Only 20% of QBs drafted in 1st have great careers

[Flamma]

honestly you can probably say that about every position.

Could be. But I think teams tend to reach far more often in the first round with QBs.

 

[buybuydandavis]

I don't have stats on that but yes, most teams fold, that's true. But I think the more relevant concern is to look at what happens to teams that sign those deals. Romo and the Cowboys, never had cap to bring in enough talent. Wasted a lot of careers in those years.

I'm wondering less about Jerry folding, and more about whether Dak just plans to ride out franchise tags until he gets to free agency. That's the way it has looked to me. I have yet to hear the Dak side say "Here's *my* offer". It's always just rejecting offers from Jerry.

The problem with the Romo contract is that he broke. Had his best season ever in 2014. MVP level.
If Romo hadn't have broken, 2015 and 2016 were the high water mark for the oline. Incredibly dominant in 2016, and probably not far from that in 2015, where they blocked a washed up McFadden into the 4th leading rusher in the league in only 10 starts with poor QB play the entire way.
The other killer contract was Dez. He also broke, and was further hampered by losing Romo throwing him the ball.
Jerry tried to keep the band together with Tony and Dez. I had a bigger problem with the extension on Dez than Tony, but don't have much heartburn with either. They delivered like crazy in 2014. Truly a dominant offense. Not something to pass up a chance on.
We could have *traded* Tony, because he had two years left on his contract that were only voided *if* he stayed with the Cowboys. Very weird contract, inviting us to trade him. Never heard an explanation for that one.

 

[buybuydandavis]

One could argue that the investment in the "next two"- a single fourth round pick, is a gross under-investment in the single most important position on the team.

That's my argument. We've under investing in QB, and particularly in roster spots, preferring the washed up bus driver over a young guy to give a chance for a long time.
Recall that ee had also found Matt Moore as an UDFA in that era. We found a whole lotta value, while only busting on a 4th in McGee and a 5th in White.
Churn QBs. Bring in a lot. I'd note that Darren Woodson told Tony that he was the best QB on the team in 2003. Maybe he should be our QB scout. If you can bring in QBs and *accurately evaluate them for talent*, you're gold.

 

[Blake]

We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with ROMO and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

FIXED

 

[Ranched]

 

[FiveSuperBowls]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Do you have statistics for rounds 2,3,4,5,6,7 and UDFA?

 

[DandyDon52]

That isn't a very surprising statistic since a the worst teams pick the top QB's and these guys start their careers in an organization that is wholly devoid of any good culture or coaching stability. I have often said that Tom Brady wouldn't be Tom Brady if he was drafted by the Cleveland Browns.

That and the "experts" are not very good at evaluating college qb's !
If you cant evaluate properly, then your not going to draft a good one.

And then like you say they need to be with a good team and good coaches, and it is usually the opposite.

 

[Big_D]

Never draft a QB in the first again.. problem solved,

 

[PAPPYDOG]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Stay with Dak nothing like ineptness and 8-9 results every season!
The wins are teams with losing records of course....

 

[kskboys]

80% of QBs drafted in the first should not have been drafted in the first.

 

[black label]

dak cant score in the first bra i know, i seen it

 

[Hadenough]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Pretty good chance those QBs are chosen in the first round because the team taking them is also a bad team and maybe bad coaching too. But for many of those QBs they are busts. The thing about taking a QB in the first round is if you look at who is winning a SB in the last 15 years and take Brady out if the equation it's mostly first round QBs with a few outliers sprinkled in.
You can't go back to the 2000 Ravens defense because the league has changed and you can't hit the QB or WRs going over the middle like you used to. Everything has changed to favor the offense and if you don't have a premier QB your team regardless of the defense isn't going anywhere. Your best chances of getting that pedigree are in the first round. This whole situation with Dak and his contract and deciding to keep him is so muddled because of his injury and also the money he wants. It almost makes it easier to want to move on from him.

 

[ondaedg]

Pretty good chance those QBs are chosen in the first round because the team taking them is also a bad team and maybe bad coaching too. But for many of those QBs they are busts. The thing about taking a QB in the first round is if you look at who is winning a SB in the last 15 years and take Brady out if the equation it's mostly first round QBs with a few outliers sprinkled in.
You can't go back to the 2000 Ravens defense because the league has changed and you can't hit the QB or WRs going over the middle like you used to. Everything has changed to favor the offense and if you don't have a premier QB your team regardless of the defense isn't going anywhere. Your best chances of getting that pedigree are in the first round. This whole situation with Dak and his contract and deciding to keep him is so muddled because of his injury and also the money he wants. It almost makes it easier to want to move on from him.

