Zeke Elliott has had an outstanding 4 year career to date. He will start the 2020 season at age 25. So far, he has rushed for 5,405 yards, averaging 1,351 yds per season. He currently sits at 115th in the NFL all time rushing list, and 4th all time Cowboys rusher behind Emmitt Smith, Tony Dorsett and Don Perkins.
The list of NFL RBs who achieve greatness after 7 years of toting a pigskin is not very long. Very, very few RBs even play after their 30th birthday much less excel. In fact, I have divided most of the great RBs into 3 categories of success:
I.
The Longevity Group- the few great RBs that played very well all the way into their 30s- I call them the Longevity Group. Incredibly durable and productive for many, many years. Well past 30.
- Emmitt Smith
- Tony Dorsett
- Walter Payton
- John Henry Johnson
- John Riggins
- Marcus Allen
- Curtis Martin
- Adrian Peterson
- Frank Gore
Everyonet on this list except Gore and Peterson are HOFers, and they both will be in a few years. This is elite territory. All had at least two 1,000 yard seasons after 30. Will Zeke make it to this level? I say it’s doubtful because of his aggressive style of running.
II.
Late 20’s Group- Then there are those RBs who have been great but peaked before 30. I call them the Late 20s Group because they all peaked at before aged 30. Some played after 30, but never had big seasons. All great but not as much longevity as the prior group.
- Jim Brown- retired at 29 at his absolute peak.
- Larry Czonka
- Franco Harris
- Barry Sanders- had a great season at 30, then retired.
- OJ Simpson
- Eric Dickerson
- Thurman Thomas
- LaDainian Tomlinson
- Jerome Bettis
- Marshall Faulk
- Edgerrin James
There are a few others but you get the idea. All of these players are in the Hall of Fame, but had peaked at or before 30. This is the type of career I think Zeke will have. Great, possibly HOF. But peaked before 30.
III.
The Great Short Timers- these are all great players who were absolute stars but injuries shortened or ended their careers. They all had monsters seasons, but their career was like a bottle rocket.
- Gayle Sayers
- Bo Jackson
- Billy Sims
- Terrell Davis
- William Andrews
Sayers and TDavis made the HOF despite careers shortened by injury. The others were great players that made a huge splash then faded.
Of these three groups, I see Zeke having a career like the second group. The guys who peak in their late 20s. I don’t know if Zeke will be a HOFer, but he has a chance if he takes care of his body and avoids injury.
It will be fun to see how the next 4-5 seasons go for him because he will probably peak or decline somewhere in there.