First Round QB Success Rate in last 15 years

[TwistedL0g1k]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

 

[superonyx]

Unlike every other position a Miss at QB means your entire franchise is going to suck for a few years.

 

[KJJ]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

I’ve always said your chances of drafting a bust at QB in the first round is about 50%.

 

[jterrell]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

And if you remove pick 1 overall of each draft you lose 4 of the 7 Home runs.

Thats important because it is so hard to get 1 overall.

 

[America's Cowboy]

But I want Dak gone!

Waaaah!!!

 

[TequilaCowboy]

Drafting a QB in the first round and hitting on him has always been a crapshoot. Which is why drafting a QB in other rounds beside the first every year is even more important. How many very good QBs have come from the remaining rounds? Dallas doesn't do that much either. Getting one in as an UDFA is even lesser of success. IOW, you should draft one every year in whatever round as long as you see some potential.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

But I want Dak gone!

Waaaah!!!

What are the odds of getting a solid young QB without drafting one at all? I wonder if anyone has that chart

 

[CT Dal Fan]

You either are set at the position or looking to upgrade.

What you should not do is "settle" and be satisfied with non playoff winning results after a 5 year contract.

He's either got it or he doesn't.

Regular season titles is not THE goal.

IF you **** up and draft a dud, so be it.
Draft another one until you get the right one.
That's how the GM game should be played.

jmo

So just become the Browns and Commanders and just stay in a continuous rebuild for decades? Not a fun thought. And this isn't even a pro-Dak statement.

 

[ArtClink]

Jerry has never drafted a QB in round one except when Jimmy drafted Aikman so the fuhrer doesn’t operate that way. Now, elite franchises do.

 

[FanofJerry]

You either are set at the position or looking to upgrade.

What you should not do is "settle" and be satisfied with non playoff winning results after a 5 year contract.

He's either got it or he doesn't.

Regular season titles is not THE goal.

IF you **** up and draft a dud, so be it.
Draft another one until you get the right one.
That's how the GM game should be played.

jmo

"So be it"

Give me a number figure on how many years in a row a team should use a FRP on a QB before they should try something new?

Just give me a number.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

It's settled then we keep and give Dak 60 million a year and we hope the NFC East remains doggy in stature and get blown out like punks in the playoffs.
Yep, COWBOYS!!!!!

 

[FanofJerry]

Not drafting QB's with FRP's is where Dallas has been spot on and the analytics backs our FO up on it.

Yet...the pro-numbers Dak-haters are left scrambling and move the goal posts to something else to complain about when they have an argument lost.

 

[kskboys]

And if you remove pick 1 overall of each draft you lose 4 of the 7 Home runs.

Thats important because it is so hard to get 1 overall.

And if you remove the QB's who were overdrafted, the miss rate is around 30%.

 

[kskboys]

Not drafting QB's with FRP's is where Dallas has been spot on and the analytics backs our FO up on it.

Yet...the pro-numbers Dak-haters are left scrambling and move the goal posts to something else to complain about when they have an argument lost.

No they don't. Cherry picked analytics, which can be twisted to prove anything you want.

 

[kskboys]

"So be it"

Give me a number figure on how many years in a row a team should use a FRP on a QB before they should try something new?

Just give me a number.

Infinite.

 

[ShortRound]

It's settled then we keep and give Dak 60 million a year and we hope the NFC East remains doggy in stature and get blown out like punks in the playoffs.
Yep, COWBOYS!!!!!

Year 10 baby.

 

[TwistedL0g1k]

Not drafting QB's with FRP's is where Dallas has been spot on and the analytics backs our FO up on it.

Yet...the pro-numbers Dak-haters are left scrambling and move the goal posts to something else to complain about when they have an argument lost.

Could you please provide the details of this "analytics"?

If one examines the Super-Bowl winning QB's in recent history, almost all were very highly drafted, with the exception of Tom Brady.
I've posted the detailed analysis of this on the forum already.

 

[Chasing6]

Very good article with analysis of every 1st round QB in the last 15 years:

CBS Article

Summary stats from CBS article:

Final tally​

Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE	TOTAL	PERCENT
Home run	7	15%
Solid result	3	6%
Mixed result	9	19%
Incomplete	4	8%
Miss	23	50%

You can't talk numbers with peoples feelings. They don't comprehend numbers.

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

Not drafting QB's with FRP's is where Dallas has been spot on and the analytics backs our FO up on it.

Backs them up in what way? What is the goal of your franchise, to get a pro bowl QB or a successful playoff QB?

Conference Championship game starting QBs based on round drafted since Dak Has been drafted:

2023
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 7th

2022
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 2nd vs 7th

2021
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2020
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 6th

2019
AFC: 1st vs 1st
NFC: 1st vs 2nd

2018
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st/2nd**

2017
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st/3rd* vs Undrafted

2016
AFC: 1st vs 6th
NFC: 1st vs 1st


The 6ths are of course all Tom Brady. We can go back further and see Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Donovan Mcnabb each started a slew of CCG’s dating back to 2000. Probability dictates that while it is technically possible to make a conference championship game with a QB taken outside of the first round, it is overwhelmingly more likely get there with a 1st round pick.

The draft isn’t about guarantees, the draft is about probability. Nothing is assured, but you make the best choices possible based on the data of probability. Dallas is fortunate that Dak is as good as he is from the fourth round, but he has spent enough time to prove he is not Tom Brady, and the team is unable to build a team around him in the manner of Brock Purdy.

Arguments in semantics:

(*: 2017 NFCCG was started by third round pick Nick Foles, who is responsible for winning that game and moving on, but the act of participating in that game and getting it at home was by 1st round pick Carson Wentz, who solidified home field advantage and a first round by with his 11-2 record before getting injured. So while yes Foles started the game, the team got to the game due more to the 1st round pick.)

(**: 2018 NFCCG was started by 2nd round pick Drew Brees. Drew, however, was drafted 32nd overall in a season where there were only 31 teams. For intents of this exercise, he would be considered a 1st round pick by today’s draft standards, as is 2023 AFCCG participant Lamar Jackson, who was chosen with the same pick.)

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So just become the Browns and Commanders and just stay in a continuous rebuild for decades? Not a fun thought. And this isn't even a pro-Dak statement.

Browns are not rebuilding. They won 11 games and made the playoffs. They have a talented roster.

Commodes have been doing something for the past few decades but I wouldn't call it rebuilding so much as repetitious, poorly conceived all ins and misevaluations.

The main concern is that Jones would not have learned from how he responded to Aikman's retirement. Trading away/using premium assets and then hyping questionable prospects in Hutchinson and Henson for example.

Even then he is better positioned because of Lance. He has a QB that can play and been in the system in hand. If he sucks so be it.