Back to the playoffs? With the exception of Flacco (whose 3 seasons after were losing best 2 weapons, AFC divisional round and one non 6th string CB from beating pats, ACL tear into being done), they are all making the playoffs. Again we have 4-6 years of data for Super Bowl teams inside of the rookie wage scale. 4-6 years is NOT a statistically significant sample size so drawing any conclusions on it will be a mistake.
The only data pool with enough data to create a comparison is the data on teams that are making the playoffs and we can probably even go to the divisional round. THAT data suggests, to an overwhelming degree, that you need a franchise guy to make it that far. He can be on a rookie deal OR the mega deal and you will still make it there, but if you do not have him you are not making it that far.
If I flip a coin 4 times and get heads all 4 that does not mean its impossible for it to be tails which is why 4 flips is not statistically significant though if you are really going to take the position that the Saints, who are perennial Super Bowl contenders (would ANYONE have been shocked if they won it all), and the Seahawks, who got this far in a year where they were expected to be in rebuild mode, are examples of why NOT to pay a franchise guy then I cannot think you are being serious. How many teams would LOVE to be the Saints and Seahawks right now.