PFT: Salary cap ceiling for 2022 set at $208.2 million

[RonnieT24]

Come on @RonnieT24 , now you are just being overly dramatic. We are in the offseason. The Niners have made a decision for the long term. Both you and I need to acknowledge this. You don't trade two number 1's plus other picks to draft a guy you don't want to make a starter.
I have already stated I am very open and hoping to eat crow on the Dak signing. I wish he wins 4 SB's, I will wear he jersey all day.
The majority of my points are on point, you honestly know it. This organization has not foresight. They make the obvious moves. They never go for it, which is why we are where we are. Records, performances, end results don't lie after 25 years.
I don't understand why when I try to be objective people get insulted?

If you are willing to have a reasonable discourse on things I will do it with you all day. Yes the 49ers made a move for their future.. but barring an injury to Garapolo Lance will carry a clipboard this year.. Period.

It's fair to wonder if Dak will ever become a truly great NFL QB.. but how does "he will never play up to that 40 million dollar a year contract" sound "objective?" The statement in and of itself is subjective and every person has his or her own standard which he will have to hit to satisfy them that it's money well spent. For some it's win the division.. for others it's get to the Super Bowl and everything in between. That's all fair.. however your OPINION that he will NEVER play up to it is just that.. an opinion. If you have been on this board long you know that there are those who have moved the goalpost every year since Dak became the starter. First it was "can't throw for big yards and is just a game manager.." then it was "can't win without Zeke" then it was "can't win the playoffs" .. every time he shut them up about whatever point they were dug in on they came up with a new one. I don't know if you are one of those people but they've been here spewing the same nonsense daily for the last 5 years. Their latest canard is he can't beat good defenses (he has) or he can't "carry the team" (he has) and my favorite "he can't inspire the defense to play better." This last one is a good one because if the defense DOES play better, force turnovers and give his a short field they will rush to the keyboard to tell us that if not for the defense handing him points we would have lost. They just keep moving the goal post.

I have said many times that up until those first few games in 2020 I had my doubts about whether Dak could truly put the team on his back for long stretches. We had seen it for a quarter or a half and maybe even a game over the years but we had not seen him just shred defenses with Zeke not really doing much of anything before. Then I watched him against that Rams defense basically have us in position to win that game before the refs screwed us with the call on Gallup. Then I watched him light up ATL.. Then I watched him get us to a lead at Seattle with 3 minutes left.. Then I watched him eat up Cleveland. Then I watched him lead the offense to three straight TD drives to put his foot on the neck of the Giants defense. It wasn't just the gaudy numbers in those games that caught my eye.. It was the circumstances.. The patchwork line in front of him.. The next to non-existent running game.. It was the number of money throws made with bodies all around his feet because because the line was bad and the defense was not even pretending to play the run. That stretch changed my mind about Dak Prescott. Until that display I was fine with letting him play on the tag in 2020 and drafting his replacement if we missed the playoffs. He needed to take it to another level to convince me that he was the guy... and he did. I understand and respect why some people still need to see more. Like I said at the start here.. we all have our own standard. Dak has met mine.. If he comes back and plays at the level he was playing at for most of those 5 games in 2020 then I'm cool with his salary. If he regresses I won't be.. If he gets better.. (which I think he will) I will be ecstatic.

 

[dckid]

If you are willing to have a reasonable discourse on things I will do it with you all day. Yes the 49ers made a move for their future.. but barring an injury to Garapolo Lance will carry a clipboard this year.. Period.

It's fair to wonder if Dak will ever become a truly great NFL QB.. but how does "he will never play up to that 40 million dollar a year contract" sound "objective?" The statement in and of itself is subjective and every person has his or her own standard which he will have to hit to satisfy them that it's money well spent. For some it's win the division.. for others it's get to the Super Bowl and everything in between. That's all fair.. however your OPINION that he will NEVER play up to it is just that.. an opinion. If you have been on this board long you know that there are those who have moved the goalpost every year since Dak became the starter. First it was "can't throw for big yards and is just a game manager.." then it was "can't win without Zeke" then it was "can't win the playoffs" .. every time he shut them up about whatever point they were dug in on they came up with a new one. I don't know if you are one of those people but they've been here spewing the same nonsense daily for the last 5 years. Their latest canard is he can't beat good defenses (he has) or he can't "carry the team" (he has) and my favorite "he can't inspire the defense to play better." This last one is a good one because if the defense DOES play better, force turnovers and give his a short field they will rush to the keyboard to tell us that if not for the defense handing him points we would have lost. They just keep moving the goal post.

