Only 20% of QBs drafted in 1st have great careers

conner01

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Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.
The reason so many QB’s taken in the first fail is because they weren’t taken in the first round because they had first round talent, but because teams are desperate for a QB
That’s why is you get a good one you need to keep him
People forget years between Troy and romo lol
 

USArmyVet

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You’re wasting your breath.

We live in a country in which 40% of the population either ignores FACTS or aren’t smart enough to process the information. That’s painfully clear in 2021.

It’s the same ratio on this board.

“DURRRR LET’S GET RID OF OUR YOUNG PRO BOWL QB (SINCE THOSE GUYS GROW ON TREES) FOR A MINUSCULE CHANCE AT A QB UPGRADE IN THE DRAFT DURRRRRRRR!!!!!!”


So simply insulting people is how you defend your position? Ok.
 

DFWJC

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60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.
If you look at the last 4 years only.....so more relevant/recent data.....it looks like that hit rate is 2-3x higher.
Guess we'll see
 

RonnieT24

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I never suggested anything of the kind. But, you can call it for what it is. Dak and his agent have had very good deals in front of them. They have always walked away. Maybe this is a deal that can't be done and I just believe that fans should not be short sighted over all of this. If Dak and his representation want a deal that the team can't provide, then they should find a deal that allows the team to move on but fans, they need to understand that this is a two way deal. It's not all on the team to get a deal done. The player must also want to do a deal. I can't say I've seen that from the Prescott side, as yet.

What is fair market? You suggest that all deals should be done in such a way, OK, what is that? Right now, Dak is the most useless QB in the Division, should his fair market price reflect that? What you say there is impractical. You can't apply that standard because it's subjective. That doesn't fly. Every teams idea of fair market is different. This is how all of these teams got into the mess they are currently in, think that way.

If the Cowboys truly believe that then they should release him now. And while every team's idea of fair market is different the in aggregate create the market. The Cowboys can end all this today by releasing Dak. Then his fair market value will become concrete. Or place the non-exclusive tag on him and see if anybody will outbid them for his services.. Let's find out what Dak's fair market value is once and for all. I'd like to see it. But I suspect Jerry and Stephen don't.
 

JoeyBoy718

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Dak is a good QB. You’re not guaranteed to draft anyone in the 1st who will be better than him. And there aren’t many veterans you can trade for who would be an upgrade. Young, established elite QBs aren’t readily available at all times.
 

Hardline

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I don't care what the odds are for getting a great QB.
It's still worth rolling the dice on.
 

DFWJC

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We all have our different rankings, but I'll take a ROUGH stab at ranking the last 4 years worth of 1st round picks. Many of these could move up or down 4-5 slots....but here you go
  1. Patrick Mahomes....Best QB in the NFL?
  2. Deshawn Watson....4 years, 3 Pro Bowls.... stud
  3. Josh Allen....top 4 QB in 2020.. All Pro..rising star
  4. Lamar Jackson....NFL MVP 2019, All Pro....slight enigma but uber talent.maybe higher
  5. Justin Herbert....Possible future star but only 1 year
  6. Kyler Murray....good starter with upside
  7. Joe Burrow....Possible future star but only 1/2 year
  8. Baker Mayfield...solid NFL starter...improving
  9. Mitch Trubisky. 1 Pro Bowl, but shaky starter w/ bad weapons...90 QB rtg and 2 to 1 TD to int
  10. Daniel Jones...needs weapons and line to better evaluate
  11. Sam Darnold...see Jones
  12. Tua Tagovailoa.... uncertain...tbd...could be 9th instead of 12
  13. Jordan Love.....no idea because he's behind Aaron Rodgers
  14. Dwayne Haskins....backup
  15. Josh Rosen.....backup
 

ABQCOWBOY

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When? I have not seen any reports that 37/year was ever offered during the negotiation last summer until the 11th hour. Before that the Cowboys were dug in at 35/year and < $100 million guaranteed. All the reports during the summer highlighted how much of a slight it was that the Cowboys were offering less guaranteed money than Goof and Wince. This narrative that they were offering him "top dollar" all along is revisionist history. And to honest since none of the numbers were actually publicized, it's all guesswork anyway. We will know the real numbers when the deal gets done. Until then people throwing out "I heard it was.." carries zero value for me. YMMV.

I already told you when. Last year. It was reported that the Cowboys were willing to go as high as 37 AAV for a five year deal. I mean, you said it in your post above.

