NBA Offseason 2023

[jterrell]

According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, there is now a second apron being implemented that will severely limit the ways teams over it can spend. The threshold is for teams $17.5 million over the luxury tax threshold, and restrictions for those above it include:

• No access to the mid-level exception (MLE), including the taxpayer MLE. The present-day apron is triggered when a team utilizes more than the taxpayer MLE amount. The second apron would get triggered if a team uses any portion of the MLE.
• Not being able to take in more salary in a trade than they’re sending out. Teams over the luxury tax are currently allowed to take back up to 125 percent of their outgoing salaries, but that will be eliminated for them.
• Not being able to trade a first-round pick seven years out or cash. This would now allow teams to trade their 2030 first-round pick this season.
• Not being able to sign buyout players.

This is expected to be phased in but it is major:
Examples:

Team could now only trade of their own 3 R1s in any deal versus 4 now.
Team cannot recoup a rotation player with MLE as those over tax line by tons do now. In fact those teams have been at top of list for MLE guys and will now be limited to vet minimum.
Similarly, team cannot sign buy out guys who again were targeting these teams. Now they cannot be signed to them even for the vet minimum.

I believe the net chance of this is that R1 picks and young talent on cheaper deals will gain tons of value.

The PHX Beal trade may be the last of its kind.
I think you'll see more deals where a team has 3 max guys and the least of those max guys is getting traded off at a major loss to reduce salary and regain roster flexibility.
I think this will drive salaries down a good bit.
Guys likely aren't going to be an automatic max for just being good anymore.
Going to have to be great.

 

[jterrell]

It will be interesting to see how the Spurs approach this year. They have tons of draft capital with multiple 1sts. Do they trade some of those assets and move up into the lottery again and pick someone that compliments Wembanyama? Or do the trade for some top tier players or go all in in Free Agency?

Yea IDK what Pop does but they have assets and a guy now to build around.
Pop will develop talent but how much patience and time does he have left?

I think this new CBA helps SAS a lot actually as really good players are going to seek homes that pay them as opposed to just brand name franchises.
Young, cheap assets are going to skyrocket in value.

 

[jterrell]

the below per the athletic would help make a lot more sense for washington in this beal trade:

The Lakers don’t have a lot of assets, but they could package Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba, each on expiring contracts after next season, in a package that would match the $28.4 million guaranteed portion of Paul’s 2023-24 salary in a potential trade. (Bamba’s deal is non-guaranteed for next season if he is waived before June 29.) The Wizards could also hold out for more and ask that Jarred Vanderbilt or L.A.’s first-round pick in Thursday’s draft — or both — be included in a deal too, which might result in the Lakers expanding the trade to ask for Delon Wright. Washington could also try to add a third team into the mix who could help facilitate the deal with additional draft picks and/or players going to both the Wizards and Lakers.

Bottom line, though, is that there’s a relatively clean deal that the Lakers can make for Paul that could bring additional assets to D.C. Stay tuned.

 

[darthseinfeld]

Yea IDK what Pop does but they have assets and a guy now to build around.
Pop will develop talent but how much patience and time does he have left?

I think this new CBA helps SAS a lot actually as really good players are going to seek homes that pay them as opposed to just brand name franchises.
Young, cheap assets are going to skyrocket in value.

It will be interesting to see how the Spurs approach this year. They have tons of draft capital with multiple 1sts. Do they trade some of those assets and move up into the lottery again and pick someone that compliments Wembanyama? Or do the trade for some top tier players or go all in in Free Agency?

Spurs have 1 this year but 3 each in 2024 and 2025 (with protections

Spurs have an interesting assortment of young talent. I dont think you make a major move right now, but take the season to see how guys like Sheldon Johnson, Sochan and Vassel fit with Wembanyama. After the season, if they want to make a move they have the assets both in young talent and draft caption to make a truly seismic move

 

[darthseinfeld]

Some chatter Im hearing on the Celtics

- Word is they may be moving a guard with Brogdon the most likely. Wont be Smart and unlikely to be Pritchard. Brogdon's $ and health make him the most likely. The move would about rebalancing the roster, with them bringing back either an wing or interior player. They don't want Pritchard because he is cheap and very popular in tje locker room. However if they do move Brogdon, he really needs to step up. They traded for Brogdon in the first place because Pritchard didnt offer enough juice, and Brogdon getting hurt was a big reason they lost the ECF. Personally I think you keep Brogdon unless you can get a healthier version of him. That is your best shot at a chip and the time is still now

- There is talk of them possibly looking to do an S&T with Grant Williams. They offered Williams 4 for 50 which he turned down amd is looking for 20 per. That is alot for him, but he may actually have a market. Id love to get Mo Bamba back in an S&T for Williams. Williams is a better fit for that team than Vanderbuilt

 

[darthseinfeld]

Celtics in talks in a 3 way trade that would send Brogdon to LA and Porzingis to Boston. That would a very interesting looking starting lineup next year if it happens. If Porzingis getting the shoot splits he did last year (49/38.5) that would be a huge plus for Boston

 

[darthseinfeld]

So the Brogdon deal falls through due to his injury. Celtics ship Smart to Memphis, and Gallinari and Muscalla to Washington for Porzingis and two 1sts.

