's voted PB twice, been to two SB's, winning one and being SB MVP. His win % as a regular season starter is 70%; as a playoff starter it's 67%. He has accounted for 140 TD's not counting the playoffs with a passer rating of 93.5. In the playoffs, he has accounted for 20 TD's and a passer rating of 95.4. He will have one of the more unusual paths to the Hall if he gets in.

If Hurts keeps this up for another 8-10 years, I'd say his HoF chances are quite good. I think a lot of us here are in denial about Hurts. The guy just wins.

Stafford might be close to HoF as well. He is already 10th in passing yards, knocking Eli out of the top ten this year, and will probably leap a few others if he plays this year. His overall lack of post-season success, and 108-113-1 record as a starter (thanks for being on some garbage Detroit teams) and lack of end of year awards will hurt though.

I would.

I'd have to see him w/ a team that's not so dominant before I could really judge him. He hasn't had to carry the team.

 

[kskboys]

I’m pretty sure they could have paid both. If Tyreek wasn’t such a head case, they might have done that. They chose Kelce as their big pay elite receiver-though his skills are diminishing now.

No, they chose Chris Jones. Interior pass rusher is much more important to super bowls than WR.

 

[Doomsay]

Snyder resolution

 

[noshame]

A quarterback that adds to the game, even in tough competition, that's the starting peg.
We have proven over the past 25 years that inconsistent. Quarterback, play, gets you nowhere.

 

[Hadenough]

Elite QB is what you really want. But the next best thing would be a QB with pedigree. Meaning he was taken early and has the physical tools you want in a QB along with mental strength. Examples are Goff, Daniels, Stroud, Love. If Dallas had one of those QBs instead of Dak for the any of the playoff games against the 49ers they would of won that game and made it to a NFC championship. The reason being is Dak even though he was pretty good in the regular season he was the biggest turd in the playoffs. And it was year after year. He's broken and this team needs to get a QB with pedigree to build a winning model.

 

[75boyz]

Elite QB is what you really want. But the next best thing would be a QB with pedigree. Meaning he was taken early and has the physical tools you want in a QB along with mental strength. Examples are Goff, Daniels, Stroud, Love. If Dallas had one of those QBs instead of Dak for the any of the playoff games against the 49ers they would of won that game and made it to a NFC championship. The reason being is Dak even though he was pretty good in the regular season he was the biggest turd in the playoffs. And it was year after year. He's broken and this team needs to get a QB with pedigree to build a winning model.

Excellent post.
Totally agree.