The Cost of Not Signing Dak (lengthy)

[Denim Chicken]

It's true, Brady won 3 Super Bowls in his first 4 years. Prescott has not even gotten to one yet. Tom was certainly no Dak and Prescott was certainly no Brady.

...and Garret was no Belichick

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Jerry stepping down for sure is a zero chance scenario. Dak not getting signed is unlikely, but this situation has not gotten done the past 2 years, and now Dak is coming off injury and the D is clearly broken and in desperate need of rebuilding. There is a chance Dak's agent plays real hardball here. The tag is 38 mil. Mahommes is getting 50 mil per... what is to stop Todd France from asking for 45?

If he drives the price up-- and Dallas tags Dak again-- the divorce is on. Players hate the tag. And Dak already got seriously hurt once on a tag. He wants (and deserves) security considering what other QBs are making. If Dallas doesn't adjust their posture, and try and play hardball back-- I think there is a chance they lose him. Again, not likely-- but stranger things have happened. Definitely worth discussing because until the Dak situation resolves, we can't build out the rest of the roster because of too many unknowns.

I am not so sure the D is broken, to the extent you perhaps are saying. I think Nolan wasn't a good fit. the scheme wasn't a good fit. not having off season to implement was detrimental. I am not saying all the pieces are there, but I think its salvagable.

Dak's injury will not be an issue. if it was achilles heel I would worry more.

until we get actual contract numbers and discussions getting started, we don't know what Dak is asking.....Mahomes is in average 50, but he also has a 10 year contract. so he makes more now, but perhaps be good value later. I doubt that Dak would get a 10 year contract...

right now, until negotiations start, everything is on the table.....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It appears as if he wants to walk.

he did say he almost signed the contract right before deadline last year. so perhaps he wants to stay more than he wants to walk.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Dak does not want security. He was offered that and refused.

actually that's not true....he wanted a 4 year deal instead of 5, to hit 2024 where cap is expected to go up significantly, and he gets to that next contract faster....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

MEANWHILE....

are you suggesting we should tank?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

You want to sign Dak to 4-5 year deal? So did Jerry. Dak wants a shorter deal so he can hit FA right as the cap is expected to go way up and be can cash in again. He wants more than he is worth. Like you said, he's top 10 (not sure I agree but regardless). Top 10 does not get #1 or #2 money which is what he's looking for. Like you also said, the D is broken. How are you fixing that when you have so much tied up in Dak. I would love for Dak to take a deal, paying him for what he is worth as a good, not great QB, but he won't take that. You gotta bite the bullet and move on.

why do you say he wants more than he is worth? in fact he was ready to settle for a shorter term, less money, less average.....

#1. Mahomes. 10 year 500M...
#2 - is watson? is watson really a top 10 QB? and where does he rank?

the fact is that QB contracts go up and they are far and away above all other positions.

how do you fix a broken D? not through FA...that would be utterly stupid...you have to fix the D through better drafting. we have to figure out how to better evaluate defensive players. we have been really bad at that. in fact in the past 15 years, we have drafted 44 defensive players and have hit on 1 impact player, Lawrence and really good player in Jones which we let go. if we had 100M on the cap, we still couldn't fix the defense.

and if you let Dak walk? how are you going to replace him? draft? then why not draft defense?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Without getting into specifics here...

If you don't have a quarterback, you don't have anything. There's no sense in building a roster with everything but a quarterback, because your team is going to suck anyway.

well there is a chance. if you have 3 or 4 HOFers at their prime on the defense.....that's another way of doing it.

 

[Future]

well there is a chance. if you have 3 or 4 HOFers at their prime on the defense.....that's another way of doing it.

Nope.

Good offense beats great defense, and you aren't going to play bad offenses all the way through the playoffs. Last years 9ers should put that theory to rest. They got the Chiefs' B- effort and still lost by 11.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Yup, and the better the talent of the QB(as in elite/generational)the less resources need to be allocated towards other team needs because his talent is said to cover a lot of other team warts. But you gotta have that level talented guy who kinda carries the team first.

Or there is the angle to draft a high QB draft prospect and surround him with all the other high draft capital and FA resources that the cap allows while the QB is still on his rookie contract.