I have said many times that up until those first few games in 2020 I had my doubts about whether Dak could truly put the team on his back for long stretches. We had seen it for a quarter or a half and maybe even a game over the years but we had not seen him just shred defenses with Zeke not really doing much of anything before. Then I watched him against that Rams defense basically have us in position to win that game before the refs screwed us with the call on Gallup. Then I watched him light up ATL.. Then I watched him get us to a lead at Seattle with 3 minutes left.. Then I watched him eat up Cleveland. Then I watched him lead the offense to three straight TD drives to put his foot on the neck of the Giants defense. It wasn't just the gaudy numbers in those games that caught my eye.. It was the circumstances.. The patchwork line in front of him.. The next to non-existent running game.. It was the number of money throws made with bodies all around his feet because because the line was bad and the defense was not even pretending to play the run. That stretch changed my mind about Dak Prescott. Until that display I was fine with letting him play on the tag in 2020 and drafting his replacement if we missed the playoffs. He needed to take it to another level to convince me that he was the guy... and he did. I understand and respect why some people still need to see more. Like I said at the start here.. we all have our own standard. Dak has met mine.. If he comes back and plays at the level he was playing at for most of those 5 games in 2020 then I'm cool with his salary. If he regresses I won't be.. If he gets better.. (which I think he will) I will be ecstatic.

Hey @RonnieT24 , I understand what you are saying about Dak. He has obviously outplayed his draft position, that is why I loved him from 2016 to 2020. You have to objectively analyze your team and that is where the Cowboys have failed. They love paying their guys as if its some bragging rights. Homegrown talent.. kind of a baseball mindset from the 80's/90's.. This kid is from our farm system.
Moving on to your second paragraph, where you are talking up Dak's heroics. Yes he put up a lot of good stats, but from what I remember he put up the majority of those numbers in garbage time. They were down double digits to the Falcons & Cleveland.
Giants were just a bad team.

They lost 20-17 to the Rams. Calls happen when they happen. He was down that game.
They were down huge to the Falcons and then they made a miraculous comeback and talk about getting a break with the onside kick.
The Seattle game was back and forth and it was a shootout, both teams had historically bad defenses. Metcalf had that boneheaded celebration.
The Cleveland game was just embarrassing.
A lot of these games were just two deep zone let the offense get yards and we will still win the game. My mind didn't change based on those 5 games.

To me Dak is a good QB. I really don't think he will be elite. It is my opinion you are 100% right about that. And I will say this, once us fans start watching players for years we realize what their ceiling is. I hope we can get to a SB fairly quick, historically I see more of the same>
Over the past 20 years, I was actually surprised by Eli winning two SB's. Jake Delhomme getting to a SB, Dilfer winning in 2000, Kerry Collins getting there in 2000.

 

[RonnieT24]

Hey @RonnieT24 , I understand what you are saying about Dak. He has obviously outplayed his draft position, that is why I loved him from 2016 to 2020. You have to objectively analyze your team and that is where the Cowboys have failed. They love paying their guys as if its some bragging rights. Homegrown talent.. kind of a baseball mindset from the 80's/90's.. This kid is from our farm system.
Moving on to your second paragraph, where you are talking up Dak's heroics. Yes he put up a lot of good stats, but from what I remember he put up the majority of those numbers in garbage time. They were down double digits to the Falcons & Cleveland.
Giants were just a bad team.

Your memory is faulty.. During Dak's 5 games they averaged 15.5 points in the first half and 17.2 in the second. A difference of less than 2 ppg between halves. And just when does the alleged garbage time happen?

Halftime lead against the Rams.. it was never more than a one score game for either team so zero garbage time there.

Against ATL he cut the lead to 29-24 in the third quarter before the defense dropped trow to ATL's offense again in the 4th. So was the entire 3rd quarter "garbage time?" And did it stop being garbage time when it got back to within one score or did ATl continue playing prevent the whole second half? (P.S. it's a rhetorical question because we both already know the answer.)

Most of the 2nd half at Seattle was a one score game as I recall.. again when was the alleged garbage time to have taken place?

