Last decade of Cowboys Day 3 draft picks and how they did

[CCBoy]

Here’s a good 2024 article on the “hit rate” for RBs.
https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/2024/04/12/running-back-hit-rates-by-nfl-draft-round/

Basically it says NFL averages for RBs who do well:

• Round 1 hit rate for RBs over last decade: 12/16 =75%
• Round 2 : 50%
• Round 3: 33%
• Round 4: 16%
• Round 5: 9%
• Round 6: 6%
• Round 7: 4%

After round 3, it’s a long shot.

College football talents, organization, and use hasn't changed in projections. Then on a player basis, commitment and drive no longer matter? Oh yea, coaching directions...

 

[CCBoy]

BULLETT!!!!
I see what Shotty and Jerry are trying to do and replicate what they had with the DeMarco Murray team of the past. Only thing missing is the RB, so how is this going to work out? None of these RBs come close.

Oh, talk about alert...if one puts his pants on one leg at a time, put 'em on. Right.

 

[CCBoy]

What's the league average for RBs? Personally, I think Blue and Mafah are going to make it.

Football players with dramatic talent also...

 

[Bobhaze]

Tony Dorsett and with similar qualities as shown by Blue, was really unsuccessful because of a good offensive line?

I never said Blue was or would be unsuccessful. Help me understand your point CC. There are similarities and differences between Dorsett and Blue.

Like TD, Blue is lightening fast. Also like Dorsett, Blue is not that big. Where Blue is different is unlike Dorsett, Blue was not the bell cow ball carrier in college. Blue only averaged about 9 carries a game and about 3 receptions a game last year. Dorsett averaged over 20 carries a game in college.

 

[morasp]

Depends on for how long. A one year contributor, as in plays in the “rotation” for a year - I wouldn’t classify as a hit. A guy who stays here for the length of their rookie deal and becomes a starter…that’s a hit in my book.

Take Mazi for example. Starting his third year here. He has started on occasion and is still on the roster. Is he a hit? To me he has not achieved that term yet. I guess it’s somewhat subjective

Then my projection for him is a hit.

 

[CCBoy]

I never said Blue was or would be unsuccessful. Help me understand your point CC. There are similarities and differences between Dorsett and Blue.

Like TD, Blue is lightening fast. Also like Dorsett, Blue is not that big. Where Blue is different is unlike Dorsett, Blue was not the bell cow ball carrier in college. Blue only averaged about 9 carries a game and about 3 receptions a game last year. Dorsett averaged over 20 carries a game in college.

That was pretty analytical in nature. Same talents involved and no limitations to potential except progressions by how used. Not potentials.

Similar talents can be used similarly. That depends upon how those are directed as potentials with athletes are successful depending upon opportunities. Not just statistics.

Forged in fire and came out steel still works in football. Focus at the professional level then depends upon further adaptability...not just changes in the college game itself.

John Randle, from Texas A&I, undrafted had to put weights in his underwear to even be given an opportunity to try out for defensive end. Successful?

 

[fivetwos]

Good post. Which is why for me I don't get invested that much on who they pick in day 3. The draft is a crapshoot, it becomes even longer odds as the days go from Thursday to Saturday. Feel like the top of the 4th is when teams can regroup and take those guys who someone slipped from should of been day 2 guys. 6th and 7th round picks are just securing priority free agents.

Ideally, day 1 pick is a starter/building block. Booker fits that.
Day 2 should also have starters, but may be a year of development. EZ and Revel fit that.
Day 3 to me, is the traits, potential, guys with flaws you hope with a prayer they can overcome type of picks that can be solid depth, role players or possibly diamond in the rough starter. Very rarely will you get a legit starter.

With running backs, I feel like one of Blue and/or Mafah, can provide solid play. Replaceable? Sure, but Blue has speed so he could be a good change of pace back. To be determined how Mafah can turnout, but worthy of a hail marry pick

It’s essentially one starter (at about a 70% hit rate) and the rest is hope.