One or the other.

more QBs in the first round fail than succeed. I believe 4 out of 5 fail...so that's a huge gamble. every year people go into the draft swearing by this QB and swearing by that QB....and they fail....and every 10 years fans guess on a QB and it comes out right and they claim they are QB talent evaluation guru's!!!!

and there are only 2 QBs, perhaps 3 that carry their team. Mahomes but then again he has Hill, Kelce and had Kareem Hunt. Rodgers. Brady...maybe, maybe not. the rest are good and those good QBs produce when given resources like Allen, Brees, Dak, few others...... so this notion of a QB carrying all the warts of a team is just pure silliness

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

well there is a chance. if you have 3 or 4 HOFers at their prime on the defense.....that's another way of doing it.

It's hard to find Hall of Fame talent in free agency

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

If Dak is elite and can lead a team to a SB then he's worth it. Eagles extended Wentz and now might regret it which is why they are revamping their coaches to try an fix their QB issues.

perhaps the coach was an issue. funny that when Reich left, the team fell apart and now just look at the colts.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It's hard to find Hall of Fame talent in free agency

exactly....building a team through FA is next to impossible. the players that are worth it, are kept by their teams. the old, injured or head cases make it to FA...and most of them want too much money or one last contract or ride coat tails of others to a championship. rare that a player who can produce at a high level makes it to FA....

or you make a trade, but then again usually the players are towards the end of their contract, so they want a big contract. you lose both a draft pick and give up the dollars.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

...and Garret was no Belichick

No, and Jerry is no Kraft. That's kind of the point right? Look, Tom Brady is an exceptional QB but that's not enough to win him 6 Championships, 3 League MVPs, 3 1st Team All Pros, 14 Pro Bowls, 2000 All Decade 1st Team, 2010 All Decade 1st Team.

To do that, it takes more then just stats. In fact, to do that, you have to understand that it's usually not about stats. You have to have the right team, the right coaching, the right front office and you gotta have a guy who puts team first at QB.

Tom Brady is the Greatest QB in the History of the game but it's not because he threw for stats. It's because he didn't.

Funny thing is, if Dak played for Belichick, he wouldn't have near the stats he does now, but he might have more success.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

The cost of signing him is kissing the next half decade good bye.

Plus, you'll lose half your roster to free agency soon, and guess what? You get to negotiate with him again in 3-4 years.

He just isn't that good. Not worth any of this drama.

why? people keep saying that? so are you also saying that KC is doomed for the next 10 years? Watson will never accomplish anything or has a chance to reach superbowl?

he is a top 10 QB....its not his drama. its a jerry created drama, ala what he did with Zeke.....

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

This leadership stuff is overrated specially if you can't carry your team when they need you..just because you are too friendly with your teammates and a nice guy does not make you a leader

give me list of QBs that carry their team
let me start you off

Rodgers
Mahomes
?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Nope.

Good offense beats great defense, and you aren't going to play bad offenses all the way through the playoffs. Last years 9ers should put that theory to rest. They got the Chiefs' B- effort and still lost by 11.

But good Offense and Defense and ST beats just good Offense. Balance is the thing, which is why you can't over spend on just one side of the ball IMO.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

No, and Jerry is no Kraft. That's kind of the point right? Look, Tom Brady is an exceptional QB but that's not enough to win him 6 Championships, 3 League MVPs, 3 1st Team All Pros, 14 Pro Bowls, 2000 All Decade 1st Team, 2010 All Decade 1st Team.

To do that, it takes more then just stats. In fact, to do that, you have to understand that it's usually not about stats. You have to have the right team, the right coaching, the right front office and you gotta have a guy who puts team first at QB.

Tom Brady is the Greatest QB in the History of the game but it's not because he threw for stats. It's because he didn't.

Funny thing is, if Dak played for Belichick, he wouldn't have near the stats he does now, but he might have more success.

you act as if belichick never opened up the offense and go for junk yards and the like.

when Brady had Moss he had one of the best individual passing seasons in NFL history.

of course they hate to praise on them because of all the wins but that doesn't mean that it's not a team game.

Cam Newton got an MVP because he won a bunch of games. Do you think you really deserved it?

at the end of the day those Patriots teams are going to have multiple players from the defense in the Hall of Fame and only Brady from the offense unless you want to throw in the cup of coffee for Randy Moss.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

True I guess if you have full confidence in a guy who is 9-11 in his last 20 starts.