Trading Smart really hurts, but getting two firsts out of this deal is a huge win for Boston. Its going to be interesting to see what they do with them. If they make other moves, or hold them. They have #25 tonight, and most likely two next year (GSW pick is protected by will likely convey). Porzingis opted in and word is they may extend him for two years. Could make next offseason very interesting.

It will be interesting to see what Porzingis does here next year as the #3. He shot career high efficiencies last season and could benefit from Tatum and Brown getting alot of attention. He has become a very strong P&R defender as well

A big issue I have right now is Porzingis has an extensive injury history. And so does Brogdon. As it stands your 3rd and 4th best scorers miss about 50 games a year combined. That is dangerous for a team with title aspirations. And as I said before, Brogdon getting hurt killed us again Miami. If I was Boston, I would use pick 25 with Brogdon's salary to try and find a more reliable perimeter scorer

 

[T-RO]

If Porzingis getting the shoot splits he did last year (49/38.5) that would be a huge plus for Boston.

It will be his 5th team. He's a magic unicorn capable of huge numbers. At which stop has he helped his team win?

 

[jterrell]

Smart was a huge key for the Celts so not sure I love this trade for them. They also traded a lot of depth.

I'd rather have Smart than KP and have been trying to make fake trade so get Smart to Dallas for years.
He's arguably the best on ball defender in the league.
And his contract is very good at 20M per.

KP is a very talented guy but no way I extend him at the insane rates he will ask given his injury history.

The Brogdon deal was way better for Celts.

Celts probably need those 1sts to use in trades if they are really going for it but they do have more vlaue with the new CBA so might be a sneaky piece of this that really works out.

 

[jterrell]

Are we all ready for tonight?!?!?

What: 2023 NBA Draft

When: Thursday, June 22, 8 p.m. ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

Watch: ABC (1st round only), ESPN

View the order for the opening round below:

1. San Antonio Spurs

2. Charlotte Hornets

3. Portland Trail Blazers

4. Houston Rockets

5. Detroit Pistons

6. Orlando Magic

7. Indiana Pacers

8. Washington Wizards

9. Utah Jazz

10. Dallas Mavericks

 

[jterrell]

Some chatter Im hearing on the Celtics

- Word is they may be moving a guard with Brogdon the most likely. Wont be Smart and unlikely to be Pritchard. Brogdon's $ and health make him the most likely. The move would about rebalancing the roster, with them bringing back either an wing or interior player. They don't want Pritchard because he is cheap and very popular in tje locker room. However if they do move Brogdon, he really needs to step up. They traded for Brogdon in the first place because Pritchard didnt offer enough juice, and Brogdon getting hurt was a big reason they lost the ECF. Personally I think you keep Brogdon unless you can get a healthier version of him. That is your best shot at a chip and the time is still now

- There is talk of them possibly looking to do an S&T with Grant Williams. They offered Williams 4 for 50 which he turned down amd is looking for 20 per. That is alot for him, but he may actually have a market. Id love to get Mo Bamba back in an S&T for Williams. Williams is a better fit for that team than Vanderbuilt

VERY plugged-in guy says Dallas (Tim Cato) is talking to Boston about Grant Williams in S&T at above high MLE so above 12M per year.
He'd start in Dallas alongside Luka/Kyrie.
Have zero idea what BOS would want because they are not talking about pick 10.

 

[darthseinfeld]

VERY plugged-in guy says Dallas (Tim Cato) is talking to Boston about Grant Williams in S&T at above high MLE so above 12M per year.
He'd start in Dallas alongside Luka/Kyrie.
Have zero idea what BOS would want because they are not talking about pick 10.

Boston doesnt have a ton of leverage there, but I could also see that being a 3 team trade

 

[darthseinfeld]

Smart was a huge key for the Celts so not sure I love this trade for them. They also traded a lot of depth.

I'd rather have Smart than KP and have been trying to make fake trade so get Smart to Dallas for years.
He's arguably the best on ball defender in the league.
And his contract is very good at 20M per.

KP is a very talented guy but no way I extend him at the insane rates he will ask given his injury history.

The Brogdon deal was way better for Celts.

Celts probably need those 1sts to use in trades if they are really going for it but they do have more vlaue with the new CBA so might be a sneaky piece of this that really works out.

The 1st are key for me. I dont like trading Smart, but there is is some redundancy with White. Although having two lock down defenders in the back court is never a bad thing

 

[darthseinfeld]

It will be his 5th team. He's a magic unicorn capable of huge numbers. At which stop has he helped his team win?

He has also been a 1st or 2nd option. Here he will be a 3rd option

 

[darthseinfeld]

Warriors trade Poole, a protected 2030 1st rounder, and a 2027 2nd for Chris Paul

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Warriors trade Poole, a protected 2030 1st rounder, and a 2027 2nd for Chris Paul

And included last year’s pick (Ryan Rollins) in the package.

I don’t see how this moves the needle for the Dubs other than getting an expiring contract.

 

[darthseinfeld]

And included last year’s pick (Ryan Rollins) in the package.

I don’t see how this moves the needle for the Dubs other than getting an expiring contract.

Could be shaving salary before the new CBA takes into effect

 

[Rockport]

We’re back baby!!!

 

[Hardline]

Mavs select Derek Lively II out of Duke.
He is the best defensive player in this draft and had more blocked shots than Zion Williamson.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

Not sure how much of a flex that is