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Diehardblues

Diehardblues

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Everyone hang in there. It’s going to plunge but remember in 2016 it was hovering around 17,000 and last recession in 2008 under 8,000.

Ive lost hundreds of thousands the last couple weeks which of course Id gained in last decade.

It will rebound again in coming years but it appears a recession more probable than likely due to current atmosphere.
We’re all in this together !!
 
It will likely start to rebound once Russia or Saudi Arabia blinks in their oil dispute.

There are more factors of course beyond the oil war they are waging, but the oil industry has a real-feel impact so that combined with those other factors is enough to drive panic selling.

That said, most of the time you see a rapid drop, you inevitably see a full recovery soon after because panic and fear drives the stock market more so than logic.
 
Russians could easily balance the market here but they know what they are doing. They don't want to so they are creating havoc in the World Market.
 
It's been just waiting for a reason to plunge. It needs to remind us of our complacency.

We get a global crisis situation like this new virus and money gets jealous. Hey, don't forget me, I am still number 1!
 
CouchCoach said:
It's been just waiting for a reason to plunge. It needs to remind us of our complacency.

We get a global crisis situation like this new virus and money gets jealous. Hey, don't forget me, I am still number 1!
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There are several points worth reiterating:

The stock market was due some sort of structural adjustment; many economists believed a 10%+ downward move was not only likely, but necessary.

Beyond the 10% adjustment, most of what we are seeing is panic movement. An announced vaccine for the coronavirus and/or some agreement on OPEC output will result in a rather sharp uptick in the market.

Having spent my career in the oil and gas industry, I worry about even a short-term fall in oil prices. The shale oil production which has contributed significantly to the US economy, job growth and production output has a break-even price around $50/bbl is underwater. My experience suggests the oil industry is quick to turn down spending (with a corresponding drop in production), but much slower to rebound when prices move upward sharply.

The reasons for this are understandable: employees leave the industry in bad times and a significant percentage of experienced employees never return; the drilsame oncegoes lingfor the small independent producer. Once rigs are stacked and facilities placed in cold storage, the return to "normal" business is typically slow - classic hysteresis effect.

Bottom line, the market will recovery, some industries faster than others. Ride it out if you can
 
I liquefied a while back for a couple of reasons. Not just market conditions. I will likely stay liquefied for a while longer as at this point I expect the recession to hit the US this year and the oil mess and COVID-19 is a lot of downward pressure. If I were in the market now, I wouldn't pull out now. I'm already out, so...

The only positives and the reason I feel the market has remained in a bull state as long as it has is interest rates being in the dirt.

As CyberBob said, there are much better deals right now, but the market was mostly overbought prior to this correction. I don't think interest rates will be enough to sustain the market with an economic slowdown, plus the oil mess, and COVID-19 on top.

Also, I suspect COVID-19 will start to subside as temperatures warm up, (though it will get worst until then) but may come right back stronger next winter once the existing COVID-19 contamination re-activate.

Should be an interesting year.
 
If you are not retiring in the next few years, it is actually good that it is tanking so we can buy more shares at the low prices. That old adage of buy low, sell high still goes. Just continue to invest as you would. Can't time the stock market.
 
Reality said:
It will likely start to rebound once Russia or Saudi Arabia blinks in their oil dispute.

There are more factors of course beyond the oil war they are waging, but the oil industry has a real-feel impact so that combined with those other factors is enough to drive panic selling.

That said, most of the time you see a rapid drop, you inevitably see a full recovery soon after because panic and fear drives the stock market more so than logic.
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If you are retiring this year or even next year it will suck. The market is tanking because of a lack of trust in those things that influence the markets. Panic selling was the first day it went down 4%. The last 2 weeks is not panic selling.
 
Rockport said:
If you are retiring this year or even next year it will suck. The market is tanking because of a lack of trust in those things that influence the markets. Panic selling was the first day it went down 4%. The last 2 weeks is not panic selling.
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Today was a panic selling day. 2,000+ point drop immediately after Saudi Arabia announced they planned to flood the market with oil. The NYSE even had to halt trading today.