The draft is how you need to build a core no doubt, but how this FO comes to the conclusion that it’s also how to improve a contending team to get them over the top because it’s cheaper is just maddening. It doesn’t work and it’s been proven again and again.

If you’re a normal entity/organization, you learn from failure and make adjustments. Nope, not these two. They are great billionaires and better than everyone else. They’ve got this.

I mean, honestly think about not signing a significant FA for THIRTEEN years. They fully believe they are nailing it because of beating up on a bad division for so long. The truth comes out when they face legit teams with legit coaches and schemes. Meanwhile Jerry sits in his suite and can’t figure out why it didn’t go his way yet again, since he is so great. He is a HOFer after all….probably not for the reasons he thinks.

I honestly wouldn’t complain so much if they would even consider change

 

[Creeper]

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

I agree. Which is why I am not convinced that taking two DTs in the 7th round and two RBs in 5 and 7 is not enough to get hyped up over this team. I like Blue, but he is not a full time RB. Then again we said that about Pollard too. The two DTs taken late will struggle to make the team. The only reason Toia has any chance is because the Cowboys are so weak at that position.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I can't you would cast aspersions on Cheap Steve's master plan to replace starters with his beloved fifth and sixth round comp picks.

What a bad fan you are, Bob.

 

[John813]

It’s essentially one starter (at about a 70% hit rate) and the rest is hope.

The draft is how you need to build a core no doubt, but how this FO comes to the conclusion that it’s also how to improve a contending team to get them over the top because it’s cheaper is just maddening. It doesn’t work and it’s been proven again and again.

If you’re a normal entity/organization, you learn from failure and make adjustments. Nope, not these two. They are great billionaires and better than everyone else. They’ve got this.

I mean, honestly think about not signing a significant FA for THIRTEEN years. They fully believe they are nailing it because of beating up on a bad division for so long. The truth comes out when they face legit teams with legit coaches and schemes. Meanwhile Jerry sits in his suite and can’t figure out why it didn’t go his way yet again, since he is so great. He is a HOFer after all….probably not for the reasons he thinks.

I honestly wouldn’t complain so much if they would even consider change

I agree. It's been over a decade now of the same formula and same end results.

Constantly drafting and developing. Outside of 3-8 core pieces, Dallas will just let free agents walk, don't sign starters and use the draft to find starters or key contributors.
In this day and age, you need to do more to get over that hump.

 

[CCBoy]

I agree. Which is why I am not convinced that taking two DTs in the 7th round and two RBs in 5 and 7 is not enough to get hyped up over this team. I like Blue, but he is not a full time RB. Then again we said that about Pollard too. The two DTs taken late will struggle to make the team. The only reason Toia has any chance is because the Cowboys are so weak at that position.

At what age did you move 500 pounds in a bench or squat 650 pounds?

You don't even offer character differentiations.

Where Jesse James left Spanish gold isn't even being offered as to where following him being murdered...

 

[Bigrandrn]

Jerry's teams don't tend to like big NT's that don't have any rush ability. Can't say if it's Jerry or pretty much every single coordinator or both. Remember they finally signed hankins, improved the run defense but as cheap as he was he only lasted 1.5 years here with no replacement.

Yeah, that’s been kind of a dumb approach by them imo…….decades of examples of big DTs being useful, not everyone need to be a 288lb freak like Aaron Donald….like you said Hankins came in and helped a good amount so hopefully they rethink this and go with at least the 1T being a beast. Not a lot of Chris Jones or Geno Atkins out there.

 

[dupree89]

Three immediate big points:

• I liked the guys we drafted. Especially in rounds 1-3. Tyler Booker, Donovan Ezeiruaku and Shevon Revel are going to have impact almost immediately.
• I also believe we did not adequately address the biggest position needs we had going into the draft: DT, RB AND WR.
• Yes, on Day 3, we did draft speedy RB Jaydon Blue, DTs Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote and power back Phil Mafah. But the odds of those Day 3 guys becoming starters or even big contributors according to history are low.