Yep you gotta have a good QB or bust. We’re not too far removed from that 2013 Hawks D or the 2015 Broncos but a lot has changed since then. I personally don’t have any feelings about the contract situation because I haven’t felt that Dak has acted in bad faith. The only thing he asked for is a 4yr contract vs the 5 we wanted to give him. That IMO is perfectly reasonable.

 

[Loso86]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

Which is why signing Dak is important. Wanting these unproven QBs isnt with it in my opinion. Unless we HAVE the pick and nt trading up for it

 

[Brax]

You’re wasting your breath.

We live in a country in which 40% of the population either ignores FACTS or aren’t smart enough to process the information. That’s painfully clear in 2021.

It’s the same ratio on this board.

“DURRRR LET’S GET RID OF OUR YOUNG PRO BOWL QB (SINCE THOSE GUYS GROW ON TREES) FOR A MINUSCULE CHANCE AT A QB UPGRADE IN THE DRAFT DURRRRRRRR!!!!!!”

Pro Bowl 6th alternate, come on guy DURRRRRRRRRRRRR. You are one of the 40%, Too Funny.

 

[Brax]

60% of 1st round QBs flop or have poor careers.
20% have ok careers
20% have stellar careers.

Two first round picks is not nearly enough to jump in the Vegas casino called Draft Your Next QB.

this is from 2016 , bet it hasn't changed much.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

 

[Rockport]

We've seen 4.5 years of Dak. Nothing but stats-most of which were from playing when behind or vs flex defenses in garbage time. When do you call it quits on a guy? 9 years? 10? We did that with Garrett and how did that work out. He can't beat good teams.
We're doomed to 8-8 if he signs. Again.
Zeke was Jerry's 1st mistake and he needs to learn from it.

The ignorance here never ceases to amaze me.

 

[Reverend Conehead]

Too many fans buy into the idea that you can just go pick “the QB tree” and get a good one. Finding a good QB is by far the hardest position to fill adequately, which is why so many teams are willing to take big chances in the draft. And why the market for QB pay is so high.

It makes me wonder if there's a fundamental flaw in the way prospective quarterbacks are evaluated.

 

[Bobhaze]

It makes me wonder if there's a fundamental flaw in the way prospective quarterbacks are evaluated.

That’s a good question. I’ve believed for years that the parts of a QB’s game that are undervalued are leadership, how well they play under pressure, what kind of team they were surrounded by. I believe both scouts and fans are over enamored with arm strength and athleticism and fail to see a college QB in context of the team they played for and how his play impacted that team.

For example, too many college QBs drafted early have been overvalued because of the team they play for. I always thought Tua was good, but he was constantly surrounded by NFL talent on those Alabama teams making him look a little better than he is. Contrast that with Mahomes, who because I’m a Texas Tech fan, I saw him play every game in college- he was great while being surrounded by almost zero NFL talent on below average Tech teams.

One thing that really helps college QBs get ready for the pros is simply experience as a starter. Look at Dwayne Haskins. Dude started like 15 games in college before being drafted in first round. Contrast that with guys like Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson all started between 35 and 45 games in college. That makes a huge difference in being prepared to play in the NFL.

The reason I mention pressure- look at how QBs play under duress. Guys like Tua, Matt Jones and Trevor Lawrence rarely got pressured in college like they will in the NFL. Last year as a rookie, Justin Herbert was off the charts accurate under pressure. He showed that in college too. It’s easy to look great when no one is in your grill.

Finally, the leadership quality. Some QBs just have a special quality that cannot be tape measured. Joe Montana, Roger Staubach, Tom Brady, and Johnny Unitas all had this aura about them that lifted the whole team’s play. They are seemingly in every game because of their ability to lead a comeback against the odds. They are special in an intangible way.

In this current era of QBs, I think too many teams just don’t do their homework on the more subtle parts of what makes a great QB.

 

[ondaedg]

this is from 2016 , bet it hasn't changed much.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks

I looked at that and their criteria for an “ok” QB is different than other sites. For example they labeled Quincy Carter and Charlie Batch as successful picks.