First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[CT Dal Fan]

Elli, Payton, Aaron, Ben, Mathew, Patrick, Joe ...... so 7 different QB's.

How hard is it to find a SB winning QB in the 4th round or undrafted ? Because that's where the Jones's have looked since Troy won 3.

The thing is the Jones boys have hardly even tried drafting QB's. Since Aikman the only QB they drafted to be "the guy" was Quincy Carter in the second round in '01. They lucked into their last two franchise QB's in Romo (undrafted) and Dak (4th round but drafted to be developed behind Romo).

 

[KJJ]

Think Love has a shot based on his trajectory in the back half of the last season, however, too early to tell.

He definitely has a shot but the jury is still out.

 

[1942willys]

He definitely has a shot but the jury is still out.

I need to see at least three years of that sort of performance before I get out the anointing oil.

 

[Blitzen]

they have had those seasons, what changed...again this club was a 5 win team during Campo, Gailey...what changed..he raised the money and built a new stadium? Oooh yes Bill P came here and won playoff games..wait no he didnt he couldnt overcome Jerrry...was Romo not brought in during the Tuna's tenure?..again what changed....

Did the team improve or get worse following all the team building Parcells did while here? Campo seasons also included no 1st round picks for two seasons because of the Galloway trade. And the team’s draft and scouting department were a sham. Hiring Bill was a big decision for Jerry and Bill for that matter. Who knows how far and how long they would have fallen if not for Bill?

 

[CowboyFrog]

Did the team improve or get worse following all the team building Parcells did while here? Campo seasons also included no 1st round picks for two seasons because of the Galloway trade. And the team’s draft and scouting department were a sham. Hiring Bill was a big decision for Jerry and Bill for that matter. Who knows how far and how long they would have fallen if not for Bill?

the team got better under MM we have not seen back to back winning seasons in a while, but we all know the question, what happened in tjhe playoffs. Jerry's ego is the only thing that matters and until thats not the leading driver of this Franchise (Stephen may have the same ego) things will not change because the approach to building the team will not change.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Quincy was a 2nd rounder..we sent 2 1st to Seattle for joey Galloway...lol

Quincy would have been there in the 4th round. he was a 2nd only becuase the Jonesboys suck at drafting, and often reach for guys very early. The other owners know this and bait the Jonesboys into taking losers duds two rounds early simply by claiming "interest" in players.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Your best odds on hitting on a QB is in the top 10 but even then it’s about 50-50. The odds drop even lower after the top 10. Lamar Jackson is the only QB I can think of in the last several years who was taken after the top 10 in the first round that’s developed into a franchise QB. I’m a believer that you don’t take a QB in the first round unless you’re in dire need of a QB. Other than that I’ll take my chances later in the draft, that way if I miss it’s not a huge setback.

I don't disagree. its about odds/probabilities. the odds for 5th round and later is probably 3%. or less.

 

[Blitzen]

the team got better under MM we have not seen back to back winning seasons in a while, but we all know the question, what happened in tjhe playoffs. Jerry's ego is the only thing that matters and until thats not the leading driver of this Franchise (Stephen may have the same ego) things will not change because the approach to building the team will not change.

Jerry and son would eventually make enormous changes if the team was really terrible and ratings started slipping and national broadcasts started going to the other teams. It could take a string of seasons but it would happen.

 

[KJJ]

I don't disagree. it’s about odds/probabilities. the odds for 5th round and later is probably 3%. or less.

It’s almost lottery odds coming up with a QB that can win SB after the 3rd round because very few in the history of the league have. One of the reasons so many first round QBs have won SBs is because so many QBs have been drafted in the first round. That increases the odds. A lot of teams reach in the first round for a QB.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

It’s almost lottery odds coming up with a QB that can win SB after the 3rd round because very few in the history of the league have. One of the reasons so many first round QBs have won SBs is because so many QBs have been drafted in the first round. That increases the odds. A lot of teams reach in the first round for a QB.

It's largely because the teams picking those first round QB's never maximized what they had around said QB. When you have the teams with the worst records picking they are teams who have more needs than just a QB. It's very rare you see a situation like KC.

 

[KJJ]

It's largely because the teams picking those first round QB's never maximized what they had around said QB. When you have the teams with the worst records picking they are teams who have more needs than just a QB. It's very rare you see a situation like KC.

The biggest problem is those first round QBs are usually going to bad teams. They’re looked at as the savior. Everything gets thrown on them and many end up losing their confidence. It’s the first time in their football lives they receive fan abuse. A lot of them should have never been high picks because teams reach for QBs. As for KC they had a good team when Mahomes arrived but he turned them into a great team. They’re just another team without him. They really didn’t look that great last season but Mahomes is the difference.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

It's largely because the teams picking those first round QB's never maximized what they had around said QB. When you have the teams with the worst records picking they are teams who have more needs than just a QB. It's very rare you see a situation like KC.

to your point most of those QBs go to bad teams, but those teams have several years to stock the team and FA.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Draft a Rookie QB= 50% chance he sucks.

Start Dak Prescott = 100% chance of playoff failure

 

[cald0d30s0]

Jerry has never drafted a QB in round one except when Jimmy drafted Aikman so the fuhrer doesn’t operate that way. Now, elite franchises do.

Thats why we have been mediocre for 29 years…

 

[ArtClink]

Thats why we have been mediocre for 29 years…

Yes sir, that and 100 other decisions made by the fuhrer. What a bright future we have to look forward to. Glad the fuhrer is "all in" this year!

 

[kskboys]

Quincy would have been there in the 4th round. he was a 2nd only becuase the Jonesboys suck at drafting, and often reach for guys very early. The other owners know this and bait the Jonesboys into taking losers duds two rounds early simply by claiming "interest" in players.

They absolutely do, and it's been talked about.

 

[kskboys]

It's so simple a caveman could figure it out. Look just at the last draft:

Young: 3rd round talent
Stroud: 1st round talent
Richardson: 4th round talent

That's just the last draft. Happens almost every year. Should Kenny Pickett have been taken in the first? No way. Fields was a 2nd/3rd round talent.

Yes, there are other reasons, but the biggest reason that 1st round QB's fail is because their talent level did not warrant being taken in the 1st. They are constantly overdrafted because of the extreme importance of the position.