Or a HC with over 25 years of offensive experience leading that QB but...that HC jus so happens to be 16-27-1 in his last 44 games as HC. Oh yeah, and he's not calling the offense.

I mean if wins and losses by Head coaches and QBs mean anything with regards to how they are paid.

Lemme guess...

Injuries and covid for 2020 AND defense and Nolan

And Garrett for 2019

Sign me up, lifetime contracts for the Dak and McCarthy team

great. you complained and nagged and b!tched to no end. yet you didn't offer any alternatives that would be realistic or better....

in the office we call you guys complainers....they are poison

and let me ask you...how many superbowls would brady win with Garrett?

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Having Dak sure didn’t help much so I think the OPs post is just rubbish.


Now is the time to gamble and not stay on this path of mediocrity that you’re affraid to get away from.

gamble on what? are you saying we should tank? or rebuild? who do you want to gamble on? Dalton (I know he is one of your favorites)? who are you going to add to this team on defense with 30M that would take it from the worst defense in the league to respectable?

 

[Whyjerry]

TLDR: Letting Dak walk hurts this franchise a lot more than it helps us, in both the short and long term.

I have gone back and forth on the Dak-Dilemma for months. I am not a Dak hater. I consider myself a Dak-realist. He is not "elite" in my opinion (Mahommes, Rodgers are the only 2 QBs this year that qualify as elite in my estimation). Nor is he "mediocre" or "average" as many on this site claim. He is good. At times, he is really good. At other times, his play is borderline average.

And so we have arrived at a crossroads. To pay or not to pay? 2 years ago-- fans were arguing on whether or not he was worth 30 mil per year. Many said "not worth more than 25". Then Wentz and Goff signed-- and the needle moved to 34-35 mil per, and the counter was "not worth more 30". Then Mahommes and Watson signed, and the conversation is now 40 mil per and the counter is now "not worth more than 35". The simple truth is the QB market has been drastically reset over the past 2 years, and the cost of good QB play has significantly risen. Had we signed Dak 2 years ago for 30 mil, we would be in the middle of a sweetheart of a deal. But I digress....

If you let him walk... you gain cap space, yes-- but what do you lose? I've been thinking about the following items:

1. Fractured Locker-room. The players love him. He is the unquestioned leader and this is "Dak's team". If we choose to not pay him, the move will NOT be well received by the players and a riff occurs and eyebrows are raised. Add to that the pressure you put on Dak's replacement to fill his shoes on the field, and with his buddies off it-- and you have a bad situation ready to explode.

2. You lose top 10 level QB play on the field. No-- he is not top 3. But he is not middling either. IMO-- he is trending up, and his quality of play is top 10 in the NFL-- and that will win a lot of games. If you let him leave-- how do you replace his production?

3. Leadership intangibles. Related to point #1 for sure-- but Dak may have the best leadership skill of any QB in the NFL right now. Yes, Rodgers is a HOF player, but some of his teammates hate the guy. Mahommes is a stud and well-liked-- but Dak just is a natural born leader. He says the right things. He does the right things. He is football smart, but he has a high emotional IQ as well. Yes, you could trade up to draft a rookie-- but what you might gain (stress "might") in the football talent category, you more than likely lose a TON when it comes to leadership and "face of the franchise" factor.

4. You stand to lose Rep/Cred. If you let Dak walk, and he gets signed by another team, and hoists a Lombardi-- you will forever be the FO that "couldn't get a deal done with a high caliber franchise QB". Ouch. This franchise is already a laughing stock-- but that would take things to a new low-- especially if the "solution" they bring in to replace Dak doesn't pan out.

Therefore-- the best thing for the entire franchise is to sign Dak to a 4-5 year deal. We will overpay. But the number most fans are comfortable with paying him has already moved from 25 million per year 2 years ago, to 35 million per year now. As a fan-- Are you really willing to let him walk and potentially suffer the fallout over a 5 million per year difference?

I agree with this. I am a Dak guy but I think they have too many holes and him going us not a 0 pct probability. I am very interested to see if Fields is available what they will do.