14-7 lead against Cleveland.. The two fumbles on consecutive drives by first by Dak when the genius of Kellen Moore left Brandon Knight one on one with Myles Garrett then Zeke and Schultz? derailed the offense there.. Dak was ballin.. and continued to ball the rest of the game. That's how he ended up with 500 yards and 4 TDs. And if the defense could make a tackle on a friggin reverse I have no doubt that he completes that comeback. And I guarantee you that once they saw what Dak was doing to their prevent defense Cleveland shifted out of that crap with the quickness. Go back and watch the game.. watch the pass rush.. Do they look like they're mailing it in and just letting the Cowboys offense score at will? On the Cowboys first possession of the second half when the score was 38-14 on 3rd and 9 Cleveland sent a safety blitz (#33) who almost forced another fumble as he got to Dak unblocked. Garbage time soft defense? On the next possession on 2nd and 10 they blitzed both the inside backer 55 and the corner #36. Not a lot of "sitting back playing soft" or "two deep zone letting the offense get yards" on display there. On the same drive on 4th and 3 the Browns had 10 men within 3 yards of the line of scrimmage.. to defend the short throw.. Again another example of the fallacy of the "teams played prevent against Dak and that's how he got his numbers."

24 points by halftime against the Giants.. Garbage time?

Frankly the whole "garbage time" and "soft defenses" argument is tired as hell. Teams have been rolling out those defenses against every QB in the league for 50 years and nobody has ever shredded them at the rate Dak did. If it's so easy to do what he did against these defenses why has nobody ever done it before? At some point you gotta give the kid his due.

They lost 20-17 to the Rams. Calls happen when they happen. He was down that game.
They were down huge to the Falcons and then they made a miraculous comeback and talk about getting a break with the onside kick.
The Seattle game was back and forth and it was a shootout, both teams had historically bad defenses. Metcalf had that boneheaded celebration.
The Cleveland game was just embarrassing.
A lot of these games were just two deep zone let the offense get yards and we will still win the game. My mind didn't change based on those 5 games.

To me Dak is a good QB. I really don't think he will be elite. It is my opinion you are 100% right about that. And I will say this, once us fans start watching players for years we realize what their ceiling is. I hope we can get to a SB fairly quick, historically I see more of the same>
Over the past 20 years, I was actually surprised by Eli winning two SB's. Jake Delhomme getting to a SB, Dilfer winning in 2000, Kerry Collins getting there in 2000.

It's fine if you don't see what I saw watching Dak this year.. But a lot of people suffer from confirmation bias when watching these games. Even though I can scroll through these games and offer dozens of plays that fly in the face of the "garbage time stats" narrative people refuse to acknowledge that their recollection is simply wrong. There is nothing to be done about that. We all see through the lenses of our own perceptions and biases. Plenty of QBs not as good as Dak have made it to the Super Bowl and even won it.. like the ones you listed. So I'm not going to sit here and say what he can and can't do with any authority. IMHO he's better now than he was when he came into the league and truthfully has gotten better each year.. As I've said I'm fine if 2020 Dak is as good as he gets.. because IMHO that's good enough to win if the team does not poop the bed around him. But I see no reason why he can't be even better.. Not so much in how well he throws the ball or any of that but in how he manages the game. How he dictates tempo when he sees a defense getting tired.. Or how he slows things down and milks the clock when he sees his own defense getting worked. How well he syncs up with Moore and how well he does shaking him off when he sends in stupid 5-wide plays in the red zone. Those are all things Dak can get better out without changing a single thing about how he himself plays. I cannot find a compelling reason why he can't do just that.

 

[Point-of-the-Star]

Dak haters: what you got now/?

Even though I'm not a "hater" I want to go on record saying I love Dak! And just for piling on I love you too Rocky (in a bro sorta way). I love all our new draftees, FA's, and UDFA players. I love fat Zeke too! I especially love DQ as he'll bring out that Doomsday mentality. I love all our posters on CZ (except one . . . he's definitely a richard).

Right now I only like MM.

I can't wait for pads and TC! It'll be a summer of love !!!!!


sssssssss . . . no bogarting from me !

 

[Sydla]

So? The salary cap this year is 182.5 and going up 27.5 mill next year. The point is that Dak’s contract was based on the team knowing that the salary cap was going to sky rocket so it wouldn’t hamstring the team. Which is what you haters have been saying ever since he signed. You included.

Well first, you keep lying about my stance on Dak and his contract. I have never said anything about how Dak's contract would kill our cap and screw us. You made that up.

That being said, yes, a QB contract like Dak's is going to have cap implications. It's not just for Dak, it's for any QB that lands that big 2nd or 3rd deal. That's just reality. Not good, not bad. Just reality.

As for the cap, it makes no sense to compare the artificially depressed cap number in 2021 to the new 2022. The proper analysis is to compare the 2022 cap number to the highest recent cap number. That was 2000. So the poster was right. The cap only increased about $10 million.

 

[Sydla]

Also, in two years his monster contract will be way down the list, when several other guys get more.

