First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[rambo2]

After he made a SB in his 4th season, you are a funny guy extend Dak after 8 dismal seasons funny and a true fan you are

Lol, everybody is funny in here and full of bs.

 

[MikeT22]

And what is it in the other rounds? Because that is the comparison that should be made. All this proves is such talent is rare, but still picking in the first round is the best chance that you’ve got at grabbing a franchise QB.

Amazing how so many are afraid that they'd rather have us try and find QB's on day 3 of the draft or later.

 

[Cowboys5217]

Not drafting QB's with FRP's is where Dallas has been spot on and the analytics backs our FO up on it.

Yet...the pro-numbers Dak-haters are left scrambling and move the goal posts to something else to complain about when they have an argument lost.

Did the analytics factor in not even making it to a conference title game in nearly 30 years? Seems like an important factor that comes through loud and clear in the Cowboys case.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

After he made a SB in his 4th season, you are a funny guy extend Dak after 8 dismal seasons funny and a true fan you are

Dak fanatics have lost their minds.

 

[rambo2]

Dak fanatics have lost their minds.

Lol, they should trade for Foles.

 

[removed_20241105]

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

Was certain your post would be ignored cuz it’s not convenient. Well done. Should end the nonsense of this thread but it won’t.

 

[Mr_437]

Problem with those 1st round picks is probably going to a trash team. Dak stepped into a ready bake Playoff contender, lucky him.

Build a real good team over throwing crazy money at a QB who isn't getting your team over the hump. Rush (UDFA) has a 5-1 record, he had a good team backing him up. 1st round to UDFA build the team. Brock Purdy example too.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Considering the kind of money college players are now making, I think it will get worse. Many of these kids have millions in the bank before their 2nd, 3rd or 4th year of playing college ball even starts. Saban mentioned this as one of the main reasons he retired. Deion already telling cold-weather teams not to draft his kid. This kid BTW, just bought Deion a house worth a few million.

 

[john van brocklin]

What are the odds of getting a solid young QB without drafting one at all? I wonder if anyone has that chart

It's in Jerry's back pocket.

 

[Chasing6]

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

Goal of the franchise is to build a winning team that has a QB on it.

 

[rnr_honeybadger]

Lol, they should trade for Foles.

Hell at this point Tom Brady out of retirement would be an upgrade.

 

[Chasing6]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

I thought we had Phenom Trance who was the 3rd overall pick, he is young with a lot of potential. He is being mentored by QB wizard McCarthy and he should be ready after watching for another year.

 

[Whiskey Cowboy]

Interesting.

Likely falls to 24, likely BPA. Taking a QB may be far more important than any other position with the current uncertainty. It gives the front office leverage, and if Dak fails this season, they have a second year blue chipper at the helm, competing with Lance.

Think about when Aikman retired. They were caught with their pants down and were forced to reach in the second for Carter. Right now they at least have Lance to try out if negotiations go bad, but his rookie deal is almost up. You bring in Penix, if he wins the gig, you have 4 years of cheap QB play. It allows you to re-sign Parsons. It gives Lamb an accurate passer, which lessens the wear and tear on his body, as well as opens up the route tree, creating more opportunity to become the best in the league.

Something to consider from Dak's standpoint. If he comes in and performs anywhere close to Dak's level...Longshot, but possible with this player...it would make more sense to go with the young guy. Dak could get Romo'd. How does that affect free agency negotiations the following year? Pretty good incentive to waive that no trade clause, no?

 

[plymkr]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

Thanks for posting this article. A couple things stood out to me. One is, whether you hate him or love him, Dak is by far the best QB in that draft class.

Another thing that stands out to me is how bad the QB play has become. And what surprises me is how bad the QB play is with all the rules helping the passing game.

When Aikman and the Cowboys peaked, 92/93 here’s the QBs in the league: Marino, Young, Montana, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Farve, all HOFers. Other studs but not HOFers were Phill Simms, Randall Cunningham, Jeff Hostetler, Jeff George(physical skills but total nutcase and attitude issues)

Right now the only bona fide HOFer is Mahomes and Rodgers, but Rodgers is getting old.

It seems like the league has dropped off with elite HOFer QB play as it makes the game completely about the offense. It’s weird.

 

[rambo2]

Hell at this point Tom Brady out of retirement would be an upgrade.

Lol, they said Brady sucked when Dak beat him.

 

[McKDaddy]

You do whatever you have to do in order to find a competent player at the most important position.

Anything less is just asinine. At least if your goal is to win on the field.

 

[McKDaddy]

Dak has been here for 8. Elway had been to 2 CCG's and 2 Super Bowls in that same time frame. Peyton Manning would be a more realistic comparison, but even he had been to a CCG, and knew how to properly dissect defenses.

And both had talent visible to even the least skilled talent evaluators.

 

[kskboys]

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

Very well done.

 

[75boyz]

Oh...I don't know....
You can have a good smart QB and surround him with a good team, with a good coaching staff, and win championships.
.
But hasn't worked in Dallas though... It's either the coaches or the QB isn't good enough, or both.

The Super Bowl winning quarterbacks are more often than not more highly pedigreed than the last 2 decades of UDFA (Romo) and 4th rd project Dak that Dallas has attempted to win with.

The outliers are the Jim McMahons, Brad Johnsons and Trent Dilfers of the world who all had generational defenses supporting them.

Foles was on an unlikely hot streak at the right time.

Most SuperBowls are won by QBs with pedigree not bus drivers.

 

[Kevinicus]

Thanks for posting this article. A couple things stood out to me. One is, whether you hate him or love him, Dak is by far the best QB in that draft class.

Another thing that stands out to me is how bad the QB play has become. And what surprises me is how bad the QB play is with all the rules helping the passing game.

When Aikman and the Cowboys peaked, 92/93 here’s the QBs in the league: Marino, Young, Montana, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Farve, all HOFers. Other studs but not HOFers were Phill Simms, Randall Cunningham, Jeff Hostetler, Jeff George(physical skills but total nutcase and attitude issues)

Right now the only bona fide HOFer is Mahomes and Rodgers, but Rodgers is getting old.

It seems like the league has dropped off with elite HOFer QB play as it makes the game completely about the offense. It’s weird.

I'll take Goff, thanks.