As for the previous decline, many financial experts have said the market has been over inflated for a while.

A lot of the big stock tech companies have failed to meet expectations and have not been able to create something new that would inspire consumers.

Apple has not been the same since Jobs died. Facebook and Google are being heavily investigated all over the world for privacy issues.

A correction has long been needed to stabilize the markets, but huge single-day drops are not a good way for that to happen.
 
Reality said:
Today was a panic selling day. 2,000+ point drop immediately after Saudi Arabia announced they planned to flood the market with oil. The NYSE even had to halt trading today.

As for the previous decline, many financial experts have said the market has been over inflated for a while.

A lot of the big stock tech companies have failed to meet expectations and have not been able to create something new that would inspire consumers.

Apple has not been the same since Jobs died. Facebook and Google are being heavily investigated all over the world for privacy issues.

A correction has long been needed to stabilize the markets, but huge single-day drops are not a good way for that to happen.
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This isn’t panic selling over the Saudi's flooding the market with oil. They’ve done that many times without the same results.
Since Jobs died in 2011 the stock price has gone up from $54.47 to $260.44 on Nov of last year. Before the recent sell off Amazon and Google have been at near record highs. A correction is when the market goes down at least 10%. We’re nearing at our over 20%. You can bury your head and think everything will be alright soon but that’s not the situation going on. It’s going to take several years.
 
Rockport said:
This isn’t panic selling over the Saudi's flooding the market with oil. They’ve done that many times without the same results.
Since Jobs died in 2011 the stock price has gone up from $54.47 to $260.44 on Nov of last year. Before the recent sell off Amazon and Google have been at near record highs. A correction is when the market goes down at least 10%. We’re nearing at our over 20%. You can bury your head and think everything will be alright soon but that’s not the situation going on. It’s going to take several years.
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Thank you for proving my point. None of those tech stocks are worth what they are selling for nor have the been in a while.

As I said, the market has been overdue for a correction which has what has been going on prior to today. It will still rebound some, but there are a lot of companies that are being propped up by money, past reputation and assumed expectations of something great eventually coming from them.

Apple has done nothing innovative since Jobs died. Jobs was not the innovator but he was great at selecting the next great thing from his R&D department. Apple desperately needs a "new" something that breaks new ground. An iPhone 12, 15, etc. is not it. They need something new.

In any case, my head is not buried at all nor am I influenced like you are by any ideology agendas.

The market has been over valued for a while now, so it would not surprise me at all to see it continue to decline over time, but that's a separate issue for specifically today which was created from the oil price (technically production, not price) war.
 
Reality said:
Thank you for proving my point. None of those tech stocks are worth what they are selling for nor have the been in a while.

As I said, the market has been overdue for a correction which has what has been going on prior to today. It will still rebound some, but there are a lot of companies that are being propped up by money, past reputation and assumed expectations of something great eventually coming from them.

Apple has done nothing innovative since Jobs died. Jobs was not the innovator but he was great at selecting the next great thing from his R&D department. Apple desperately needs a "new" something that breaks new ground. An iPhone 12, 15, etc. is not it. They need something new.

In any case, my head is not buried at all nor am I influenced like you are by any ideology agendas.

The market has been over valued for a while now, so it would not surprise me at all to see it continue to decline over time, but that's a separate issue for specifically today which was created from the oil price (technically production, not price) war.
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Apple is making billions of dollars of the iPhone. Billions. Same with the other companies you mentioned so I disagree with everything you said. It sounds like you have an ideological agenda instead of me. Keep the head buried for 5 years and it w will pass you by.
 
I'm of the opinion that they should breakup big tech companies that offer separate services that all work together to collect data on users. Break those services a part.
 
Fortunately after the largest single day downturn in American history they are rebounding today.
 
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