But this kind of analysis is silly. Who cares what Dak makes relative to say Joe Burrow, who tears the league up, and then gets paid more than Dak? The reality is that even in a few years, Dak's contract (or any QB in his situation) is still going to take up a sizable chunk of a team's cap. The question then isn't where Dak ranks on the QB paid list, it's are you getting the right return on a player that commands a huge chunk of a team's cap.

Those that complain don't think Dak is the QB that's going to lead this team to a SB win, therefore, commanding that much cap space to him was a mistake. The reality is that when you have a situation like that, for any highly paid QB, that player has to be good enough to overcome the potential roster holes a team might have due to cap constraints. If the Cowboys draft smart and Dak is really, really good, then it shouldn't be a problem. If Dak kind of flatlines and is just a "good" QB (or let's say his injury lingers longer or has capped his growth), then the Cowboys have an issue.

 

[ESisback]

But this kind of analysis is silly. Who cares what Dak makes relative to say Joe Burrow, who tears the league up, and then gets paid more than Dak? The reality is that even in a few years, Dak's contract (or any QB in his situation) is still going to take up a sizable chunk of a team's cap. The question then isn't where Dak ranks on the QB paid list, it's are you getting the right return on a player that commands a huge chunk of a team's cap.

Those that complain don't think Dak is the QB that's going to lead this team to a SB win, therefore, commanding that much cap space to him was a mistake. The reality is that when you have a situation like that, for any highly paid QB, that player has to be good enough to overcome the potential roster holes a team might have due to cap constraints. If the Cowboys draft smart and Dak is really, really good, then it shouldn't be a problem. If Dak kind of flatlines and is just a "good" QB (or let's say his injury lingers longer or has capped his growth), then the Cowboys have an issue.

I’m not a numbers/cap guy, but how do the percentages compare? Dak’s 2022 salary with a 208.2 cap, compared to previous years? Math guys?

 

[Sydla]

I’m not a numbers/cap guy, but how do the percentages compare? Dak’s 2022 salary with a 208.2 cap, compared to previous years? Math guys?

His cap hit is around $33 million in 2022, thus he'd account for roughly 16% of the cap.

And just for comparison, his cap hit is over $44 million in 2023 and in order to stay at 16% of the cap, the total Cowboys cap threshold would have to be around $276 million.

 

[ESisback]

His cap hit is around $33 million in 2022, thus he'd account for roughly 16% of the cap.

And just for comparison, his cap hit is over $44 million in 2023 and in order to stay at 16% of the cap, the total Cowboys cap threshold would have to be around $276 million.

Sounds like they gotta make hay during the next 2-3 years while they have the rookie contracts! Looks daunting. Always a gamble, I suspect we’ll see an abundance of one year deals and restructures to ease the pain. Personally, I choose not to waste time stressing over possibilities.

Enjoy the ride!

 

[Rockport]

Well first, you keep lying about my stance on Dak and his contract. I have never said anything about how Dak's contract would kill our cap and screw us. You made that up.

That being said, yes, a QB contract like Dak's is going to have cap implications. It's not just for Dak, it's for any QB that lands that big 2nd or 3rd deal. That's just reality. Not good, not bad. Just reality.

As for the cap, it makes no sense to compare the artificially depressed cap number in 2021 to the new 2022. The proper analysis is to compare the 2022 cap number to the highest recent cap number. That was 2000. So the poster was right. The cap only increased about $10 million.

You just implied Dak’s contract is going to cripple us. You’re not fooling anyone but yourself so keep hating. It’s what you do and enjoy and live for.

 

[Qcard]

Dak haters: what you got now/?

We pulled Dak Hater's Cap Hell Myth Card FOREVER

 

[Qcard]

With the new TV contract going into effect soon, in 2023? And expectations of full stadiums. The added game. And the 2nd year of the extra playoffs teams and with full attendance for those also. I think the cap could jump more than $208 million. So I guess they want to be sure it doesn’t get too far out of hand and even higher pay wanted by players and agents. So they want to cap it for now.

Exactly!!! The Owners as usual made sure they have the Cap Hell Myth trope so they can Cap players pay.

Anyone who thinks NFL players are Greedy are tools for the Owners and at worst Un-American.

 

[Sydla]

You just implied Dak’s contract is going to cripple us.

So from that bolded comment, you came up with this? LOL. And why didn't you bold the other part of that paragraph where I further explained the point? Oh I know why, you fraud.