"I have not seen any reports that 37/year was ever offered during the negotiation last summer until the 11th hour."

You are essentially admitting that it was offered last year.

Hello!

BTW, you are one of the biggest "throw it out there" people on this entire board. Goff and Wentz are gone so don't talk to me about anything having to do with their contracts. That's stupidity at it's height.

So, last year, the 110 guaranteed would have been tied for 1st with Watson, who has 110 guaranteed, but lets say it was only 100, that still would have been tied for second with Ryan. Mahomes doesn't count unless Dak wants to agree to a 10 year deal, which he won't do.

AAV of 37 would have been third in the league.

What exactly are you complaining about here? What I said is true and btw, Dak isn't signing an extension so even comparing his contract to Watson's is unequal to begin with. He had a very good offer in front of him and he and his agent elected not to sign it. As I said, all deals are not necessarily made to be done. Bring an offer to the team and help facilitate a trade if you don't want to play in Dallas.

But stop crying about what Dak won't sign. He has gotten more then fair "Market Value" offers. He has elected not to sign them. That's on him.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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We all have our different rankings, but I'll take a ROUGH stab at ranking the last 4 years worth of 1st round picks. Many of these could move up or down 4-5 slots....but here you go
  1. Patrick Mahomes....Best QB in the NFL?
  2. Deshawn Watson....4 years, 3 Pro Bowls.... stud
  3. Josh Allen....top 4 QB in 2020.. All Pro..rising star
  4. Lamar Jackson....NFL MVP 2019, All Pro....slight enigma but uber talent.maybe higher
  5. Justin Herbert....Possible future star but only 1 year
  6. Kyler Murray....good starter with upside
  7. Joe Burrow....Possible future star but only 1/2 year
  8. Baker Mayfield...solid NFL starter...improving
  9. Mitch Trubisky. 1 Pro Bowl, but shaky starter w/ bad weapons...90 QB rtg and 2 to 1 TD to int
  10. Daniel Jones...needs weapons and line to better evaluate
  11. Sam Darnold...see Jones
  12. Tua Tagovailoa.... uncertain...tbd...could be 9th instead of 12
  13. Jordan Love.....no idea because he's behind Aaron Rodgers
  14. Dwayne Haskins....backup
  15. Josh Rosen.....backup

That's actually pretty fair DFW.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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If the Cowboys truly believe that then they should release him now. And while every team's idea of fair market is different the in aggregate create the market. The Cowboys can end all this today by releasing Dak. Then his fair market value will become concrete. Or place the non-exclusive tag on him and see if anybody will outbid them for his services.. Let's find out what Dak's fair market value is once and for all. I'd like to see it. But I suspect Jerry and Stephen don't.

Why should they do that. I mean, name me any team in the entire league that would do that. Start now.........

This is ridiculous, don't waste my time with this kind of stuff. You may not value your time and that's fine, but don't waste my time.
 

LACowboysFan1

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I never suggested anything of the kind. But, you can call it for what it is. Dak and his agent have had very good deals in front of them. They have always walked away. Maybe this is a deal that can't be done and I just believe that fans should not be short sighted over all of this. If Dak and his representation want a deal that the team can't provide, then they should find a deal that allows the team to move on but fans, they need to understand that this is a two way deal. It's not all on the team to get a deal done. The player must also want to do a deal. I can't say I've seen that from the Prescott side, as yet.

What is fair market? You suggest that all deals should be done in such a way, OK, what is that? Right now, Dak is the most useless QB in the Division, should his fair market price reflect that? What you say there is impractical. You can't apply that standard because it's subjective. That doesn't fly. Every teams idea of fair market is different. This is how all of these teams got into the mess they are currently in, think that way.

To those who don't think Dak is all that much, or "worth" what he's supposedly asking for, it's worth noting that the Cowboys put the exclusive tag on Dak last year, if they really were seriously thinking about not signing him I don't see they would have done that, the non-exclusive tag would guarantee the Cowboys two first round picks, which would give them great leverage if they really wanted another quarterback, would the Jags not get 3 first round picks (the two from the lost player plus Dallas' own first round pick) even if it means they won't get Lawrence? Maybe but it'd be tempting.

But the exclusive tag keeps Dak from getting other offers, and due to the tampering rules Dak wouldn't be able to find out what other teams would pay for him.

