First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[TheMarathonContinues]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

And people trust Jerry and co. to do what most can't lol. Hit a home run lol.

 

[75boyz]

It's settled then we keep and give Dak 60 million a year and we hope the NFC East remains doggy in stature and get blown out like punks in the playoffs.
Yep, COWBOYS!!!!!

That's called relevance.
And besides the Joneses, there's a whole slew of folks here that are good with it too.

 

[SultanOfSix]

And what is it in the other rounds? Because that is the comparison that should be made. All this proves is such talent is rare, but still picking in the first round is the best chance that you’ve got at grabbing a franchise QB.

 

[rambo2]

You either are set at the position or looking to upgrade.

What you should not do is "settle" and be satisfied with non playoff winning results after a 5 year contract.

He's either got it or he doesn't.

Regular season titles is not THE goal.

IF you **** up and draft a dud, so be it.
Draft another one until you get the right one.
That's how the GM game should be played.

jmo

The Brocos should have dumped Elway after 5 years.

 

[cowboybish]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Yes, but I wonder how many of those quarterbacks have started in their first season, and how many have sent the bench learning for one or two seasons. That could, and can make a difference in success. And also, let’s not forget it still need a good team around them.

 

[America's Cowboy]

What are the odds of getting a solid young QB without drafting one at all? I wonder if anyone has that chart

Who did you have in mind?

 

[FanofJerry]

Could you please provide the details of this "analytics"?

If one examines the Super-Bowl winning QB's in recent history, almost all were very highly drafted, with the exception of Tom Brady.
I've posted the detailed analysis of this on the forum already.

I think it has more to do with picking almost guaranteed production players like WR and Defensive studs.....basically home run football players...over using a FRP on a QB that has a significantly lower chance of panning out than a college stud at a no-QB position.

Example of 4 years: I would rather draft 4 stud defensive player that have a high chance of panning out over using 4 picks on a QB until I hit one.

I think most on here are going to say that you keep turning over the roster until you find your Mahommes and then use FRP's for 4 years drafting Stud/Defense when you know you have your Mahommes. By the time you have players around him...he's due 25% of cap.

You can post a ton of stats that suggest non-QB positions are equal or slightly less risky than going after a QB. Im still not choosing the least likely position to succeed. Even if there is a high profile position that has a weaker success rate than QB...Im looking elsewhere other than QB with my FRP. Too hard of a position. And...fans expectations border inhumane. Basically...its be Brady or Mahommes...2 positions in history of QBs...or you aint worth a darn. 2 positions in all of NFL drafting. I doubt another position has a less success rate.

 

[Flamma]

I seen an interesting stat awhile back. No team that drafted a QB in the top 5 won a SB in many years. I think it was since 2006. I might have the year wrong. Eli wasn't drafted by the Giants.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Who did you have in mind?

Whichever QB they are most high on. My opinion has little sway in the front office.

 

[TheSport78]

Loser mentality. Jerry would still be paying Alex Smith $50 million a year because he wins regular season games. We'll pass on that Mahomes kid.

 

[Toro9]

I bet those numbers go up when you let them sit for at least a year.

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

The Brocos should have dumped Elway after 5 years.

Dak has been here for 8. Elway had been to 2 CCG's and 2 Super Bowls in that same time frame. Peyton Manning would be a more realistic comparison, but even he had been to a CCG, and knew how to properly dissect defenses.

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

Who did you have in mind?

Michael Penix Jr

 

[America's Cowboy]

Whichever QB they are most high on. My opinion has little sway in the front office.

Hope your Eagles do that.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Michael Penix Jr

Interesting.

 

[Adreme]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Man that 2020 draft was so good. Even Hurts in the second round hit so that is possibly the only draft of the past 30 years that the first 5 QBs were all hits.

 

[Adreme]

I gotta be honest though this CBS article is far more charitable than I am. Justin Fields is a miss and there is a reason no one wants him as their starter. Giving Trevor Lawrence "Solid Result" is hilarious to me when we are 3 years into his career and he has had maybe 1/3 of that be good football (last half of 2nd year and first half of year 3) and I have to lower the bar to define what is good. Also calling Daniel Jones a "Mixed Result" is insulting to everyone else on that list. He is also a clear miss who will be a career backup.

Basically they are being WAY too generous with what gets into mixed result to even get that number as high as it is.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Unlike every other position a Miss at QB means your entire franchise is going to suck for a few years.

Only if you are dumb enough to stay with the experiment and don't actually cut your losses.

 

[Brax]

The Brocos should have dumped Elway after 5 years.

After he made a SB in his 4th season, you are a funny guy extend Dak after 8 dismal seasons funny and a true fan you are

 

[Shane612]

You either are set at the position or looking to upgrade.

What you should not do is "settle" and be satisfied with non playoff winning results after a 5 year contract.

He's either got it or he doesn't.

Regular season titles is not THE goal.

IF you **** up and draft a dud, so be it.
Draft another one until you get the right one.
That's how the GM game should be played.

jmo

Oh...I don't know....
You can have a good smart QB and surround him with a good team, with a good coaching staff, and win championships.
.
But hasn't worked in Dallas though... It's either the coaches or the QB isn't good enough, or both.