Big QB contracts have larger cap implications than any other positional contract. That's just a fact. It's simple math actually. Large QB contracts almost always account for the largest percentage cap hit of any player on a NFL roster. If a QB plays really, really well, that factor is mitigated. If the QB doesn't play at a very high level, it absolutely causes some issues for a team carrying that cap number. Shoot, look at Philly and how their cap has been hit due to the Wentz mistake (and because you struggle with being able to comprehend what people actually write, no I am not saying Dak Prescott will go the way of Wentz - I suspect Prescott will be just fine).

 

[Sydla]

Sounds like they gotta make hay during the next 2-3 years while they have the rookie contracts! Looks daunting. Always a gamble, I suspect we’ll see an abundance of one year deals and restructures to ease the pain. Personally, I choose not to waste time stressing over possibilities.

Enjoy the ride!

They likely will restructure at some point and kick the can further down the road, hoping for sharp increases in future caps to absorb the adjusted cap hits.

 

[Rockport]

So from that bolded comment, you came up with this? LOL. And why didn't you bold the other part of that paragraph where I further explained the point? Oh I know why, you fraud.

Big QB contracts have larger cap implications than any other positional contract. That's just a fact. It's simple math actually. Large QB contracts almost always account for the largest percentage cap hit of any player on a NFL roster. If a QB plays really, really well, that factor is mitigated. If the QB doesn't play at a very high level, it absolutely causes some issues for a team carrying that cap number. Shoot, look at Philly and how their cap has been hit due to the Wentz mistake (and because you struggle with being able to comprehend what people actually write, no I am not saying Dak Prescott will go the way of Wentz - I suspect Prescott will be just fine).

Hey you’re gonna hate no matter what I say so just go forth and be miserable your whole life. I tried to enlighten you but not I could care less.

 

[Sydla]

Hey you’re gonna hate no matter what I say so just go forth and be miserable your whole life. I tried to enlighten you but not I could care less.

You could not care less but still tried to enlighten me? That's some real Rocky logic there.

I also love the fact you call people miserable yet you spend all your time here getting upset at people that don't wave the pom poms 24/7 like you do. But yeah, it's other people that are miserable. One of your many failures as a person and a poster is your total lack of self awareness.

 

[Flamma]

[QUOTE="CowboysFaninHouston, post: 10988275, member: 6090"]its the market rate. what Dak got paid was the going market rate for top 10 QB. you, I , this board doesn't set the market, players and owners and GMs do. with that said, this may seem like a high rate today, but 2 years from now, given bunch of new QB contracts are being/to be negotiated, will not seem as high. its the way of the NFL. Wilson had the highest contract, but 2 years later, he makes 33M...and we all argue that's what we should pay, and wait until next year when Wilson renegotiates his contract.....45-50M is not out of the question. With Alan, mayfield, Lamar Jackson contracts looming in near future.[/QUOTE]

What does that tell you? QBs will be paid the market rate. All QBs are not equal in talent yet they'll get paid market rate. Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen will be paid market value. They are not as good as Rodgers and Mahomes. That's what people are pointing out.

 

[Flamma]

To that tune, let's not make it seem like Dak's cap hit is some sort of aberration. He will only have the 8th biggest cap hit for QBs (thus far) in 2022. Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, & Ryan Tannehill are all ahead of him. Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, & Carson Wentz are less than $6M behind him.

Unless you have a QB on a rookie deal or an older vet it is inevitable that you will have a QB with a disproportionate cap hit relative to other positions.

Dak's cap hit for 2022 will probably not be 33 million, but 18 million. This is the reason the 6th year is in his contract. If Dak plays well enough over the next two years, and the Cowboys think he's worth it, his 2023 cap hit will be further altered moving forward. If he doesn't, it won't be, and Dak will be gone after 2023.

So if Dak plays well his cap hit shouldn't be a problem for at least 2 years. Possibly more depending on the TV deals and how much the cap goes up.

 

[Flamma]

His cap hit is around $33 million in 2022, thus he'd account for roughly 16% of the cap.

And just for comparison, his cap hit is over $44 million in 2023 and in order to stay at 16% of the cap, the total Cowboys cap threshold would have to be around $276 million.

Like I said in a previous post, his cap hit for 2022 should not be 33 million. It will be 18 million. All they do is turn his base salary into bonus money and spread it out. That's the reason the 6th year is in his contract.

 

[Aviano90]

Then don't watch and take your pessimistic self away from here so you don't pollute the board with all your negativity.

A football “fan” that doesn’t understand contracts impact the salary cap and thinks the team can sign 53 players to top contracts because the salary cap increases. Stick to Madden and let real fans have the football discussions.