For all the "sources" we hear from, nobody knows what the Cowboys offered or Dak and his reps demanded. One of the "sources" may have been right, but it's not a certainty...
 

ABQCOWBOY

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To those who don't think Dak is all that much, or "worth" what he's supposedly asking for, it's worth noting that the Cowboys put the exclusive tag on Dak last year, if they really were seriously thinking about not signing him I don't see they would have done that, the non-exclusive tag would guarantee the Cowboys two first round picks, which would give them great leverage if they really wanted another quarterback, would the Jags not get 3 first round picks (the two from the lost player plus Dallas' own first round pick) even if it means they won't get Lawrence? Maybe but it'd be tempting.

But the exclusive tag keeps Dak from getting other offers, and due to the tampering rules Dak wouldn't be able to find out what other teams would pay for him.

For all the "sources" we hear from, nobody knows what the Cowboys offered or Dak and his reps demanded. One of the "sources" may have been right, but it's not a certainty...

I would generally agree with this. I mean, I think we can probably believe the offers we heard because there seems to be some commonality on both sides, in terms of reporting but I do agree, nobody really knows the exact truth, outside of Cowboy management or Dak's agent. I do think the team wanted to sign Dak. I just think that Dak and his agent want to get to FA. Now, that last is my own personal opinion but that's what I believe. I don't see any other reason why they would not have done a deal reported to have been offered. Anyway, it is what it is. I'm not afraid to move on from Dak if we can't get him signed. I am afraid to screw this thing up and see him walk away next year with no compensation.
 

aikemirv

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honestly you can probably say that about every position.
Yep, you just notice it more at QB. A substandard QB loses you games. A substandard lineman or LB you work around their flaws and make it work at times if they are salvageable.
 

Ranched

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Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.
Exactly! Whose to say Trevor Lawrence will work out in the NFL. Tougher league/defenses. Extremely hard for any college quarterback making it in the NFL. It's never a gimmie.
 

Zekeats

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60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.
But whats the percentages in round 2? 3? 4?.....
 

Diehardblues

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Something that I think is getting missed here is that in most cases 1st and 2nd round picks are the ones in which teams have the most invested in and as such are given more rope than later round picks. That goes for every position but especially QB. Nobody wants a Josh Rosen situation on their watch. And the only reason that happened was Kingsbury. If they didn't hire Kingsbury Rosen would likely still be the QB in AZ stinking up the joint. If Mariota or Winston were drafted in the 5th round and played the way they did neither of them would have made it to a second season as a starter. Teams are just hesitant to admit their mistakes with these high dollar, high round draft picks. Why do you think Darnold is still the guy in NY? How long did JAX hang onto Bortles despite all the evidence that dude is KP? Look at the Bears futzing around with Trubiski still. Much as I hate to say it I have to give props to the WFTs and the Eagles for being willing to own their first round mistakes and move on rather than waste years trying to prove themselves right.. Same for the Rams..
Absolutely, and as I mentioned these top draft picks are starting almost immediately as well instead of being groomed for a few years on the bench. There’s several contributing factors.
 

ondaedg

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We all have our different rankings, but I'll take a ROUGH stab at ranking the last 4 years worth of 1st round picks. Many of these could move up or down 4-5 slots....but here you go
  1. Patrick Mahomes....Best QB in the NFL?
  2. Deshawn Watson....4 years, 3 Pro Bowls.... stud
  3. Josh Allen....top 4 QB in 2020.. All Pro..rising star
  4. Lamar Jackson....NFL MVP 2019, All Pro....slight enigma but uber talent.maybe higher
  5. Justin Herbert....Possible future star but only 1 year
  6. Kyler Murray....good starter with upside
  7. Joe Burrow....Possible future star but only 1/2 year
  8. Baker Mayfield...solid NFL starter...improving
  9. Mitch Trubisky. 1 Pro Bowl, but shaky starter w/ bad weapons...90 QB rtg and 2 to 1 TD to int
  10. Daniel Jones...needs weapons and line to better evaluate
  11. Sam Darnold...see Jones
  12. Tua Tagovailoa.... uncertain...tbd...could be 9th instead of 12
  13. Jordan Love.....no idea because he's behind Aaron Rodgers
  14. Dwayne Haskins....backup
  15. Josh Rosen.....backup

The last four years have certainly had some good picks. Not sure if that will be the norm moving forward tho.
 
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