So…What are the odds that a Day 3 Cowboys draft pick will ever become a primary starter for us? Here’s what history says:

• From 2015 through 2024 the Cowboys have used a total of 54 picks on Day 3 - 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th round prospects.
• So here are ALL the Day 3 picks the Cowboys have had the last decade by year (multi-year starters in bold)
  • 2015: LB Damien Wilson, DE Ryan Russell, LB Mark Nzechoa, OT Lawrence Gibson, TE Geoff Swaim.
  • 2016: DE Charles Tapper, QB Dak Prescott, CB Anthony Brown, S Kavin Frazier, RB Darius Jackson, TE Rico Gathers.
  • 2017: WR Ryan Switzer, S Xavier Woods, DT Joie Ivey, WR Noah Brown, DT Jordan Carrell
  • 2018: DE Dorance Armstrong, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Mike White, LB Chris Covington, WR Cedric Wilson, RB Bo Scarborough.
  • 2019: RB Tony Pollard, CB Michael Jackson, DE Joe Jackson, S Donovan Wilson, RB Mike Webber, DE Jalen Jenks.
  • 2020: CB Reggie Robinson III, C Tyler Biadz, DT Bradley Anae, QB Ben DiNucci.
  • 2021: LB Jabril Cox, OL Josh Ball, WR Simi Fehoko, DT Quinton Bohanna, S Israel Mukamu, OL Matt Farniok.
  • 2022: TE Jake Ferguson, OT Matt Waletzko, CB Daron Bland, LB Damone Clark, DT John Ridgeway, LB Devin Harper.
  • 2023: DL Vilami Fehoko, OL Asim Richards, CB Eric Scott, RB Deuce Vaughn, WR Jalen Brooks
  • 2024: CB Calen Carson, WR Ryan Flournoy, OL Nathan Thomas, DL Justin Thomas.
• Of those 54 Day 3 draft picks the last decade, 11 became starters. Which is about 20%,, slightly above league average of 17%.

So again, I like a lot of the guys we drafted. But we cannot depend on the Day 3 draftees to fix us at DT or RB. (We didn’t draft a WR) I believe the FO is still working on picking up a WR and another RB. They should.

this was some serious work compiling this, thank you Robert. Great material.

 

[Pass2Run]

Toia is only a run stopper. No pass rush upside. But we have pass rush in spades so that's OK.

BTW, Noah Brown was a hit. Ridgeway and Ced Wilson too.

 

[Diehardblues]

I like Blue and I’m sure a lot of teams were looking at him. He’s just not going to be “the answer” at RB. He’s super fast and we need that but even at Texas he only averaged 12 touches a game.

I’m glad we have Blue and I believe he has lots of juice to help this offense. He just isn’t enough to “fix” this offense.

Right. He’s more of a 3rd down and or passing downs receiver. But he does provide at least potential of big play ability. A good 5th round pick. I had my eye on Brooks from Texas Tech after leading Big 12 in rushing. We had an opportunity to get him. I was surprised he went much later. And Scattebo was another I had my eye on. He went in 4th round.

It looks like we are going with RB by Committee which isn’t IMO a solution. Maybe we can pick someone up who gets cut or released when teams get down to 53. Otherwise while Blue may be another weapon probably not enough without help.

If we were really looking for a starter third or 4th round is where we needed to be.

 

[CCBoy]

Right. He’s more of a 3rd down and or passing downs receiver. But he does provide at least potential of big play ability. A good 5th round pick. I had my eye on Brooks from Texas Tech after leading Big 12 in rushing. We had an opportunity to get him. I was surprised he went much later. And Scattebo was another I had my eye on. He went in 4th round.

It looks like we are going with RB by Committee which isn’t IMO a solution. Maybe we can pick someone up who gets cut or released when teams get down to 53. Otherwise while Blue may be another weapon probably not enough without help.

If we were really looking for a starter third or 4th round is where we needed to be.

Here and now, this fan bets Blue has 800 yards rushing and 300 receiving only to contribute 1100 total yards and 8 TD's. By what is suggested by you, it doesn't mean a thing or raise productions with flat footed opposing linebackers.

I was a college level linebacker...naw, doesn't mean a thing.